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CY25Q4营收创新高,2026年WFE预期上修至1350亿美元:Lam Research(LRCX)FY26Q2业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-01 13:20
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - Lam Research reported a record revenue of $5.34 billion for CY25Q4, marking a 0.40% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 22.14% year-over-year increase, achieving growth for 10 consecutive quarters [2][9]. - The company expects the global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market to reach $135 billion in 2026, with significant growth momentum anticipated in the second half of the year [3][30]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for CY25Q4 was 49.7%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter but up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding guidance [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - CY25Q4 revenue reached $5.34 billion, surpassing the guidance midpoint of $52 billion by $0.34 billion [2][9]. - For the full year 2025, revenue totaled $20.6 billion, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase [2][9]. 2. Business Segment Performance - Equipment Segment: - Storage business accounted for 34% of equipment revenue, with DRAM revenue rising to 23%, a record high [2][14]. - Foundry business represented 59% of equipment revenue, significantly up from 35% in CY24Q4 [2][14]. - Customer Support Business: Revenue was approximately $2 billion, with a 12% quarter-over-quarter and 14% year-over-year increase [3][15]. 3. Regional Market Performance - Revenue from mainland China accounted for 35% of total revenue, down 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but slightly above initial expectations [3][16]. - Taiwan and South Korea each contributed 20% to total revenue, with South Korea showing significant quarter-over-quarter growth [3][17][18]. 4. Performance Guidance - For CY2026Q1, the company projects revenue of approximately $5.7 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 49% ± 1% [3][32]. - The company anticipates significant year-over-year growth for the entire year of 2026, primarily driven by the second half [3][32]. 5. Demand Situation Analysis - The global WFE market size is expected to approach $110 billion in 2025 and reach $135 billion in 2026, with demand growth concentrated in the second half of the year [30]. - Investment growth is led by DRAM and advanced logic foundry sectors, while NAND market demand is boosted by high-capacity SSD applications and AI inference scenarios [30].