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长江期货尿素周报:宏观与产业共振尿素低位反弹-20251027
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of macro - sentiment and marginal positive factors in supply and demand, urea prices rebounded from the low level. The short - term price center of urea moved up, and the reference range of the 01 contract was 1600 - 1700. The increase in urea maintenance devices led to a decline in daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand gradually expanded, the increase in the start - up of compound fertilizers boosted the demand for urea, and the obvious destocking of port inventory alleviated the overall supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - Price: On October 24, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1642 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.05%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1565 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.56% [3][6]. - Basis: The main basis of urea weakened. On October 24, the main basis in the Henan market was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 93) - (- 65) yuan/ton [3][9]. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 77) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 78.56%, down 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 67.76%, down 3.57 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 18.26 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places are expected to resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply is still relatively sufficient [3][11]. Cost - The anthracite lump coal market was mainly stable, and the anthracite slack coal was slightly stronger. As of October 23, the tax - included price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week [3][15]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 7.39%, and that of gas - based urea was - 15.11%. Affected by the rising urea price, the urea gross profit margin rebounded slightly [15]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea production enterprises was 3.9 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 95.8%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand increased moderately, and off - season storage enterprises made appropriate purchases at low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales [19]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 27.71%, up 3.53 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.44 tons, down 0.47 tons from the previous week. The inventory pressure of domestic compound fertilizers was slightly relieved, and the destocking trend began [23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 47.44%, down 2.24 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 2.338 tons. With the resumption of production of shutdown and maintenance devices, it is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will gradually increase to about 60% next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market was enhanced [27]. Inventory - The inventory of urea enterprises was 143.3 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous week, with a narrowing increase. The urea port inventory was 37 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week. There were 5407 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 10.8140 tons, a decrease of 887 from the previous week. October is the centralized cancellation period for urea warehouse receipts [30].