道富银行东京分行经理哇卡巴亚什（Bart Wakabayashi）更直言："特朗普的所作所为，包括关税，只会不断增加美国不可信任的原因。而可 信度，这曾经是美元资产成为全球最安全投资的基础。作为一个负责任的投资者，这些足以让你停止投资美元资产。" 包括巴克莱银行、法巴银行和德意志银行在内的多家投行目前均预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点。根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具 （Fed Watch），美联储基金期货交易员预计9月降息的可能性为84%。 在美国总统特朗普"史无前例"地宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，26日亚太交易时段，美元、美债齐跌，避险资产黄金、日元 上涨。 市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到损害。自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美 联储七人理事会成员。 康奈尔大学教授普拉萨德（Eswar Prasad）称："这是一种违反美联储独立性的非同寻常的侵犯行为。特朗普现在已经对美国制度框架宣战， 而该框架支撑着美元在全球金融中的主导地位。" 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称，"根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修 ...

美国总统特朗普再次采取史无前例的行动，因涉嫌抵押贷款违规而解雇了首位担任美联储理事的非裔女 性丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。随后，库克回应称，特朗普无权将她从美联储解雇，她也不会辞职。 IG市场分析师托尼·西卡莫尔（Tony Sycamore） "特朗普在不断向美联储主席鲍威尔施压并导致其上周退让之后，又解除了库克的职务，这重新点燃了 对美联储独立性的质疑，进一步削弱了其保持不受政治影响、独立制定货币政策的能力。" 华侨银行外汇策略师Christopher Wong "这一举动再次显示出市场对美联储独立性的担忧，令美元承压，并对FOMC未来组成产生影响，可能 会出现更多倾向鸽派的成员。这进一步强化了降息预期和美元走软的前景。" "特朗普总统声称'有理由'解雇我，但无任何法律依据，他没有权力这样做。我不会辞职。 我将继续履行自2022年以来一直在做的帮助美国经济的职责。" 如果特朗普最终成功解雇库克，他将再次获得提名美联储理事的机会。市场开始押注库克的继任者将是 鸽派人物，推动进一步降息。以下是华尔街分析师对此事件的看法。 凯投宏观亚太区市场主管托马斯·马修斯（THOMAS MATHEWS） "市场反应相对 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 亚洲早盘，、瑞郎和日元等一些避险资产走强，受对美联储独立性的担忧提振。此前美国总统特朗普表 示，他将把莉莎-库克从美联储理事会中除名。特朗普在Truth Social上发布了一封信，信中宣布立即将 库克免职。StoneX的Matt Simpson称："特朗普刚刚炒掉了他的第一位美联储理事。"这位高级市场分析 师补充说："随着特朗普采取行动削弱美联储的独立性，美元正被抛售。"黄金上涨0.4%，至每盎司3， 379.38美元；美元兑瑞郎下跌0.4%，至0.8030瑞郎；美元兑日元下跌0.5%，至147.07日元。 ...

（原标题：鲍威尔"鸽声"点燃看涨情绪 分析师高喊亚洲股汇双涨在即） Asia Decoded首席经济学家Priyanka Kishore指出："美元走软可能会暂时提振亚洲货币，因为鲍威尔表 示可能会在 9 月降息。但除非美联储承诺开启更大幅度的宽松政策，否则任何涨势都可能只是暂时 的。" Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen称："鲍威尔发出的'愿望转化为现实'的信号将有助于填补亚洲市场稍 有波动的表面之下存在的裂痕。尽管该信号并不能保证其持久性，但这种提振作用在以科技股为主的板 块和市场(比如日本和台湾)中会最为明显，因为在这些地方市场情绪更为脆弱。对于投资者而言，这种 新的乐观情绪很可能会在 9 月 17 日之前一直保持风险偏好高涨的状态。" 智通财经APP获悉，本周，亚洲股市有望迎来强劲开局，亚洲货币也可能因此获得支撑。华尔街分析师 们还指出，亚洲股市与货币有望进一步走强。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话表 明，美联储最快将于 9 月的下一次政策会议上采取降息举措。上周五，美国股市大幅上涨，使得道琼斯 工业平均指数创下今年来的新高。与此同时，新兴市场货币结束了连续六天的跌 ...

