万国数据-SW 全球 AI 基建下乘势而起的中国 IDC 巨头（数据中心 系列深度之八） 曲☆哥 2025 年 09 月 26 日 报告原因:首次覆盖 ST N (首次评级) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 09 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币) | 40.96 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9444.22 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 48.90/17.00 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 676.26 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 1,580.10 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0937 | -年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 192% 资料来源: Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 林起贤 A0230519060002 lingx@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈力扬 (8621)23297818× chenly@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese IDC market, benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure and data center services. It has a significant operational capacity and is expanding both domestically and internationally [6][7]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 114.78 billion, 129.92 billion, and 146.34 billion CNY respectively, alongside EBITDA of 52.81 billion, 58.55 billion, and 64.76 billion CNY [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a focus on customized solutions to a global expansion strategy, establishing a strong presence in key economic regions and overseas markets [6][18]. 2. IDC Industry Leadership - The company is recognized as the leading third-party IDC service provider in China, with a comprehensive service capability and a significant operational footprint of 1,326 MW IT power as of mid-2025 [6][55]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow, driven by both domestic and international cloud service providers, enhancing the company's market position [6][45]. 3. DayOne Global Strategy - The company is expanding its global footprint through DayOne, focusing on high-demand regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe, with a robust pipeline of projects and customer orders [6][3][7]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a market capitalization of 80.3 billion HKD based on projected EBITDA multiples for its domestic and international segments [6][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBITDA margin, with significant improvements in revenue growth rates observed in the first half of 2025 [6][37]. 5. Market Dynamics - The IDC market is characterized by a complementary evolution between first-tier cities and emerging nodes, with a focus on low-latency computing needs and localized capabilities [6][45]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-driven computing infrastructure, with a strategic focus on resource allocation in key regions [6][45].

IDC 篇：周期中成长，迎来又一春 20250817 摘要 中国 AI 模型预计在今年第四季度出现显著变化，尽管目前海外发展较快， 国内模型尚不成熟，但未来可期。 IDC 产业本质是数字房产，与数据和算力需求呈周期性成长关系，AI 驱 动下迎来新一轮扩容，需关注供需格局变化。 IDC 建设成本高昂，每兆瓦约 3,000 万元，但现金流表现优于利润，上 架率、机柜单价和数量是核心要素，头部厂商优势明显。 云计算市场存在供需错配，但 AI 需求增长有望改善供需格局，带来投资 机会，需求快速扩张并反转为需大于供。 数据中心兼具科技与房地产属性，收入主要来自租金，区位对价格影响 大，技术创新推动数据中心需求增长。 全球 IDC 市场中美占据近半壁江山，美国占 34%，中国占 14%，中国 市场运营商主导，第三方服务商持续追赶。 AI 转型将显著推动 IDC 行业发展，预计到 2025 年中国算力规模将达到 1,037.4 亿 Flops，数据中心规模复合增速为 38.9%。 Q&A 国内运营基础资源产业链的未来发展趋势如何？ 国内运营基础资源产业链的未来发展趋势非常值得重视，主要有三个核心原因。 首先，AI 的大趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest adjustments to the MSCI China Index, which will include 14 new stocks and exclude 17 stocks, effective August 26, 2025. The new additions reflect a strong focus on technology innovation and biopharmaceuticals, aligning with international capital's interest in China's growth sectors [1][5]. Group 1: New Additions and Exclusions - 14 new stocks (5 A-shares and 9 Hong Kong stocks) have been added, with a significant presence in technology and biopharmaceutical sectors, indicating a trend towards innovation [1][2]. - Notable new additions include CITIC Bank (total market value of $66.594 billion), Horizon Robotics (market value of $11.919 billion), and others, while stocks like Huaneng Water Power and Supor have been removed [1][3]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Liquidity - The newly added stocks generally exhibit high market capitalization, with all having a market value above $6 billion, and four exceeding $10 billion, indicating robust growth potential [3][4]. - High-growth stocks such as Giant Network (137% year-to-date increase) and Jingwang Electronics (nearly 120% increase) demonstrate strong market performance and trading activity [3][4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Preferences and Policy Alignment - Over 70% of the new constituents are from technology and pharmaceutical sectors, aligning with foreign institutional investors' recent recommendations to overweight sectors like AI and biotechnology [3][4]. - The adjustments reflect MSCI's quantitative screening standards, ensuring that included companies meet the long-term investment needs of international capital [4]. Group 4: Increase in Hong Kong Stock Representation - The inclusion of 9 Hong Kong stocks (64% of new additions) highlights a recovery in the Hong Kong market, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors since 2025 [4]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Implications - The inclusion in the MSCI global index is expected to attract approximately $12.5 trillion in international capital for passive allocation, enhancing liquidity and global visibility for these companies [5]. - The common characteristics of the newly added stocks can be summarized as "driven by technological innovation, biopharmaceutical research, high market capitalization, high growth potential, high liquidity, and foreign investor favor," aligning with China's industrial upgrade trends and global capital allocation demands [5].

