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万国数据(GDS):全球AI基建下乘势而起的中国IDC巨头(数据中心系列深度之八)
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-26 12:01
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese IDC (Internet Data Center) industry, benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services. It has a significant operational capacity and is expanding both domestically and internationally [6][40]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 114.78 billion, 129.92 billion, and 146.34 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EBITDA of 52.81 billion, 58.55 billion, and 64.76 billion CNY [7][40]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million CNY) for the years 2023 to 2027 is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 9,782 - 2024: 10,322 - 2025E: 11,478 - 2026E: 12,992 - 2027E: 14,634 - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 4.9%, 5.5%, 11.2%, 13.2%, and 12.6% respectively [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period is expected to show significant growth, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and market demand [6][28]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is recognized as the top player in the third-party IDC sector in China, with a comprehensive service capability and a strong operational footprint [48]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates data centers with a total IT power of 1,326 MW, leading the industry in terms of scale and operational capacity [48][52]. Strategic Expansion and Globalization - The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, to meet the growing demand from global cloud service providers [6][40]. - The DayOne division, focused on international operations, has significant growth potential, with a projected operational capacity of over 1.5 GW [6][40]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IDC industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand balance, driven by the increasing capital expenditures from cloud service providers and the rising need for AI infrastructure [40][41]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving landscape, particularly in key regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [40][42].
万国数据-SW(09698):全球AI基建下乘势而起的中国IDC巨头(数据中心系列深度之八)
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-26 08:58
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese IDC market, benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure and data center services. It has a significant operational capacity and is expanding both domestically and internationally [6][7]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 114.78 billion, 129.92 billion, and 146.34 billion CNY respectively, alongside EBITDA of 52.81 billion, 58.55 billion, and 64.76 billion CNY [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a focus on customized solutions to a global expansion strategy, establishing a strong presence in key economic regions and overseas markets [6][18]. 2. IDC Industry Leadership - The company is recognized as the leading third-party IDC service provider in China, with a comprehensive service capability and a significant operational footprint of 1,326 MW IT power as of mid-2025 [6][55]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow, driven by both domestic and international cloud service providers, enhancing the company's market position [6][45]. 3. DayOne Global Strategy - The company is expanding its global footprint through DayOne, focusing on high-demand regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe, with a robust pipeline of projects and customer orders [6][3][7]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a market capitalization of 80.3 billion HKD based on projected EBITDA multiples for its domestic and international segments [6][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBITDA margin, with significant improvements in revenue growth rates observed in the first half of 2025 [6][37]. 5. Market Dynamics - The IDC market is characterized by a complementary evolution between first-tier cities and emerging nodes, with a focus on low-latency computing needs and localized capabilities [6][45]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-driven computing infrastructure, with a strategic focus on resource allocation in key regions [6][45].