[ 日本近日最新民意调查显示，高市早苗内阁的支持率下跌，最新支持率是67.5%，较上次11月的调查 下跌2.4个百分点，不支持率是20.4%。 ] "10年（2015年）前，我去日本留学时，当时100万日元的学费要7万多元人民币；如今，我辛苦干一个 月到手100万日元，换回人民币也就4万多元，凭空蒸发了2万多元人民币。"在日本生活定居的华人小王 通过社交媒体告诉第一财经记者。 近半年来，日元在外汇市场上一直处于下行通道。更意外的是，在12月19日，日本央行加息25个基点至 30年新高后，也难阻日元颓势。19日下午，日元对美元走贬至157.76的四周低点。23日日元对欧元报 183.75日元，对瑞士法郎报198.4日元，对美元略有回升至155.86日元。日元对人民币继续维持在0.045左 右，创历史最低纪录。也就是说，当前100日元能兑换到的人民币约为4.5元。与三年前相比，日元汇率 足足跌去了20%。日元依旧在历史性贬值局面中挣扎。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷教授告诉第一财经记者，按照经 济学逻辑，日本央行加息，利于日元升值，"但这一次却出现奇怪的现象：加息以后日元反而贬值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The breakup of Japan's ruling coalition raises uncertainty regarding the political landscape and economic outlook, particularly concerning the premiership bid of Sanae Takaichi, the new hardline leader of the Liberal Democratic Party [1] Market Reaction - The yen strengthened by up to 0.5% to 152.38 per dollar following the coalition split, although it was last trading at 152.73 [2] - The yield on the two-year Japanese government bond (JGB) decreased by 2 basis points to 0.905%, while the 30-year JGB yield increased by 5 basis points to 3.225% [2] Analyst Comments - Shoki Omori from Mizuho Securities indicated that if Takaichi fails to become Prime Minister and a pro-BOJ tightening candidate emerges, the market may start to price in the risk of a reversal, potentially pushing USD/JPY down, although the yen is expected to remain a funding/carry currency [2][3] - Bart Wakabayashi from State Street noted that aggressive selling of the yen occurred based on Takaichi's campaign, and the market will react if there is no consensus on her approval as Prime Minister [3] - Naka Matsuzawa from Nomura Securities mentioned that the immediate market reaction involves unwinding Takaichi trades, with two potential scenarios: the LDP retaining a solo cabinet or forming a coalition with the DPP, which could lead to a resurgence of Takaichi trades if fiscal expansion is supported [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to delay its interest rate hike plans for this year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, with economists predicting the next rate increase will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential increase of 25 basis points [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - A slight majority of economists (52%) expect that the Bank of Japan will maintain borrowing costs at 0.50% by the end of this year, a shift from previous expectations of a rise to 0.75% [1]. - Over three-quarters of respondents (40 out of 51) predict at least one rate hike by the end of March next year, with 37% forecasting the next hike in January 2025 [2]. - The interest rate futures market currently reflects an expectation of approximately 17 basis points of rate increases within this year [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Purchases - A majority of economists (17 out of 31) believe that the Bank of Japan will slow down its current quarterly reduction of approximately 4 trillion yen in government bond purchases after April next year [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan still holds about half of the outstanding Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), but has begun to reduce its purchases to move away from decades of large-scale stimulus [3]. Group 3: Long-term Bond Issuance - 75% of economists (21 out of 28) anticipate that the government will reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, with concerns over rising debt levels and declining demand from traditional buyers [3]. - The government is reportedly considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term bonds issued during low-interest periods and plans to cut the issuance of these bonds in response to rapidly rising yields [3][4].