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The REIT is based on the Guojin Data Center, a major industrial project in Kunshan, with a total net room area of 609,000 square meters as of the end of 2024[1] - The initial pricing range for the REIT is set at 2.014 - 3.021 CNY per share, corresponding to a P/FFO of 12.39 to 18.58 times, which is higher than the comparable Southern Runze Data Center REIT[1] - The projected net cash distribution rates for 2025 and 2026 are 6.05% and 6.20%, respectively, lower than those of the Southern Runze Data Center REIT[1] Group 2: Operational Performance - Revenue and EBITDA have shown a downward trend from 2022 to Q1 2025, with figures of 173.5 million, 168.3 million, 164.4 million, and 43.0 million CNY for revenue, and 149.2 million, 145.3 million, 142.1 million, and 38.1 million CNY for EBITDA[1] - The actual usage rates of cabinets improved, with the overall usage rate reaching 95.73% in Q1 2025, and the 7kW cabinets exceeding 96%[1] - The gross profit margin remained stable above 58%, with an EBITDA margin increasing from 85.99% to 87.57%[1] Group 3: Market Position and Risks - The project is backed by the leading third-party data center operator, GDS Holdings, which has 96 operational and under-construction data centers as of the end of 2024[1] - The asset valuation growth rate is 254.48%, lower than the 491.27% of the Southern Runze Data Center REIT[1] - Risks include potential price declines due to increased competition and stricter energy efficiency policies that may impact operational costs[1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese overseas investment landscape** in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting trends in **overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A)**, **foreign direct investment (FDI)**, and **contract engineering** [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by **5.4%** year-on-year in Q1 2025, surpassing the **5%** growth rate of 2024 [2][13]. - Merchandise exports increased by **7.2%** year-on-year, with trade with "Belt and Road" countries accounting for over **50%** of total trade [2][13]. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - Total FDI from China reached **$40.9 billion**, a **6.2%** increase year-on-year [7][21]. - Non-financial FDI was **$35.7 billion**, up **4.4%** year-on-year, with investments in "Belt and Road" countries amounting to **$8.9 billion**, marking a **15.6%** increase [7][21]. Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) - Chinese companies announced overseas M&A deals totaling **$8.9 billion**, a significant **77%** increase year-on-year, with the number of transactions rising by **7%** to **108** [8][29]. - In "Belt and Road" countries, M&A transactions amounted to **$3.5 billion**, a **33%** increase, although the number of deals decreased by **15%** [29]. Contract Engineering - New contracts signed for overseas engineering projects reached **$58.7 billion**, a **26%** increase year-on-year, with **$47.1 billion** of this in "Belt and Road" countries, representing **80%** of the total [10][44]. Additional Important Insights Industry Trends - The **TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications)** sector, consumer goods, and real estate were the top three sectors for M&A, each showing over **100%** growth year-on-year [12][34]. - Asia remains the primary destination for Chinese overseas M&A, with significant growth in Latin America, while North America and Oceania saw declines [12][35]. Geopolitical Challenges - The report highlights the impact of rising trade protectionism and geopolitical risks, particularly from the U.S., which has imposed significant tariffs and restrictions on Chinese goods and technology [13][16]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded global growth forecasts for 2025 to **2.8%**, reflecting increased uncertainty in the global economic landscape [16][17]. Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the report suggests that Chinese companies are likely to accelerate their shift towards high-end manufacturing and innovation, indicating a more resilient phase of globalization [2][13]. Notable Projects - Significant investments include TikTok's **$8.8 billion** data center project in Thailand and TSMC's **$100 billion** investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of Chinese overseas investments.