Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It affects risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the prices of various assets [2][4]. - The global economic situation is complex, with concerns about inflation, recession, and the impact of central bank policies. The Fed's hawkish stance and high oil prices have led to changes in market expectations and trading strategies [4][38]. - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some are supported by fundamentals, while others are under pressure due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and changes in demand [13][15][33]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's stance on the war, potential impacts of the Iran - US conflict on the global economy, corporate projects, and business suspensions [2]. - **基差年化比率**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis annualized ratios [3]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: The prices of different treasury bond contracts have certain changes. There are also news about power statistics and shipping business resumption. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds [5]. - **策略观点**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets have different trends. There are also relevant policies in Russia and Iran's conditions for ending the war [9]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum. However, in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The copper price rose due to the improvement of market risk sentiment. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while the spot premium in the Guangdong region increased [12]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East is slightly alleviated but may be repeated. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the upward resistance has increased [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The trading volume and inventory of relevant contracts changed. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed [14]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price declined. The inventory and basis of zinc in domestic and international markets have specific data [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [17]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory and basis of lead in domestic and international markets have specific data [18]. - **策略观点**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and the low operating rate of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price. However, the high oil price and the inflow of overseas lead ingots may put pressure on the lead price, and the price volatility is increasing [18]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price declined. The spot price and cost of nickel have specific data [19]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to be weak due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price rose. The production and inventory of tin have specific data [21]. - **策略观点**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. Considering the geopolitical disturbance and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the tin price is expected to be weak [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The price of lithium carbonate increased. The spot and futures prices have specific data [23]. - **策略观点**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The downstream restocking provides support. The supply stability is a concern. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [24]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina price declined. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [25]. - **策略观点**: The bauxite export policy in Guinea may lead to an increase in ore prices. The short - term supply of alumina is tight, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless steel price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [27]. - **策略观点**: The stainless steel price is supported by the increase in raw material costs and policy disturbances. The market supply is still loose, and the demand release is weak. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume, inventory, and price difference have specific data [29]. - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices have specific data [32]. - **策略观点**: The steel market is in a weak balance state. The demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [33]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price declined. The futures price, positions, and spot price have specific data [34]. - **策略观点**: The iron ore price was affected by the negotiation news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [36][37]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about coking coal in the long term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: The prices of glass and soda ash declined. The spot prices, inventory, and positions have specific data [39][41]. - **策略观点**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to be volatile. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range oscillation [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of manganese silicon rose slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [42]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Attention should be paid to the cost and supply - side factors [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon rose. The trading volume, inventory, and spot prices have specific data [47][49]. - **策略观点**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile due to the support of cost and weak demand improvement. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to find the bottom through oscillation [48][50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber have specific data [53][54]. - **策略观点**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. Options can be configured, and hedging positions can be held [56]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products declined [57]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil varieties, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [58]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The methanol price changed. The MTO profit also changed [59]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and do long - short spreads for MTO profits [60]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The urea price changed. The regional spot prices and basis have specific data [61]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to short urea due to the high - level start - up in the first quarter and the limited export quota. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory have specific data [63]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene is neutral to high, and the valuation repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price declined. The cost, production, demand, and inventory have specific data [66]. - **策略观点**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost have specific data [68]. - **策略观点**: The industry is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [70]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and processing fee have specific data [71]. - **策略观点**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and valuation have specific data [73]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [75]. - **策略观点**: The PE valuation has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [78]. - **策略观点**: The cost pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production mismatch [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price declined. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [81]. - **策略观点**: The supply is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was mostly stable. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [83]. - **策略观点**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: There are forecasts for the planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US, export data, and inventory data [85]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation and the relaxation of soybean import inspection standards are negative for the meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [86]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: There are policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia [87][89]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of sugar [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [95]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of cotton [91]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term and positive for the US cotton price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [1] - Soybean Meal: Increase [1] - Oils: Increase [1] - Eggs: Oscillation [1] - Pigs: Oscillation and Weakening [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to enter an oscillatory phase due to increased policy regulation and weakening short - term bullish expectations. The soybean meal market follows changes in import costs. The oils market is affected by the Middle East situation and commodity sentiment. The egg market is expected to remain range - bound, with the lower limit of the oscillation range rising. The pig market is likely to remain weak due to supply pressure [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The main corn contracts 2605 and 2607 increased in positions and prices. The spot market has high inventory costs, and trade - offs between supply and demand lead to an oscillatory market. Policy regulation weakens short - term bullish expectations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated higher, and the market is concerned about the impact of fuel and fertilizer price increases on the area allocation of soybeans and corn. Domestic protein meal oscillated, and the market follows import costs [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed on Monday, and the market is affected by the complex Middle East situation. Domestic oils continued to oscillate, with palm oil rising significantly. The market should continue to monitor the Middle East situation and commodity sentiment [1]. - **Eggs**: The main egg contract 2605 rebounded. The short - term egg price in production areas may be mostly stable with individual increases. The market is expected to oscillate, and the lower limit of the oscillation range has risen [1]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures continued to decline. Due to limited demand and supply pressure, the pig price is likely to remain weak [2]. Market Information - International military actions in the Middle East may last at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East. China's M2 balance increased by 9% year - on - year in February. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen supervision. The inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese ports increased, and the price increase lacks fundamental support. The US issued a license for the purchase of Russian oil. China will release national fertilizer reserves. The price of urea futures has risen by over 20% since the US - Israel attack on Iran. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, while the Kurdish region refuses. A Bahrain aluminum company has started phased production cuts. The methanol inventory in East China ports decreased [2][3][4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided [5][6][7][8][9][11][13][15][17][23] Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and pigs. They have rich experience and many honors [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to fluctuations in prices of various commodities. The market is worried about issues such as rising oil prices, inflation, and potential recession. