潮宏基（002345.SZ）2025 年中报点评 业绩高增，持续破圈 2025 年 08 月 25 日 ➢ 事件：潮宏基发布 2025 年半年报。25H1，实现收入 41.02 亿元，同比 +19.54%，归母净利润为 3.31 亿元，同比+44.34%，扣非归母净利润为 3.30 亿 元，同比+46.14%；25Q2，收入 18.50 亿元，同比+13.13%，归母净利润为 1.42 亿元，同比+44.29%，扣非归母净利润为 1.42 亿元，同比+46.10%。25 年半年 度利润分配方案为：以总股本 8.89 亿股为基数，每 10 股派发现金 1 元（含税）， 共计派发现金股利 8885.13 万元（含税）。 ➢ 珠宝和黄金产品增速亮眼，加盟高增。1）分产品看：25H1，时尚珠宝产品、 传统黄金产品、皮具、品牌授权及加盟服务分别收入为 19.90/18.31/1.23/1.23 亿元，同比+20.33%/+23.95%/-17.43%/-0.45%。2）分渠道看：25H1 公司直 营净关店 37 家，加盟净开店 68 家，自营、加盟代理、批发收入分别为 11.72/22.44/1.01 亿元，同比+4. ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 饰品 非金融|公司点评报告 投资要点： 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；公司经营管理风险；新品投入市场不及预期风险。 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 23 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 | | 日 | | 21 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 15.97 | | | | | | 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | 18.18/4.06 | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 14,189.55 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 13,850.62 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 优于大市 二季度利润增长超 40%，加盟门店持续扩张 营收增长稳健，利润增速超 40%。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 41.02 亿元，同 比+19.54%，归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比+44.34%。单二季度看，营收同比 +13.13%至 18.5 亿元，归母净利润 1.42 亿元，同比+44.29%。整体营收在加 盟开店扩张及公司出货的批发业务增长下表现稳健，利润受益费用进一步优 化、珠宝业务中高毛利率定价产品占比提升而表现更优。总体上，虽短期直 营转加盟导致收入增速与利润增速不相匹配，但更轻的渠道模式将助力公司 未来加速门店规模扩张。 珠宝业务增速超 20%，潮宏基主品牌净开 72 家加盟店。分业务看，珠宝业务 收入增长21.22%至39.73 亿元，其中时尚珠宝产品增长20.33%至19.9 亿元， 传统黄金产品增长 23.95%至 18.31 亿元，受益于非遗工艺金饰品的优异表 现。皮具业务受需求下滑影响而营收同比下滑 17.77%至 1.23 亿元。渠道方 面，整体门店净开 31 家至 1542 家，其中潮宏基主品牌净开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 194 million yuan, a decrease of 41.91% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.252 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.36%, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, up 44.38% year-on-year [2]. - The company has focused on differentiated product categories, including "intangible cultural heritage," "beads," and "popular IP," which have driven growth in its jewelry brand business [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's jewelry brand business revenue grew by 13.34% year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 12.83% [3]. - Traditional gold products saw a revenue increase of 30.21% year-on-year, while fashion jewelry products experienced a slight decline in revenue of 0.63% [3]. - The company reported a gross margin of 22.93% in Q1 2025, reflecting an improvement from the previous quarter [2]. Channel and Market Expansion - The franchise business generated revenue of 3.284 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 32.35%, with a total of 1,272 franchise stores by the end of the year [4]. - The company has expanded its presence in Southeast Asia by opening stores in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.55, 0.64, and 0.76 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 18, 15, and 13 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% [1]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, up 7%, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. - Fashion jewelry product revenue is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold product revenue is projected to be 2.9 billion, an increase of 30% [2]. User Base and Digital Management - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 26.1% in 2025, followed by 25.9% in 2026 and 27.2% in 2027 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [8][21]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% year-on-year [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, a 7% increase, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from fashion jewelry products is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold products are projected to generate 2.9 billion, a 30% increase [2]. - The company has successfully integrated cultural elements with modern fashion in its product offerings, creating a strong market presence with unique designs [4]. User Base and Digital Strategy - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being post-80s, 90s, and 00s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13].