与鲍威尔不同，贝森特更像是一位金融赌徒，押注未来，追求刺激。在他看来，等到数据证实经济衰退时，一切都为时已晚。因此，他主张提前行动，通过 引导市场预期来防范风险。两种截然不同的思维方式，在此刻激烈碰撞。 全球金融棋局：衰退阴影下的货币战争 当今世界，一场诡谲的金融大戏正在上演，其幕后逻辑令人不寒而栗。尽管美国财政部的数据显示，仅7月份关税收入便高达近300亿美元，全年预计超过 1500亿美元，这看似经济强劲、政策奏效的铁证，却与资本市场的反应形成了鲜明反差。 美元指数在短短半年内，从109的高位暴跌至98，跌幅近一成，如此急剧的下挫，在过去五十年中实属罕见。资金流向是最诚实的指标，今年上半年流入美 国的资金较去年下半年锐减两成，甚至有两个月出现资金净流出的情况。关税收入的激增与资本外逃、美元疲软并存，这一矛盾现象预示着市场信心的动 摇。历史数据的光鲜已不再重要，取而代之的是对未来的恐慌，而这场恐慌的源头，直指美国财政部长贝森特及其所掀起的舆论风暴。 贝森特频繁公开讲话，试图主导美联储的货币政策方向。他公然要求美联储在9月份的会议上采取"果断行动"，一次性降息50个基点。财政部长直接干预央 行决策，这一举动本身 ...

周五纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.97%，报146.94日元，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后从148.50日元上方瞬间 跳水至147日元下方，本周累计下跌0.17%，整体呈现出M形走势。欧元兑美元涨0.99%、报1.1721，本 周累涨0.15%；英镑兑美元涨0.86%、报1.3527，本周累跌0.19%，几乎完全收复周一至周四持续、平滑 震荡下行所构成的跌幅；美元兑瑞郎跌0.92%、报0.8015，本周累跌0.66%。 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1.0% to $3348.65 per ounce, continuing to rise since 10:00 AM Beijing time [1] - COMEX gold futures also rose by 1.0%, reaching $3392.4 per ounce [1] - Ethereum saw a significant increase from around $4100 to nearly $4230, with an overall daily rise of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin experienced a short-term surge from approximately $112,400, with an overall daily increase, returning above $113,800 [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by about 2.2 basis points, hitting a new low below 4.2830% [1] - The US dollar against the Japanese yen declined nearly 0.5%, reaching a new low below 147 [1]

Group 1 - The total amount of U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, resulting in a debt burden of $107,000 per American, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [1][9] - President Trump is advocating for a significant interest rate cut of 300 basis points to alleviate the debt burden, which he believes could save nearly $1 trillion annually [9][25] - Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated a high likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, contradicting previous Federal Reserve statements [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut should be the market's baseline expectation, rather than the previously anticipated 25 basis points [7] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 93.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 6.7% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September [7] - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve, with some members openly opposing Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates, a rare occurrence in the Fed's history [13][25] Group 3 - The global trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries significantly reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [17] - Japan is preparing to raise interest rates, marking a significant shift in monetary policy that contrasts with the U.S. approach [19] - Market confidence in the dollar is declining, with gold and Bitcoin reaching historical highs, while the dollar index has fallen below 90 [21] Group 4 - Trump's recent nominations for Federal Reserve positions include several loyalists, indicating a push to align the Fed more closely with his administration's monetary policy goals [23] - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a broader struggle between political power and market forces [25] - The acceleration of de-dollarization presents an opportunity for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, although caution is advised regarding potential U.S. attempts to shift economic burdens [27]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 3,000 in initial jobless claims, bringing the total to 224,000, which is in line with levels seen in November 2021 and below the expected 225,000 and previous 226,000 [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.953 million, lower than the expected 1.967 million and previous 1.974 million, indicating persistent challenges for job seekers [1] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed opposition to a significant 50 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, suggesting it could signal unnecessary urgency [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged the Fed not to rush into rate cuts until inflation is fully under control, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts [1] - Daly supports a gradual shift towards a more neutral policy stance over the next year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1]

Core Points - US stock futures fell by approximately 0.1%, while major European indices opened mostly higher [1][11] - The Japanese stock market declined, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 1.4% and the Topix index down by 1.1% [3] - The US Treasury yields mostly decreased, with both 2-year and 10-year yields down by over 1 basis point [4] - The British GDP for Q2 exceeded expectations with a growth of 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts [5] - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude rising over 0.4% to above $62.20 [8][18] - Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant gains, with Bitcoin rising over 2% to above $121,800 and Ethereum rising over 3% to above $47,700 [9][10] Market Reactions - The US dollar index initially fell by nearly 0.2% but later turned to an increase [4][12] - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.7%, marking its largest gain in nearly two weeks [1] - Gold prices remained stable, with spot gold slightly up by over 0.2% [6][15] - Silver prices showed minimal movement, with spot silver remaining flat [7]