新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）债市周二（11月25日）小幅走弱，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收 益率小幅回升0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼1054亿元，多项扰动已过、资金利率多数回落。 机构认为，年内货币政策缺乏想象空间对债市形成压制，在此前修复行情过后，市场机构普遍做多信心 不足。亦有观点指出，债市情绪依然脆弱，在12月中央经济工作会议之前，债市行情或仍延续震荡。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.33%报115.16，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报108.22，5年期 主力合约持平于105.98，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.422。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行0.85BP报2.1685%，10 年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.45BP报1.878%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.45BP报 1.8175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.22%，报485.08点，成交金额624.32亿元。欧通转债、振华转债、大中转债、 国城转债、利扬转债涨幅居前，分别涨9.35%、8.19%、7.85%、7.79 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | | 涨跌幅% ↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 123241.SZ | 欧通转债 | 592.86 | 15.15 | | 123260.SZ | 卓镁转债 | 173.854 | 10.52 | | 113667.SH | 春23转债 | 180.939 | 7.18 | | 118048.SH | 利扬转债 | 212.401 | 6.10 | | 123203.SZ | 明电转02 | 144.147 | 5.68 | | 113687.SH | 振华转债 | 411.396 | 4.68 | | 123222.SZ | 博俊转债 | 210.835 | 4.58 | | 110096.SH | 豫光转债 | 182.7 | 3.80 | | 代码 | 简称 | 最新 | 涨跌幅% ↑ | | 113695.SH | 华辰转债 | 160.878 | -7.84 | | 113575.SH | 东时转债 | 249.85 | -3.12 | | 123117.SZ | 健帆转债 | 118.552 | -1.66 | | 123234.SZ | 中能 ...

沪指震荡收涨0.18% 银行与石油石化板块领涨；黄金股ETF涨4.79%；工业硅、多晶硅日间盘涨幅居前；中证转债指数收涨0.24%。瑞银财富管理：AI发展 与能源创新密不可分；巴克莱：AI资本支出将推动大宗商品需求超预期。 【市场回顾】 11月19日，A股市场震荡企稳，银行、石油石化等权重板块集体拉升，带动沪指飘红。 11月19日，日韩股市收盘齐跌，日经225指数收跌0.34%，报48537.70点；韩国综合指数跌0.61%，报3929.51点。 11月19日，国债期货各主力合约收跌。截至收盘，30年期国债期货（TL2512）报收116.090元，下跌0.480元，跌幅0.41%；10年期国债期货（T2512）报收 108.425元，下跌0.070元，跌幅0.06%；5年期国债期货（TF2512）报收105.880元，下跌0.030元，跌幅0.03%；2年期国债期货（TS2512）报收102.462元， 下跌0.028元，跌幅0.03%。 11月19日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现，其中工业硅、多晶硅涨幅居前。 11月19日，ETF收盘涨跌不一，黄金股ETF(517520)涨4.79%，黄金股票ETF( ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Goldman Sachs suggests that adjusting investment portfolios according to overall policy trends can yield excess returns [1] - The chief analyst from Shenwan Hongyuan presents a two-phase bullish outlook for A-shares, with the first phase in 2025 focusing on technology and a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market rally in the second half of 2026 [2] - UBS forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors continuing from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate strong demand in the lithium carbonate market, with expectations for increased storage demand impacting consumption structure [2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate reached a ceiling price of 95,200 yuan/ton, driven by supply constraints and low inventory [2] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.06%报116.53，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报108.5，5年期主 力合约涨0.03%报105.92，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.49。 银行间主要利率债表现分化，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.35BP报2.136%，10年期国开 债"25国开15"收益率下行0.2BP报1.866%，5年期国开债"25国开08"收益率上行0.4BP报1.714%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.55%，报488.05点，成交金额682.42亿元。中能转债、立中转债、天赐转债、 国城转债、振华转债跌幅居前，分别跌14.87%、11.04%、10.39%、8.84%、8.37%。东时转债、微导转 债、润达转债、惠城转债、路维转债涨幅居前，分别涨14.69%、6.00%、5.09%、4.77%、4.76%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间11月17日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.63BP报3.608%，3年 期美债收益率涨0.28BP报3.611%，5年期美债收益率持平报3.728%，10年期美债收益率跌0.78BP报 4.1 ...