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these factors [1][2][5][7][8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell by 3.42% to $4491.67 per ounce; the domestic gold market also declined, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9999 gold down 2.55% to 1041.59, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold main contract down 2.22% to 1039.22 yuan per gram. The international silver price dropped 7.12% to $67.596 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to destroy its power plants; Iran considered "temporarily" allowing Japanese ships to pass through. There were rumors that Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries sold gold due to tight funds. There were outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Gold prices may continue to correct in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to consider deploying long positions at an appropriate time. For silver, it is recommended to partially close out short positions [1] 3.2 Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices continued to decline significantly [2] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is that the war has led to rising oil prices, and the probability of interest rate cuts this year has almost disappeared, leading to concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of copper ore has become more tense, and the processing fee has reached - 67 US dollars. The demand side shows a certain pattern, and the domestic copper rod start - up rate has increased significantly, with inventory starting to decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. Attention should be paid to whether Trump takes certain actions and when the two sides start negotiations [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.66% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 24020 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate has increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has brought systematic risks to the aluminum supply chain and supported aluminum prices, but it has also pushed up inflation expectations. In the short term, the macro - level pressure on aluminum prices may be greater than the industrial - level support, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.46% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 3041 yuan per ton [3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The expected supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea in April, the increase in the cost of imported ore and energy shipping, and the reduction of regional available spot due to the maintenance and production reduction of some northern capacities support the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the high domestic inventory and the gradual release of new capacities may limit the upward space [3] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8455 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.05% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of industrial silicon furnaces in operation increased this week, mainly in the southwest region. The demand side shows different trends in different industries, such as the recovery of polysilicon production and the stable output of the organic silicon industry [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the weak overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market, the price of industrial silicon weakened rapidly in the first half of the week. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound pattern between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 143,860 yuan per ton, an increase of 1260 yuan, with a closing price increase of 0.88% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate decreased. The supply increased, and the demand of different materials also increased. The inventory showed a certain pattern of change [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, there are factors of supply - side disturbances and uncertain recovery of power demand. The market is expected to be under pressure, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the consumption of new energy vehicles in March and the demand production schedule in April [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 37765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 785 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 2.04% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side shows a pattern of price decline and production recovery [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon continues to decline, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to focus on the actual procurement situation and transaction order prices of downstream products and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices continued to decline significantly [4] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is similar to that of copper, with concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of tin ore has been relatively relieved, and the demand side has increased replenishment enthusiasm after the price decline [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. If the war does not ease, metals will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities after certain events [4] 3.3 Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3148 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading is gradually recovering, with short - term weak supply and demand. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, while the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is recovering, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the production increase space is limited [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of RB05 being 3120 - 3180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 816.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore has improved marginally. The steel - making iron water output has increased, but the profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase in blast furnace production is limited. There are structural contradictions in the port inventory [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of I05 being 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1263.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel - making iron water output has increased, and there is a game in the coking coal price. The supply port clearance is at a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The futures of the 05 contract are at a premium to the spot [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of JM05 being 1200 - 1289.5 [5] 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6] - **Fundamentals**: The global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and the current supply peak in Brazil and normal growth in Argentina. The demand side shows strong US soybean crushing and seasonal exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter a shock phase, affected by crude oil support and supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the realization of crude oil and US soybean demand, and the domestic market also follows the cost side [6] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, while spot prices fell [6] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress is approaching 80% but is relatively slow. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and the wheat price has weakened. The spot price is expected to be adjusted weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The price in the production area has loosened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6] Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed last Friday [6] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase, and the demand shows a certain increase in exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the driving force of edible oils still follows crude oil, and attention should be paid to crude oil and production in the production area [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated narrowly [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, attention should be paid to the planting report data at the end of the month. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spread between 5 - 9 contracts maintained a narrow - range shock [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the price range reference of 14900 - 15500 yuan per ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, while spot prices were stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has boosted the spot market, but the supply is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to decline, and spot prices also continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in March increased significantly compared with February, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to decline due to strong supply and weak demand [6] 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the LLDPE main contract rose significantly. The low - price spot quotation in North China over the weekend was 8700 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term due to factors such as no new device production in the first half of the year and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work, and it is the peak season for agricultural film demand in March and April [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the medium term, as the situation in the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production in the second half of the year, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6098, up 4% [7] - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices rose due to the increase in international oil prices, and the supply and demand situation showed a pattern of supply reduction and stable demand. The social inventory began to decline [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1076, up 1.6% [7] - **Fundamentals**: Glass was affected by crude oil, and the inventory began to decline. The supply side had significant production reduction, and the downstream demand was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] PP - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the PP main contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9200 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been significantly reduced in the short term due to factors such as reduced new device production and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the long - term, as the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but still have contradictions, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: From March 16th to March 20th, the US - Iran conflict caused the oil price to rise by 80%. The situation has escalated, and the oil price is likely to break through the previous high [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict involves multiple Gulf countries, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a significant reduction in crude oil exports. Although the current production has not been significantly affected, the shipping volume has decreased, and some countries have been forced to reduce production [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The oil price may continue to rise if the Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, but it may reverse if the war situation eases. Attention should be paid to risks [8] Styrene - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the EB main contract rose slightly. The spot market quotation in East China was 10500 yuan per ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [8] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene has decreased slightly. The supply is expected to be tight in the short term due to the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side shows an improvement in the start - up rate [8] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend. In the long - term, as the geopolitical conflict eases, the supply - demand situation will weaken [8] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1233, up 2% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. The downstream demand shows different trends in different industries [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation trends, and Fed's monetary policy stance. Different commodity markets show diverse performance and trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market Performance: International gold prices denominated in London Gold fell 3.86% to $4,813.533 per ounce. Domestic gold also declined, with the 9999 gold on the Gold Exchange down 2.64% to 1,111.89 and the Shanghai Gold main contract on the SHFE down 2.21% to 1,113.52 yuan per gram. International silver prices dropped 5.04% to $75.305 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Powell's statements were in line with market expectations. Tensions in the Middle East escalated due to Iran's missile attacks. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 0.3 tons, while some gold and silver inventories increased or decreased [1]. - Trading Strategy: With escalating Middle - East tensions and potential inflation, and a dovish stance from Powell, it is recommended to reduce long positions in gold. A bearish view is maintained on silver [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The main electrolytic aluminum contract fell 0.76% to 24,800 yuan per ton. The LME price was $3,345 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate rose slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Tight overseas supply expectations support the price, but domestic inventory accumulation and a strong dollar suppress it. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The main alumina contract fell 0.81% to 3,048 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina operating capacity increased steadily, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Policy restrictions on bauxite exports and stronger cost support may drive the price up. The short - term price may be volatile and bullish, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mining policies [2]. - **Zinc and Lead** - Market Performance: On March 18, the main zinc and lead contracts closed at 23,325 yuan per ton and 16,645 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 375 yuan and + 45 yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The lead market has a mixed fundamental situation. The zinc market has high supply but slow consumption recovery, showing a weak domestic and strong overseas pattern [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see for zinc and lead, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for zinc [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,375 yuan per ton, down 185 yuan or 2.16%. The trading volume and open interest increased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory shows a slight decline. Demand in related industries is improving [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,100 and 8,900 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 150,120 yuan per ton, down 3.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand in related industries is also rising. Inventory is expected to decline in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to maintain a tight balance in April. The price is supported at the 150,000 - yuan level, and the market is waiting for a rebound [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 40,105 yuan per ton, down 3.76%. Trading volume and open interest increased slightly [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and inventory rose. Downstream product prices declined slowly, and production schedules in related industries improved [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to downstream procurement and order price changes, and the price is expected to test the 40,000 - yuan resistance level [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 3,137 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Building material inventory increased, and the market's supply - demand situation is short - term weak. Steel mill profits are poor, and production growth is limited [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and hold short positions with caution. The reference range is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 805 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply from Australia and Brazil increased, and iron - making production decreased. The market is in a slightly weak supply - demand situation, and there are some structural contradictions [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and the reference range is 790 - 820 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 1,175 yuan per ton, down 10.5 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Iron - making production decreased, and there is a game over coke price cuts. Supply at ports is high, and overall inventory is neutral. Futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and consider closing short positions. The reference range is 1,150 - 1,210 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [5]. - Fundamentals: There is a global supply surplus expectation, and Brazil's harvest is over half. US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are seasonal. The overall global supply - demand is expected to be loose [5]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term driver of US soybeans lies in crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil and US soybean demand fulfillment. The domestic market follows the US market, and the basis is strong [5]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress is over 70%, but the progress is slow. Port and downstream inventories are low, and the spot price in the production area is weakening [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the loosening of the production area price [6]. - **Edible Oils** - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase, and exports from Malaysia from March 1 - 15 increased by 43% [6]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term driver of edible oils follows crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil and production in the production areas [6]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,398 yuan per ton, up 0.39% [6]. - Fundamentals: High international oil prices may lead to a reduction in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the market is affected by macro - funds and policies [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures closed flat overnight, and international crude oil prices rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Attention is paid to the climate change in US cotton production areas. Domestic cotton imports decreased in February. The domestic - international cotton price gap is narrowing [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and the reference price range is 15,100 - 15,600 yuan per ton [6]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Rainy weather affects egg storage, and the market sentiment is cautious. Supply is sufficient, and it is a seasonal off - peak demand period [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Hogs** - Market Performance: Hog futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices fell slightly [6][7]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume in March increased, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak due to the supply - strong and demand - weak situation and high futures premium [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in North China was 8,150 yuan per ton, and the basis was weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to decrease due to the planned reduction of production in some domestic plants and reduced imports. Demand is improving as the downstream resumes work, and it is the peak season for agricultural film demand in March and April [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the medium term, as the situation eases and new plants are put into operation, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: V05 closed at 5,735, down 1.3% [8]. - Fundamentals: The price rose due to rising oil prices and reduced production of the ethylene method. The ethylene - method operating rate is decreasing, and social inventory is at a new high [8]. - Trading Strategy: With supply reduction and weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Glass** - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1,066, down 2.7% [8]. - Fundamentals: The sentiment improved due to crude oil, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Supply is decreasing, and downstream demand recovery is slow [8]. - Trading Strategy: With supply reduction and weak demand, and low valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **PP** - Market Performance: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 8,550 yuan per ton, and the basis strengthened. The import window is closed, and the export is increasing [8][9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is reduced due to less new plant investment and potential production reduction in some plants. Demand is improving as the downstream resumes work [8][9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil. In the long term, the supply - demand situation will improve slightly but still has contradictions, and it is advisable to short at high prices [8][9]. - **Crude Oil** - Market Performance: Oil prices rose sharply, with Brent reaching $108 per barrel. The situation in the Middle East escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz is almost closed [9]. - Fundamentals: Iran's oil production and export are affected. The daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely low, and Gulf countries have cut production [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to use options to participate in trading to control risks. Enterprises can buy out - of - the - money call or put options according to their expectations [9]. - **Styrene** - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 10,100 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are in a normal or improving situation. Supply may be tight in the short term due to potential production reduction in some plants. Downstream demand is recovering [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil. In the long term, the supply - demand situation will weaken as the geopolitical situation eases [9]. - **Soda Ash** - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1,211, down 2.5% [9][10]. - Fundamentals: After continuous price increases, the sentiment weakened, and the price corrected. Supply is recovering, and inventory is stable. Downstream demand has mixed trends [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increase and weak demand, and neutral valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The conflicts in the Middle East, such as the Iran - Israel and US - Iran conflicts, have a significant impact on the commodity futures market. Different commodities show various market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to factors like geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell by 1.18% to $5018.098 per ounce. The domestic gold market also declined, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9999 gold down 1.34% and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold main contract down 1.32%. The international silver price dropped 3.86% to $80.548 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14th - 17th in Paris. The risk of the Iran - conflict escalation has increased, and crude oil prices have risen. China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, with M2 growing 9% year - on - year. The US 1 - month core PCE price increased 3.1% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter was revised down to 0.7%. The domestic gold ETF had a small inflow of 1.1 tons, and the inventories of gold and silver in different markets had various changes [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the tense Middle East situation and potential inflation, but weak performance of precious metals in the short - term due to liquidity, it is recommended to reduce long positions in gold. For silver, it is suggested to short - sell in the short - term as it follows gold's fluctuations, with a significant decline in domestic spot premiums and an increase in overseas arrivals [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The intensification of the US - Iran conflict on Friday increased concerns about stagflation, weakening risk appetite. The copper concentrate processing fee dropped to negative $60, while the sulfuric acid price rose. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded, and the London structure remained in contango. Global visible inventories were at a high level, and the refined - scrap price difference was around 500 yuan [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see until the macro - outlook becomes clear [2][4]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 1.11% to 24,960 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 220 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3484 per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous Middle East conflict has increased the expectation of tightened overseas aluminum supply, and the low - level decline of LME aluminum inventories supports the aluminum price. However, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure and the strong US dollar suppress the price. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 3.18% to 2956 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 245 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina increased steadily, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The news of Guinea's potential restriction on bauxite exports, along with rising freight, imported bauxite, and caustic soda prices, strengthened the cost support for alumina. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the industry's over - supply pattern limit the upside space. It is necessary to focus on Guinea's mining policy [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8675 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 1 in Sichuan this week, and the electricity price decreased year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. Social inventories decreased slightly. The monthly production of polysilicon is expected to approach 90,000 tons after resuming work in March, the output of the silicone industry is stable, and the aluminum alloy price is rising, with the industry operating rate reaching 58.8% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: This week, the market was affected by macro - events, with the trading logic focused on rising energy costs. There is pressure at the 8900 level due to hedging by leading enterprises. Next week, the market will be mainly driven by macro - sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 8900 [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 152,080 yuan/ton, down 4900 yuan or 3.12% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $15 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1000 yuan/ton. The weekly production increased by 836 tons, and the estimated production in March is 106,390 tons, up 8.7% from January. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in March increased compared to January. The inventory is expected to decrease in Q1, with a total inventory of 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low - level inventory in the off - season supports the price to oscillate around 150,000 yuan. It is expected that the inventory reduction in March will narrow. The power consumption in the first week of March has recovered, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal consumption [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan or 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased, and the open interest increased slightly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly polysilicon production increased slightly, and the industry inventory increased by 3.5%. The warehouse receipts accumulated slightly. The prices of downstream products decreased slightly, and the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March increased compared to the previous month but was still weak year - on - year. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand rhythm as the export tax - refund rush period is ending [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly this week, and the contract open interest continued to shrink. It is necessary to closely monitor the downstream actual procurement and order price changes, and the price is expected to oscillate between 40,000 - 45,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated weakly [3][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Similar to copper, the intensification of the US - Iran conflict increased concerns about stagflation, weakening risk appetite. The copper concentrate processing fee dropped to negative $60, while the sulfuric acid price rose. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded, and the London structure remained in contango. Global visible inventories were at a high level, and the refined - scrap price difference was around 500 yuan [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see until the macro - outlook becomes clear [3][4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading continued to recover, with short - term weak supply and demand. The building material demand expectation was weak, but the supply decreased significantly year - on - year, with limited contradictions. The plate demand was recovering, with high direct and indirect exports, and the inventory level was high, with a slightly higher inventory accumulation rate than the same period in previous years. The steel mill profit was poor, and the production increase space was limited. The futures valuation remained stable, with a high futures discount for rebar and a slight premium or flat price for hot - rolled coil futures [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 798 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore supply and demand were moderately weak. The steel - linked iron water production decreased by 64,000 tons month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there was a game about whether to continue cutting. The steel mill profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope was limited. The supply followed the seasonal pattern. The furnace - material steel mill inventory was slightly high, and the inventory days were above the historical average. Although the port inventory increased by about 20 million tons year - on - year to 170 million tons, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory at ports was low, with certain structural contradictions. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but was significantly lower year - on - year, with a high valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 770 - 810 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1176.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel - linked iron water production decreased by 64,000 tons month - on - month to 2.212 million tons, down 94,000 tons year - on - year. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there was a game about whether to continue cutting. The steel mill profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope might be gentle. The port customs clearance was at a high level, and the inventories at different links were differentiated, with high inventories at ports and mines and low inventories at other links, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The 05 contract futures had a premium over the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a high futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1210 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of large global supply, and more than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, driven by macro - crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short - term, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases [6][7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell slightly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 70%, with little sales pressure and weak sales willingness, but the progress is slow. The port and downstream inventories are at a low level, and the bargaining power is weak. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area, where the price is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat auction at the minimum purchase price next week and the changes in weather and purchase - sales rhythm [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the price in the producing area weakens and the downstream replenishes inventory, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is expected to enter the seasonal production - increasing period. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the Malaysian exports from March 1st - 10th increased by 38% month - on - month, with both supply and demand increasing in the stage [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, fats and oils follow crude oil and are strong, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. It is necessary to pay attention to the later crude oil and production in the producing area [7]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar 05 contract closed at 14.41 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.27%. Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5437 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 26 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax is 610 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, due to the soaring international crude oil price, the ethanol price increased, and the market is worried that the upcoming new - season Brazilian sugarcane may be used for ethanol production, with a significant expected decrease in the sugar - making ratio. In addition, India's production increase is less than expected, and the international sugar price has returned above 14 cents per pound. In China, the estimated sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season has been continuously raised to 7.2 - 7.3 million tons. The monthly production in February is expected to reach the highest level in recent years, and Guangxi has entered the inventory - accumulating stage. However, recently, macro - funds have allocated long positions in white sugar. Affected by the oil price and policy support, Zhengzhou sugar is difficult to fall in the short - term, and the rebound height depends on the cooling of the Middle East situation, the oil price trend, and the sugar - alcohol ratio in the new - season Brazilian sugarcane [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices stopped falling and rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil futures prices oscillated strongly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the latest US cotton export sales data increased compared to the previous week, and the CFTC fund's net long - position ratio in cotton increased month - on - month. In January, Pakistan imported 82,000 tons of cotton, a 23.2% increase month - on - month and a 42.6% decrease year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated strongly. The basis between futures and spot increased compared to the previous week, and the inter - month spread of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The inventory of downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth decreased month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a price range of 15,300 - 15,800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices fell, while spot prices rose over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the demand has recovered, the market sales have accelerated, and the inventory has decreased. However, the breeding side has a weak willingness to cull, and the number of laying hens in production is at a high level. The overall supply is sufficient, and it is the off - season for demand. Egg prices are expected to be at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the demand recovers, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In March, the slaughter volume of the breeding side increased significantly compared to February, the slaughter weight is at a high level in recent years, and the slaughter progress is slow. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with strong supply and weak demand. