新能源光伏及半导体材料

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TCL科技(000100):25Q1业绩显著改善,深度受益面板供给侧格局优化
Orient Securities· 2025-05-05 15:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported significant improvement in Q1 2025, benefiting from the optimization of the panel supply-side structure. Q1 2025 revenue reached 40.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 322% to 1.013 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 5% to 164.82 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 29% to 1.564 billion yuan [1]. - The semiconductor display business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by large-size and AI applications, with Q1 2025 revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [10]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 174.37 billion yuan - 2024A: 164.82 billion yuan - 2025E: 193.69 billion yuan - 2026E: 213.92 billion yuan - 2027E: 234.97 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 4.7%, -5.5%, 17.5%, 10.4%, 9.8% [4]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 2.215 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.564 billion yuan - 2025E: 6.626 billion yuan - 2026E: 9.316 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.623 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 747.6%, -29.4%, 323.6%, 40.6%, 24.8% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023A: 0.12 yuan - 2024A: 0.08 yuan - 2025E: 0.35 yuan - 2026E: 0.50 yuan - 2027E: 0.62 yuan [4]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 14.2% (2023A), 11.6% (2024A), 15.6% (2025E), 17.5% (2026E), 19.0% (2027E) - Net Margin: 1.3% (2023A), 0.9% (2024A), 3.4% (2025E), 4.4% (2026E), 4.9% (2027E) [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 35.2 (2023A), 49.8 (2024A), 11.8 (2025E), 8.4 (2026E), 6.7 (2027E) - Price-to-Book Ratio: 1.5 (2023A), 1.5 (2024A), 1.3 (2025E), 1.2 (2026E), 1.0 (2027E) [4].