新华财经北京11月17日电（王菁）债市周一（11月17日）偏强整理，国债期货主力全线收涨，银行间现 券收益率下行0.5-1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放1631亿元，税期扰动之下的资金利率集体回升。 机构认为，近期资金面仍偏宽松，短端利率保持低位，这给债市提供支撑，但情绪不稳，盘面容易跟随 股市波动。机构则表示，在融资需求不足而资产荒延续背景下，债券配置力量或持续有利于利率下行， 关注今年年底到明年年初的配置行情。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.33%报116.45，10年期主力合约涨0.09%报108.485，5年期 主力合约涨0.05%报105.905，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.48。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.85BP报1.8665%，10年期国 债"25附息国债16"收益率下行0.35BP报1.8015%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行1BP报 2.1385%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.20%，报490.74点，成交金额712.23亿元。首华转债、豫光转债、宏发转债、 楚天转债、福立转债跌幅居前，分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index opened lower by 0.07% on November 12, indicating a slight decline in the overall market sentiment for convertible bonds [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dongshi Convertible Bond rose nearly 10%, showing strong investor interest and positive market sentiment [1] - Yonggui Convertible Bond increased by 8.8%, reflecting a favorable performance among certain convertible bonds [1] - Zhenhua Convertible Bond fell by 4.7%, indicating a negative trend for this specific bond [1] - Tianci Convertible Bond decreased by 3.8%, suggesting a decline in investor confidence for this bond [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a sideways trend, with expectations of maintaining this overall oscillation until the end of the year, while fundamental pressures in the fourth quarter may lead to opportunities for gradual duration extension in portfolios [1][7]. Market Performance - On November 11, the majority of government bond futures closed flat, with the 30-year main contract at 116.3, the 10-year contract down 0.01% at 108.475, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts remaining stable [2]. - The interbank yield rates for major bonds remained stable, with slight strength in the short end; the 30-year special government bond yield decreased by 0.05 basis points to 2.146% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2.92 basis points to 3.591% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, while the long end continued to rise, with the 10-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 1.692% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 3.437%, while the German yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.666% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5311%, 1.7181%, and 1.8819% for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.66, 3.22, and 4.68 [4]. Funding Conditions - On November 11, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 4038 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 2.9 basis points to 1.508% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities anticipates a mild expansion in fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy in 2026, with a projected range for the 10-year government bond yield between 1.6% and 1.9% [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that despite seasonal expectations, the fourth quarter may face increased fundamental pressures, leading to limited overall odds in the bond market [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income notes that credit spreads are compressing, with expectations for further declines in the bond market in November and December, while highlighting the need for structural opportunities in credit bonds [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently in a consolidation phase, with long-end varieties remaining weak, and the focus is shifting back to fundamentals and equity market performance, requiring renewed policy easing expectations for further strengthening [1][6]. Market Performance - On November 6, the main contracts for government bond futures mostly closed lower, with the 30-year contract down 0.28% at 116.11, the 10-year contract down 0.09% at 108.535, and the 5-year contract down 0.03% at 105.965 [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds generally rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.2 basis points to 1.866%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.7945% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.78 basis points to 4.159% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also saw an increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 1.68% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year French, German, Italian, and Spanish bond yields all increased, with the French yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 3.455% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds were issued at yields of 1.6605% and 1.8685%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.35 and 5.62 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 928 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down 0.2 basis points to 1.313% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that in a tightening monetary environment, floating-rate bonds may outperform other fixed-income assets, with expectations for further expansion in the floating-rate bond market [7]. - The overall stability of the liability side is expected to limit disturbances in the bond market, with a continued recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter [7]. - The bond market has entered a phase of information vacuum, with risk preferences becoming the main reference for interest rate pricing [7].