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: With strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly on Friday. The low - price spot in North China was 8150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan lower than the spot, with weak basis and general market trading [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there are no new installations in the first half of the year, and some existing installations plan to reduce production or stop due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict, resulting in a significant decrease in domestic supply. The import window has been closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease due to the US - Iran geopolitical conflict. In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation expectations, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. Different commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities [1][2][4] - Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US, Iran, and related parties, have a significant impact on the prices of energy - related commodities and also influence the market sentiment of other commodities [1][2][8] Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Market Performance: Overnight, precious metals weakened across the board. International gold prices denominated in London gold fell 1.88% to $5078 per ounce, domestic gold exchange 9999 fell - 0.35% to 1146.45, and SHFE gold main contract fell - 0.34% to 1148.1 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell 2.29% to $85.74 per ounce [1] - Fundamentals: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners; the new leader of Iran stated non - abandonment of revenge and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices dampened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 0.9 tons, and there were changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold due to continuous geopolitical tensions and the unchanged logic of central bank purchases and de - dollarization. For silver, short - term exit and wait - and - see are recommended due to a decline in domestic spot premiums and increased overseas arrivals [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [1] - Fundamentals: The conflict between Iran and the US - Israel intensified, increasing concerns about a long - term war. The supply of copper ore remained tight, with a low scrap - refined copper price difference [1] - Trading Strategy: Wait patiently for low - price buying points [1] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased 0.10% to 25240 yuan per ton, with a 0 - 3 month spread of - 190 yuan/ton in the domestic market, and the LME price was $3536 per ton [1] - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1] - Trading Strategy: Due to the repeated Middle East conflicts, the risk of a decline in overseas aluminum supply increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased 0.14% to 2865 yuan per ton, with a 0 - 3 month spread of - 204 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1] - Trading Strategy: With the repeated Middle East conflicts, the market is mixed with overseas alumina price cuts and rising freight costs, and the price is expected to remain volatile [1] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.29% compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest and an increase in trading volume [2] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased this week, and the operating rate was 25.13%. Social inventory decreased slightly. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase after March, and the prices of silicone and aluminum alloy increased [2] - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000. Consider short - selling on rallies if large factories still have复产 plans [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 156,980 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [2] - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the price of lithium carbonate decreased. Production increased, and demand for related materials also increased. Inventory decreased in Q1, and the number of inventory days decreased. The funds in the market increased [2] - Trading Strategy: Low inventory supports the price to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan. The decline in inventory in March is expected to narrow, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal market [2] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42760 yuan/ton, up 0.40% compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest and a slight decrease in trading volume [2] - Fundamentals: Weekly production remained flat, and industry inventory increased by 4.2%. The prices of downstream products declined slightly, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March improved but were still relatively weak year - on - year [2] - Trading Strategy: Due to position limits, the liquidity of polysilicon futures contracts is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate between 40000 - 44000, and attention should be paid to the actual purchase order prices of downstream products [2] Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly [2] - Fundamentals: The conflict between the US and Iran intensified, increasing oil prices and reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore remained tight [2] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [2] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3138 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 790,000 tons to 1.77 million tons, and production increased by 220,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The spot market trading gradually recovered, and the short - term supply and demand were weak [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 3100 - 3160 for RB05 [4] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons, and port inventory increased by 7 million tons to 119 million tons. Coke prices were cut, and steel mill profits were poor [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 780 - 820 for I05 [4] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1177.5 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased, coke prices were cut, and steel mill profits were poor. Supply at ports was high, and inventory was differentiated [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 1140 - 1210 for JM05 [4] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term [5] - Fundamentals: There was an expected high yield in South America, and Brazil's harvest was over half. US soybean crushing was strong, and exports met expectations. The global supply - demand was expected to be loose [5] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short term, but unilateral trading is more difficult [5] Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [5] - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was close to 70%, with low pressure and weak willingness. Port and downstream inventories were low, and downstream industries were in losses [5] - Trading Strategy: With little remaining grain and downstream restocking, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5] Fats and Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil was strong in the short term [6] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to enter the seasonal increase period, and exports from Malaysia from March 1 - 10 increased by 38% [6] - Trading Strategy: Fats and oils follow crude oil to be strong in the short term, but unilateral trading is difficult. Pay attention to later crude oil and production in the producing areas [6] White Sugar - Market Performance: The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5443 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [6] - Fundamentals: Rising oil prices may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and India's production increase was less than expected. Domestic production in Guangxi increased, and the market was affected by macro - funds, oil prices, and policies [6] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Cotton - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures prices rose and then fell overnight, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated strongly [6] - Fundamentals: US cotton export sales increased, and Australian cotton exports decreased in January. The domestic cotton textile PMI decreased in February [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a reference price range of 15300 - 15800 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices were stable [6] - Fundamentals: Demand recovered, inventory decreased, but the supply was sufficient due to weak culling willingness in the breeding end [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the recovery of demand [6] Hogs - Market Performance: Hog futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume in March increased significantly, the slaughter weight was high, and demand was in the seasonal off - season [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly. The spot price in North China was 8050 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak [7] - Fundamentals: There were no new device put - ins in the first half of the year. Due to the US - Iran conflict, domestic production was expected to decrease, and imports were also expected to decline. Downstream demand improved [7] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to geopolitical conflicts. In the medium term, short on rallies as the supply - demand pressure increases [7] PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 5790, up 2% [8] - Fundamentals: PVC prices were boosted by oil prices, and the supply was stable. Downstream factories were resuming work, and social inventory was at a new high [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to balanced supply and demand and high valuation [8] Glass - Market Performance: Fg05 closed at 1136, up 2% [8] - Fundamentals: Glass prices were driven by the commodity market atmosphere. Supply decreased, inventory increased, and downstream processing enterprises resumed work late. The real estate market was weak [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to do a long - short spread trade due to reduced supply and balanced demand, with medium valuation [8] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 8230 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The export window was open [8] - Fundamentals: In the short term, new device put - ins decreased, and some devices may reduce production due to the US - Iran conflict. Downstream demand improved [8] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations. In the long - term, the market will be in a range - bound state with a short - on - rallies strategy [8] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose again due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf [8] - Fundamentals: Iran's oil production was 3.3 million barrels per day, and exports were 1.8 million barrels per day. Most of its production and exports were concentrated in specific areas and passed through the Strait of Hormuz [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to participate in the market through options to control risks, such as buying out - of - the - money call options for those worried about rising oil prices and buying out - of - the - money put options for those worried about falling oil prices [8] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [9] - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene was at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene improved in the short term due to the US - Iran conflict. Downstream enterprises' inventory was high, and the operating rate was improving [9] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations and pay attention to geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, the supply - demand will weaken as the conflict eases [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: Sa05 closed at 1280, up 2% [9] - Fundamentals: Soda ash prices were driven by rising overseas natural gas prices. Supply recovered, inventory was relatively stable, and downstream demand was mixed [9] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand, with medium valuation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disrupted, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue with moderately loose monetary and more proactive fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs further observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the Middle - East conflict, but the current rise in energy prices may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term [10]. - The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, while aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. Zinc prices may break downward, and lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and alumina prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [13][15][17][18][20][22][23][26][27][29]. - The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term. Glass prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [32][34][38][39][42][43][46][49][51]. - For the energy - chemical sector, rubber trading should be flexible. Crude oil recommends a short - term bearish strategic allocation. Methanol suggests taking profits at high prices. Urea suggests short - selling at high prices. Pure benzene and styrene suggest empty - position waiting. PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks. PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene prices have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [56][58][60][62][64][66][68][70][72][74][76]. - For the agricultural products sector, pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term, egg prices may have a short - term rebound and then be sold short, bean - and - rapeseed meal prices suggest short - term waiting and seeing, oil prices are bullish in the medium term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [79][81][83][85][89][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market News**: The IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Trump said the military action against Iran was "almost over". The National Supercomputing Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens to each OpenClaw user for free for 2 weeks. The US February unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On March 11, the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - issue treasury bonds were higher than the ChinaBond valuations. The IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices all declined. The US February CPI and core CPI were stable for two consecutive months. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA will release 400 million barrels of oil reserves. The Trump administration will launch trade investigations [8][9]. - **Strategy View**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the conflict, but the current energy price rise may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. Be cautiously bearish on precious metals [10]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to copper price fluctuations. LME and domestic warehouse inventories changed, and the spot premium changed [12]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to concerns about aluminum supply, and aluminum prices were strong. Warehouse inventories and futures positions changed [14]. - **Strategy View**: The supply risk in the Middle - East remains, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the inventory accumulation pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices declined. Warehouse inventories, basis, and import and export data are provided [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply. Zinc prices may break downward and are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: The lead industry has problems such as high inventory and low downstream start - up. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [18]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot prices and cost data are provided [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined slightly. Supply is tight, and demand has not fully recovered [21]. - **Strategy View**: The market is bullish on tin prices, but attention should be paid to the current situation of loose supply and demand and rising inventory. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: Lithium carbonate prices declined. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial driving force is limited, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [24]. - **Strategy View**: Maintenance increases and production delays reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to potential driving factors [25][26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices declined slightly. Spot prices, warehouse inventories, and other data are provided [27]. - **Strategy View**: The market procurement atmosphere has improved, and stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is strong, and demand is expected to improve. Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [33]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore supply fluctuates at a high level, and high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: Coking coal and coke prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [36]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: Glass demand has improved slightly, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector [42][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities [46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices declined slightly, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to increase in March, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply and demand are expected to increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Tire enterprise start - up rates, inventory, and spot prices are provided [53][54][55]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding a long - NR and short - RU2609 position [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices declined [57]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil, and have corresponding trading strategies for spreads [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol spot and futures prices changed [59]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices [60]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market News**: Urea spot and futures prices changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell at high prices [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [63]. - **Strategy View**: Empty - position waiting [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy View**: PVC prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: PTA prices may have a short - term correction, and PXN may rise in the future, but pay attention to risks [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene prices are expected to decline in March, and may enter a de - stocking cycle. Pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [74]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term production - matching issues [76]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. Supply and demand data are provided [78]. - **Strategy View**: Pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and wait and see for the far - end contracts [79]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were mostly stable with some narrow fluctuations. Supply and demand data are provided [80]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - end contracts [81]. 3.5.3 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean import, production, and export data are provided [82]. - **Strategy View**: Wait and see in the short term [83]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market News**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data from Indonesia and Malaysia are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: Bullish on oils in the medium term [85]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar production, export, and inventory data from India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided [86][88]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions at low prices [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data are provided [90]. - **Strategy View**: Buy at low prices if downstream starts up well [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals and trading strategies of various commodities including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products and energy chemicals - Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on commodity prices and market trends - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to specific market conditions 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices rose 0.98% to $5190.097 per ounce, domestic gold also increased; silver prices followed gold's fluctuations [1] - **Fundamentals**: Tension in the Middle East, significant inflow of domestic gold ETFs, changes in various gold and silver inventories, and good silver demand in India [1] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions in gold; go long on silver in the short - term [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices stabilized in a volatile manner [2] - **Fundamentals**: Uncertain Middle East situation may put pressure on metals if oil prices rise; tight copper ore supply; specific price differences in the market [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.28% [2] - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants; slightly increased weekly aluminum product operating rate [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate widely [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased by 2.27% [2] - **Fundamentals**: Stable production capacity of alumina plants; high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate [2] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc main contract rose by 160 yuan/ton, lead main contract fell by 35 yuan/ton, and there were changes in inventory [3] - **Fundamentals**: In March, domestic lead supply and demand both increased, slow de - stocking, and zinc was affected by multiple factors such as macro - hedging and inventory [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Short sell lead at high prices; wait and see or conduct short - term operations in the zinc market [3] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price decreased by 0.52%, and there were changes in trading volume and other indicators [3] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in the number of open furnaces; slight de - stocking of social inventory; changes in production and demand in related industries [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000; consider shorting if large - scale production resumes [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract price increased by 1.2% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate prices; increase in production and demand in March; de - stocking in Q1 [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan; observe the consumption situation of new energy vehicles [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price decreased by 0.59%, and there were changes in trading volume and other indicators [3] - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production; increase in inventory; slight decline in downstream prices; improvement in production schedules [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate between 40,000 - 44,000; pay attention to downstream purchase prices [3][4] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices stabilized and fluctuated [4] - **Fundamentals**: Tension between the US and Iran; tight tin ore supply; decrease in warehouse receipts [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in inventory; weak short - term supply and demand; low production increase potential [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions; expect prices to fluctuate between 3060 - 3120 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in shipping volume; neutral supply and demand; high inventory in some parts; structural contradictions [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect prices to fluctuate between 760 - 790 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased by 41.5 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in iron - making water production; potential price reduction in coke; high port and pithead inventory [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions; expect prices to fluctuate between 