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固定收益点评:转债评级下调怎么看?
Guohai Securities· 2025-05-18 08:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rating downgrades in the convertible bond market from 2021 - 2024 showed high - frequency, seasonal, and industry - concentrated characteristics. Over 61% of downgrades were in June, with cyclical industries like industrial and materials dominating, and over 80% of downgraded entities being private enterprises in coastal developed areas. High - rating entities had lower downgrade risks [6]. - Rating adjustments drove market differentiation. High - growth sectors such as TMT, electronics, and non - ferrous metals had low downgrade risks, while industries like real estate, steel, and power equipment faced greater downgrade pressure. After a downgrade, convertible bond prices generally showed a "first decline then rise" pattern, and market sentiment was significantly affected by the rating window period [6]. - To deal with credit risks, a triple - strategy approach could be adopted: using equity - biased convertible bonds to hedge risks, seizing repair opportunities of undervalued low - price bonds, and using short - duration high - YTM bonds for defense [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rating Adjustment Review 3.1.1 Historical Rating Adjustments and Market Performance - From 2021 - 2024, there were 193 downgrades in the convertible bond market, accounting for 4.51% of all rating adjustments. Over 61% of them were in June. Industries such as industrial and materials were dominant, private enterprises accounted for over 80%, mainly in coastal areas like Guangdong and Jiangsu. Downgraded entities were generally of weak quality, with issuance ratings concentrated at AA and AA - [6][8][10]. - The broader market index often weakened in May and June. The CSI Convertible Bond Index usually had a phased decline before the release of rating adjustment announcements due to risk pre - screening by institutions, leading to a chain reaction of "forward - priced risk → wider credit spread → market correction" [16]. - After a downgrade, convertible bond prices generally showed a "first decline then rise" pattern. For example, Zhongzhuang Zhuan 2 and Ying 19 Convertible Bond rebounded about 1 month after the downgrade [19]. 3.1.2 Identification of Downgraded Convertible Bonds - Factors leading to rating downgrades included performance losses, weakened solvency, low industry prosperity, equity issues, and liquidity risks. For example, Lingnan Convertible Bond was downgraded multiple times due to a plunge in EBITDA margin to - 119% and a high short - term debt ratio [6][23][24]. 3.1.3 Rating Adjustments Showed Structural Differentiation - High - growth sectors such as TMT, electronics, and non - ferrous metals had strong profitability and low downgrade risks. For example, the computer industry had a 471.86% year - on - year increase in net profit, the electronics industry had a ROE of 6.27% and a 37.24% net profit growth, and the non - ferrous metals industry had a ROE of 11.3% and a 53.23% net profit growth [26]. - Traditional industries such as real estate, steel, and power equipment faced greater downgrade risks. The real estate industry had a 274% drop in net profit, the steel industry had a negative ROE, and the power equipment industry had a low ROE of 3.6% [28]. 3.2 How to Select Bonds Around the Rating Adjustment Window Period 3.2.1 Equity - linked Convertible Bonds Could Hedge Credit Risks - In the face of credit risk shocks, equity - biased convertible bonds showed stronger price resilience. For example, during the "20 Hongda Xingye SCP001" default in 2020, equity - biased convertible bonds rose while others declined [32]. 3.2.2 Low - price Convertible Bonds Presented a Layout Window - During the credit adjustment window period, the low - price index usually showed a "first decline then rise" return characteristic. In 2024, low - price convertible bonds initially underperformed but later achieved the highest cumulative return for the year. Currently, attention could be paid to undervalued but cash - flow - stable bonds [33]. 3.2.3 Layout of Short - duration High - YTM Convertible Bonds - Short - duration high - YTM convertible bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years and positive YTM could be selected. For example, Wanshun Zhuan 2 in 2024 outperformed the market under the protection of the put - back clause [36]. 3.3 Post - market Allocation Suggestions - Focus on three types of opportunities: high - growth equity - biased convertible bonds such as Hao 24 Convertible Bond; low - price bonds with credit mispricing like Jingneng Convertible Bond; and short - duration high - YTM defensive bonds such as Lvyin Convertible Bond [40].
