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吉利汽车(00175):系列点评三十二:2025H1业绩表现亮眼,新品周期密集
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-16 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [6] Core Views - Geely Automobile's H1 2025 performance is impressive, with total sales reaching 1.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%. Total revenue amounted to 150.28 billion RMB, up 26.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion RMB, down 13.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The company benefits from a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw sales of 386,000 units in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 119.2% [2] - Geely plans to privatize Zeekr, which will help consolidate resources and improve operational efficiency [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Geely's revenue was 77.79 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was estimated at 110,000 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 17.1%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points was attributed to changes in export structure and product mix [3] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 3.62 billion RMB, with Zeekr reporting a net loss of 580 million RMB [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Geely from 2025 to 2027 are 404.78 billion RMB, 489.69 billion RMB, and 572.83 billion RMB, respectively. Net profit estimates for the same period are 16.21 billion RMB, 22.09 billion RMB, and 25.97 billion RMB [4][5] - The report anticipates an EPS of 1.61 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.58 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 8, and 7 [5] Strategic Initiatives - The proposed privatization of Zeekr aims to enhance Geely's brand and competitiveness in the luxury electric vehicle market, facilitating better integration of assets and resources [4] - The report emphasizes the upward momentum of Geely's new energy brand and accelerating profitability [4]