1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the basic metals, copper is recommended to be bought on dips due to supply tightness and strategic importance; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand balance; alumina is expected to be strong with a marginal supply contraction; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered on rallies if the large - scale production cut is limited [1]. - For lithium, the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with the support at 100,000 - 120,000 yuan due to strong demand expectations [2]. - For polysilicon, the main contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For tin, it is recommended to buy on dips due to supply tightness and strong demand [2]. - For the black industry, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and the trading strategy is mainly to wait and see [3][4]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal shows an internal - external differentiation, with the US soybean being strong and the domestic market being weak; corn is expected to oscillate; oils and fats are in a critical state with a strategy of reverse spread; cotton is recommended to wait and see; eggs, pork are expected to oscillate weakly [5][6]. - For energy chemicals, LLDPE is recommended to be bought on dips in the short - term and mid - term; PVC is recommended for a positive spread strategy; PX is recommended for mid - term long - allocation, and PTA is recommended to take profits; glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash; PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and mid - term, and short positions can be taken on rallies; MEG is recommended to hold short positions; crude oil is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies; styrene is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and long positions can be taken on dips in the mid - term; soda ash is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices stabilized in a volatile manner on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The US stock market strengthened, the supply of copper ore tightened, and the domestic demand was in the off - season but the market was active in pricing after the price decline. The strategic importance of metals increased [1]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.30% to 23,315 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand balance [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 1.22% to 2,824 yuan/ton on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong with a marginal supply contraction [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,500 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 10,029 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries weakened [1]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered on rallies if the large - scale production cut is limited [1]. Lithium - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 49,285 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 870 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased, and the demand in the downstream materials decreased seasonally. The inventory increased slightly, and the precipitation of funds decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with the support at 100,000 - 120,000 yuan due to strong demand expectations [2]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The price was stable on Friday [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply was stable, and the demand in the battery and component sectors decreased. The total photovoltaic installation in 2025 exceeded expectations, and the export of components was supported [2]. - Trading strategy: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - Market performance: The price rebounded after reaching a low of 340,000 yuan on Friday [2]. - Fundamentals: The US stock market strengthened, the supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was strong. The global inventory decreased significantly [2]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips [2]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 3,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot market trading was sparse, the supply decreased year - on - year, and the demand for building materials was weak. The inventory was high but the marginal change was strong. The steel mills were in losses, and the production increase was limited [3]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of 3050 - 3110 yuan [3]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [3][4]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were neutral. The iron water production increased slightly, and the supply was in line with the seasonal pattern. The inventory days increased, and the structural contradiction persisted. The valuation was neutral [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of 740 - 770 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 1,130.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.5 yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: The iron water production increased, the steel mills were in losses, and the production was expected to be stable or decrease. The first round of price increase was implemented, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The futures valuation was high [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of 1100 - 1150 yuan [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans were strong in the short - term [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America. The demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectation increased [5]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the purchase of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a reverse spread structure [5]. Corn - Market performance: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was mostly stable [5]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress exceeded 60%, and the sales pressure was not large. The sales enthusiasm increased at the end of the year, and the downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The trading was expected to be light before the Spring Festival [5]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian market declined on Friday [5]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia decreased seasonally in January, and the export improved [5]. - Trading strategy: The unilateral market is at a critical point, with a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [5]. Cotton - Market performance: The ICE US cotton futures price declined on Friday, and the international crude oil price rebounded [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The number of unpriced selling orders in the ICE cotton futures decreased, and the Brazilian cotton export decreased. The domestic cotton price entered an adjustment phase, and the spinning mill operating rate decreased [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The futures price was weak, and the spot price declined slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of laying hens decreased, the replenishment was active, and the demand weakened. The egg price is expected to decline seasonally [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Pork - Market performance: The futures and spot prices were weak [6]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased in the short - term but was expected to decline after the minor New Year. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract rebounded slightly. The spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak [7]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure slowed down, and the import was expected to decrease. The downstream demand weakened [7]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips in the short - term and mid - term, and pay attention to geopolitical situations [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v05 contract closed at 4,965 yuan, a decrease of 0.6% [7]. - Fundamentals: The price rebounded due to macro - stimulation. The supply was large, and the demand weakened seasonally. The inventory increased significantly [7]. - Trading strategy: Implement a positive spread strategy of buying 09 and selling 01 contracts [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price was 902 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 5,140 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 62 yuan/ton [7][8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA was at a high level, and the demand in the polyester industry decreased. The inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: The PX valuation is expected to adjust, and long - allocation is recommended in the mid - term. The PTA inventory increases seasonally, and profits can be taken at high processing fees [8]. Glass - Market performance: The fg01 contract closed at 1,058 yuan, a decrease of 1.4% [8]. - Fundamentals: The trading center of glass was stable, and the supply decreased. The inventory was at a high level, and the demand in the downstream was weak. The real estate market was weak [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - Market performance: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 6,580 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the export window opened. The downstream operating rate was stable [8]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and mid - term, and short positions can be taken on rallies [8]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price in East China was 3,675 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the import decreased. The inventory increased, and the demand in the polyester industry decreased [8]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price oscillated this week due to the uncertainty of the Iran geopolitical event [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased in January due to short - term factors. The US - Iran negotiation is the core of trading. The supply pressure is large in the mid - term, and the demand decreased seasonally. The inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [8]. Styrene - Market performance: The main contract declined slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7,720 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [9]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory was at a normal - low level. The demand in the downstream weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and long positions can be taken on dips in the mid - term [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa05 contract closed at 1,172 yuan, a decrease of 1.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price was stalemate at the bottom, the supply increased, and the demand in the downstream was weak. The inventory increased [9]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [9].