声迅转债被列入信用评级观察名单,今年以来16只转债评级遭下调
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 08:59
Core Viewpoint - Zhongzheng Pengyuan has placed Beijing Sound Communication Electronics Co., Ltd. on a credit rating watch list due to significant losses and declining financial indicators, maintaining its credit rating at A+ [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, Sound Communication reported revenue of 302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%, but incurred a net loss of 51.2 million yuan, a decline of 304.23% compared to the previous year [1] - The company continued to experience losses in Q1 2025, with a net loss of 14.21 million yuan [1] - The decline in gross profit, increased expenses, and poor receivables collection have contributed to the company's financial struggles [1] Group 2: Credit Rating and Market Position - Zhongzheng Pengyuan has maintained the company's credit rating at A+ while placing it on a watch list due to the aforementioned financial issues [1] - Sound Communication has one outstanding bond, the Sound Convertible Bond, with a remaining scale of 279 million yuan and a maturity of 3.63 years [2] - The company, founded in 1994, provides comprehensive security solutions and services across various sectors, including rail transportation and finance [2] Group 3: Industry Context - In 2023, over 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, with 4 bonds placed on a watch list, indicating a trend of increasing credit risk in the market [3] - The primary reasons for rating downgrades include operational losses, liquidity issues, and deteriorating credit conditions [7][9]
普利退: 关于聘请主办券商的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-09 12:39
Core Viewpoint - Hainan Puli Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. announced that its stock and convertible bonds will be delisted, with the delisting period starting on April 28, 2025, and expected to last until May 21, 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Delisting Information - The convertible bonds will enter a delisting adjustment period for fifteen trading days, with the last trading date anticipated to be May 21, 2025 [1] - After the delisting, the company's stock and convertible bonds will be managed by the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) in a delisting board for transfer [3] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has decided to terminate the listing of the company's stock and convertible bonds as of April 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Management and Compliance - The company is required to appoint a securities firm to provide services for the transfer of its stock and convertible bonds in the delisting board [3][4] - The company has signed an agreement with Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. to act as the main underwriter for the transfer of its stock and convertible bonds [4] - The appointed underwriter will handle various administrative tasks, including registration and confirmation of shares and bonds in the delisting board [4][5]
4月30日投资提示:家联转债下修
集思录· 2025-04-29 15:01
家联转债:董事会提议下修 ST天创:5月6日撤销退市风险警示 通裕重工:筹划控制权变更,停牌 文科股份:公司4.34亿元重大诉讼一审胜诉 声讯股份:净利润为负且营业收入低于3亿元,实施退市风险警示,5月6日复牌 对销售收入进行再次分析,基于谨慎性原则,部分收入 2024 年度不予确认,营业收入减少约 3000 万元,扣除后的营业收入不足 3 亿元; 正川转债,鸿路转债:不下修 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 现价 | 强赎价 | 最后交易日 | 最后转股日 | 转股价值 | 剩余规模 | 转债占正股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | (亿元) | 流通市值比 | | 128117 | 道恩转债 | 131.018 | 101.730 | 2025-05-07 | 2025-05-12 | 131.97 | 0.730 | 1.13% | | 123132 | 回盛转债 | 144.150 | 100.640 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-20 | 146.53 | 2.296 | ...
中证转债指数低开0.05%。普利转退大跌33.7%,飞凯转债跌5.9%,华翔转债跌近3%;运机转债涨9.8%,精达转债涨4%,易瑞转债、九洲转2、节能转债、恒锋转债涨1.8%。
news flash· 2025-04-28 01:45
Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index opened lower by 0.05%, indicating a slight decline in the market sentiment towards convertible bonds [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The price of the Puli Convertible Bond dropped significantly by 33.7%, reflecting a major sell-off in this specific bond [1] - The Feikai Convertible Bond fell by 5.9%, contributing to the overall negative trend in the market [1] - The Huaxiang Convertible Bond experienced a decline of nearly 3%, further indicating weakness in the sector [1] Group 2: Positive Performers - The Yunjiji Convertible Bond saw an increase of 9.8%, standing out as a strong performer amidst the overall market decline [1] - The Jingda Convertible Bond rose by 4%, showing resilience in its performance [1] - Other bonds such as Yirui Convertible Bond, Jiuzhou Convertible Bond, Jieneng Convertible Bond, and Hengfeng Convertible Bond all increased by 1.8%, indicating some positive movement in the market [1]