1080 - 1140 [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: High - yield expectation in South America; strong US soybean crushing and expected exports [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Pay attention to macro - oil prices and South American production realization [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices slightly declined, while spot prices continued to rise [7] - **Fundamentals**: Slow grain - selling progress; low downstream inventory; losses in downstream industries [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate upward [7] Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell [7] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in Malaysian production and exports in February; decrease in inventory [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Pay attention to oil prices and production in producing areas [7] Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rose by 0.13% [7] - **Fundamentals**: Expectation of reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil; increase in Guangxi sugar production; capital inflow [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton prices rose, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also increased [7] - **Fundamentals**: Adjustments in global and domestic cotton supply, demand and inventory [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Buy at low prices; expect prices to fluctuate between 15300 - 15900 [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices fluctuated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7][8] - **Fundamentals**: Traditional off - season demand; limited price increase [7][8] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate downward [8] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, while spot prices continued to decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: High post - holiday supply; seasonal off - season demand [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to fluctuate downward [8] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract price dropped significantly; basis strengthened [9] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in domestic supply; improvement in demand; approaching peak demand season [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Follow oil price fluctuations in the short - term; short - sell at high prices in the medium - term [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: Specific prices and basis are provided [9] - **Fundamentals**: Maintenance of some PX and PTA plants; impact of the Middle East situation on supply; inventory changes [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions in PX; wait and see for PTA [9] PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract price dropped significantly; basis was strong [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply; improvement in demand; open export window [10] - **Trading Strategies**: Follow oil price fluctuations in the short - term; short - sell at high prices in the long - term [10] MEG - **Market Performance**: Specific prices and basis are provided [10] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in domestic and overseas supply; increase in inventory in some ports; improvement in demand [10] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions; beware of price corrections [10] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices dropped significantly on Monday [10] - **Fundamentals**: Impact of the Middle East situation on Iranian oil production and export; importance of the Strait of Hormuz [10] - **Trading Strategies**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract price dropped significantly; market trading was active [11] - **Fundamentals**: Improvement in pure benzene supply - demand; short - term tight supply of styrene; improvement in downstream demand [11] - **Trading Strategies**: Follow oil price fluctuations in the short - term; expect supply - demand to weaken in the long - term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which impacts various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. Different commodities show different trends and trading strategies due to factors like supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost fluctuations. [1][2][5][8] - Inflation may rise due to the tense Middle - East situation, but the logic of central banks' gold - buying and de - dollarization remains unchanged. [1] - The prices of many commodities are in a state of wide - range fluctuations, and trading strategies vary according to different market conditions, including holding long positions, short - term trading, and waiting and seeing. [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, international gold prices denominated in London gold fell by 0.55% to $5139.57 per ounce. In China, the gold of 9999 in the Gold Exchange rose 0.09% to 1140.38, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.07% to 1140 yuan per gram. [1] - Fundamental Factors: Trump said the US military action against Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and some sanctions would be lifted to stabilize oil prices. The G7 considered releasing 3 - 4 billion barrels of oil reserves. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in 0.7 tons, while COMEX and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventories decreased. [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold; short - term long positions in silver are recommended. [1] Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly. [2] - Fundamental Factors: Trump said the Iran war was basically over, and metals turned up after the oil price dropped. The supply of copper ore was increasingly tight, and there were discounts in the spot market. [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the possible recurrence of the Middle - East situation. [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.95% to 24950 yuan per ton. [2] - Fundamental Factors: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly. [2] - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the dual - impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 2.58% to 2905 yuan per ton. [2] - Fundamental Factors: The operating capacity of alumina plants was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. [2] - Trading Strategy: The alumina price is expected to oscillate due to the dual - impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. [3] Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On March 9, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24260 yuan/ton and 16775 yuan/ton respectively. Zinc inventories increased by 0.59 million tons, and lead inventories increased by 0.65 million tons. [3] - Fundamental Factors: In March, the supply and demand of lead ingots in China both increased, and the zinc market was under pressure from macro - risk aversion and high domestic inventories. [3] - Trading Strategy: Short - sell lead at high prices, and wait and see or short - term trade in the zinc market. [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8670 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The number of open furnaces increased, social inventories decreased slightly, and the production of related industries increased. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling if large factories plan to resume production. [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14%. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The supply increased, the demand of related materials increased, and the inventory decreased. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate around 150,000 yuan. The subsequent upward drive depends on the prosperity of the new - energy vehicle terminal consumption. [3] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.86%. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The weekly output was flat, the industry inventory increased, and the downstream prices declined slightly. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 40000 - 44000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual purchase order prices of downstream. [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly. [4] - Fundamental Factors: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the warehouse receipts decreased. [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the possible recurrence of the Middle - East situation. [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3118 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: Steel inventories increased, the spot market trading gradually recovered, and the supply - demand was short - term weak. [5] - Trading Strategy: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can try short - term short - selling. The reference range for RB05 is 3070 - 3130 yuan/ton. [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 786 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: The shipments of Australia and Brazil decreased, the iron ore supply - demand was neutral, and there was a structural contradiction. [5] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 760 - 790 yuan/ton. [5] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1160 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: The iron - making output decreased, the coke price was expected to be lowered, and the overall inventory was low. [5] - Trading Strategy: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can try short - term short - selling. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton. [5] Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose and then fell. [6] - Fundamental Factors: South America had a good harvest expectation, and the US soybean demand was strong. [6] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the macro - oil price and the realization of South American production. [6] Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price in the Northeast continued to rise. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The grain - selling progress was slow, the downstream inventory was low, and the price was dominated by the producing area. [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. [6] Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The production in February decreased, and the export decreased. The inventory at the end of February was expected to decline. [6] - Trading Strategy: The short - term oils and fats are strong, but the single - side trading is difficult. Pay attention to the oil price and production. [6] White Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The international sugar price rose due to the expected decrease in the sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar production increased. [6] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. [6] Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated strongly, and the international crude oil price continued to rise. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The Brazilian cotton export increased, and the domestic textile enterprise inventory decreased. [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15100 - 15700 yuan/ton. [6] Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price rose. [7] - Fundamental Factors: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and the supply is sufficient. [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] Pigs - Market Performance: The pig futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price continued to decline. [7] - Fundamental Factors: The supply pressure is large after the Spring Festival, and the demand is in the off - season. [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The spot price in North China was 8800 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed. [8] - Fundamental Factors: The domestic supply decreased, and the demand improved. [8] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - term short - sell at high prices. [8] PTA - Market Performance: The PXCFR China price was 1346 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 7200 yuan/ton. [8] - Fundamental Factors: The PX supply was affected by the conflict, and the PTA supply was high. The PX inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory increased. [8] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in PX, and wait and see for PTA. [8] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose significantly. The East China spot price was 9000 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open. [9] - Fundamental Factors: The supply pressure decreased, and the demand improved. [9] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - long - term short - sell at high prices. [9] MEG - Market Performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4813 yuan/ton. [9] - Fundamental Factors: The domestic and overseas supply decreased, the inventory in East China ports increased, and the MEG inventory decreased significantly. [9] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in EG, but be aware of the risk of a sharp correction. [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price fluctuated sharply. It rose first and then fell due to the news of the G7 releasing oil reserves. [9] - Fundamental Factors: Iran's oil production and export were affected by the conflict, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was severely restricted. [9] - Trading Strategy: Participate in trading through options to control risks. [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract rose significantly. The East China spot price was 12000 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed. [10] - Fundamental Factors: The pure benzene and styrene inventories improved, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. [10] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - long - term the supply - demand will weaken. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, inflation expectations, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices fell 1.12% to $5082 per ounce, and international silver prices fell 1.4% to $82.2 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: With the military action between the US, Israel and Iran entering the sixth day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing a temporary 8% surge in WTI crude oil. The initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures was reduced from 9% to 7%, and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term focus is on the US - Iran war. The expectation of stagflation due to rising oil prices and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on metals. The large amount of copper delivered in London and the rapid accumulation of global visible inventories suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.08% to 24,815 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the price of electrolytic aluminum was under pressure at night, there is still upward potential due to the systemic risk of the global aluminum supply chain caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.65% to 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants had both maintenance and复产, and the operating capacity continued to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to the intertwined influence of factors such as new capacity expansion expectations and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 31.81%, and the position decreased by 7.36% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of blast furnaces in operation increased by 19 this week, with an operating rate of 25%. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to reach nearly 90,000 tons in March after resuming work [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual start - up of large factories. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, consider short - selling at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 155,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) increased by $25 to $2200 per ton. The SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 2000 yuan to 156,000 yuan/ton. The weekly production increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons. SMM expects the production in March to be 106,390 tons, an 8.7% increase from January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low - inventory situation in the short - term off - season supports the price to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan. The subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new - energy vehicle terminal consumption [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume decreased by 19.89%, and the position decreased by 1.94% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production remained flat, and the industry inventory increased by 3.5% week - on - week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly last week. The prices of downstream products were stable, and some products of JinkoSolar will increase in price by 30 - 40% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading factories, the expectation of resuming production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly between 40,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict and concerns about AI narratives dominate the market. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Wa State is within expectations. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 418 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 1000 - 1500 yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 180,000 tons to 980,000 tons, and the production increased by 80,000 tons to 1.73 million tons. The inventory accumulation of steel products is slowing down seasonally, but the inventory level is at a record high. The supply - demand of building materials and hot - rolled coils shows different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling rebar in the short - term. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 760.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 30,000 tons to 179 million tons. The steel mill profit is poor, and the blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory of mainstream iron ore at ports is at a historical low [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1091.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the Spring Festival, and now steel mills are considering a price cut. The steel mill profit is poor, and the increase in blast - furnace production may be slow. The port customs clearance volume remains high, and the inventory at different links shows a differentiated pattern [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling coking coal in the short - term. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and Brazil is in the middle of the harvest season. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is also strong. Overall, the supply - demand of US soybeans is expected to improve, but the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the demand for US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and pay attention to policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large, but the selling intention is not strong, and the progress is slow. The inventory at ports and downstream is low, and downstream industries are in losses. The spot price is still dominated by the production area [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The effective supply is limited, and downstream replenishment is expected. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, MPOA estimates that the production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16% month - on - month, but it is expected to enter the seasonal production - increasing period in March. On the demand side, ITS shows that the export in February decreased by 21% month - on - month. The market estimates that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 6.5% to 2.63 million tons [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is in a weak cycle, but the recent sharp rise in crude oil has led to a rebound. Pay attention to the later crude oil price and production in the production area [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated strongly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending February 26, the net export sales of US cotton in 2025/2026 increased by 150,400 bales, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The cotton export from Brazil in February was 270,000 tons, a 2% decrease year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The sharp increase in crude oil prices led to an increase in the prices of chemical fiber products. The PMI in China in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [8]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand. Although the catering and school sectors have some purchasing demand after resuming work and school, the impact on egg prices is expected to be limited. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to remain low [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices were weak, and spot prices decreased slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume of the breeding side will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 7400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract weakened. The overseas market price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there are no new installations in the first half of the year, and some existing installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict. The import volume is expected to decrease. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is slightly decreasing, and the basis is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 5016, an increase of 0.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PVC prices continued to rebound. The domestic supply is stable, with an expected production of 2.148 million tons in January, a 0.49% month - on - month increase and a 2.46% year - on - year increase. The downstream factories are gradually resuming work. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion. The social inventory reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Overseas costs are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $1055 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5800 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 34 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX remains at a historical high. Some domestic and overseas PX installations are under maintenance. The supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, it will affect the raw material supply. The PX long - spread position can be continued to hold, and it is recommended to wait and see for PTA due to the inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1055, an increase of 0.6% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The supply has decreased significantly, and there are plans to resume production in North China recently. The inventory has accumulated again. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly yesterday. The East China spot price of PP was 7450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was strong. The overseas market price rose slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the new installations in the first half of the year are reduced, and some installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the shortage of raw materials caused by the US - Iran conflict. The supply pressure is significantly reduced, and the export window is open. On the demand side, the downstream is gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and the demand is improving month - on - month. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction will still be large. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 4132 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 31 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2025, China imported about 1.05 million tons of MEG from Iran, accounting for 15% of imports and about 4% of apparent supply. From the Middle East, it imported 4.74 million tons, accounting for 61% of imports and about 17% of apparent supply. In March, MEG installations will have more maintenance, and polyester demand will pick up, leading to inventory reduction. However, the current social inventory is at a historical high [11].