4、美联储理事米兰表示，经济需要大幅降息，货币政策正在拖累经济，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中 性水平。 文字早评 2025/11/26 星期三 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： 股指 【行情资讯】 1、外交部：中美元首通话是美方发起的通话氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的； 2、离岸、在岸人民币均升破 7.09 触及逾一年盘中新高； 3、阿里巴巴公告，2026 财年第二季度财报营收 2,478.0 亿元，同比增长 4.8%；云智能集团收入 398.2 亿元，同比增长 34%。阿里巴巴称，未来三年内不太可能出现人工智能泡沫； IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-0.74%/-1.03%/-2.02%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.79%/-1.55%/-3.14%/-6.09%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.08%/-2.02%/-4.08%/-7.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.30%/-0.47%/-0.48%/-0.77%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical risks. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply tightness persisted, with high scrap premium. Recommended waiting for clearer direction before trading [1]. - **Aluminum**: Prices declined slightly. Supply increased, while demand rose marginally. Short - term trend was expected to be oscillatory [1]. - **Alumina**: Prices dropped slightly. Some producers cut production, while demand remained high. Short - term prices were expected to be weak [1]. - **Lead**: Prices decreased. Supply was constrained by raw materials, and demand was affected by high prices. Recommended waiting and watching [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand was supported. Organic silicon planned to cut production. Recommended waiting and watching [1][2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased. Demand was strong in the short - term, but weak in the long - term. Recommended low - level long positions with caution [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. - **Tin**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Prices increased. Inventory decreased, and supply and demand were weak. Recommended holding short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices increased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended short - selling iron ore 2605 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices decreased. Supply and demand were weak. Recommended short - selling coking coal 2605 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices were strong. Global supply was tightening, and demand was good. Domestic market was relatively strong [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply was delayed, and short - term demand was strong. Long - term prices were expected to decline [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil prices increased. Supply was high in the short - term and expected to decrease later. Recommended anti - spread trading [6]. - **Sugar**: Prices decreased. International supply was tight, and domestic supply was expected to increase. Recommended short - selling futures and options [6]. - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US production increased, and domestic demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices were expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Apples**: Prices were stable. Supply was affected by bad weather, and inventory was low. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: Prices were flat. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [7]. - **PTA**: PX prices were high, and PTA supply pressure was large. Recommended taking profits on PX long positions and short - selling PTA processing fees [7]. - **Rubber**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory was accumulating. Recommended an oscillatory trading strategy [7]. - **Glass**: Prices decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [8]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [8]. - **MEG**: Prices oscillated. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Recommended short - selling above a certain level [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were bearish, but geopolitical risks were high. Short - term oscillations were expected, and short positions were recommended if supply reduction was less than expected [8]. - **Styrene**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were improving in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Recommended short - term oscillations with limited upside [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was stable, and demand was balanced. Recommended waiting and watching [9]. - **Urea**: Prices increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand was in the off - season. Short - term oscillations were expected [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Hogs: Sideways [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are expected to continue rebounding due to the breakthrough of the bottom pattern and the support from the spot market. The downstream feed enterprises are purchasing as needed and remaining cautious in the long - term [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic protein meal is strong, but the sufficient supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal limits the upside space. A strategy of long futures + selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [1]. - Oils are experiencing a short - term rebound. The short - term long strategy can be considered, but the high inventory of the three major oils remains a factor [1]. - Egg futures prices are continuing to rebound. The expected decline in future production capacity supports the futures market. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes for trading opportunities [1]. - Hog futures show a pattern of far - month strength and near - month weakness. The short - term price is at a low level, but the long - term long position of the far - month 2609 contract is a market focus [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Argentina's oilseed workers' union and the industry association reached an agreement on salary increases [3]. - On November 6, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market decreased by 0.7% [3]. - The CNF price and import cost of US soybeans for December shipment are higher than those of Brazilian soybeans [3]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][20][24] Group 5: Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, or waiting and observing based on the specific market conditions [2][3][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rebounded, with international gold prices rising over 1% to $3978 per ounce. The US political situation and economic data influenced the market. Domestic gold ETFs had an inflow of 1.1 tons. The trading strategy is to buy on support for gold and reduce long positions for silver [2]. - **Silver**: Inventories in various exchanges decreased. The trading strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and stabilized. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic demand was expected to improve. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, while the demand weakened. The price may be under pressure to correct [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply decreased due to environmental protection measures, while the demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Zinc**: The price decreased slightly. The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, but the terminal orders were weak. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price increased slightly. The supply was marginally loose, but the lead concentrate was in tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated. The supply decreased, and the demand was supported. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The price may have short - term correction pressure but is supported by strong demand. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [5]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was affected by policies. The trading strategy is to buy on dips or consider selling put options [5]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated and stabilized. The supply was tight, and the demand improved. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on dips [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price decreased slightly. The supply and demand had limited contradictions, and the futures discount marginally shrank. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The trading strategy is to exit and wait and observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased slightly. The supply and demand were neutral, and the futures premium was high. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. The domestic market follows the cost - end and oscillates strongly. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates in a narrow range. The spot price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to oscillate in a range [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is weak and shows differentiation among varieties. The trading strategy is to be bearish and focus on reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The international price is weak, and the domestic price shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The trading strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The international price decreased, and the domestic price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies [9]. - **Eggs**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Pigs**: The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to be weak [9]. - **Apples**: The price increased. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price decreased slightly. The supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand weakened. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [10]. - **PTA**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the demand improved. The trading strategy is to take profit on long positions of PX and sell short on rallies for PTA [11]. - **Rubber**: The price decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11]. - **PP**: The price decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies [12]. - **Crude Oil**: The price decreased. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and short - selling can be considered if the Russian oil reduction is less than expected [12]. - **Styrene**: The price decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Zinc**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Lead**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PTA and PX**: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].

Report Details - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors show positive signals from Sino-US meetings and economic and trade consultations. Palm oil faces pressure due to strong production increase expectations in major producing areas, slowing export data, and expected inventory increases, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. Soybean imports are expected to decrease after November, and soybean oil may turn to inventory reduction. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the progress of Sino - Canadian relations, with domestic spot basis remaining stable and strong and continuing the inventory reduction trend. Short - term is seen as volatile adjustment, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review** - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 390; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 320. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 480; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 400. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: In November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remains stable: 24 - degree palm oil in Dongguan factories is 01 - 80 [7] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term: View as volatile adjustment. Long - term: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast** - Rabobank expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the USDA's current forecast of 175 million tons [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Data** - From October 1 to 24, Brazil's soybean export volume was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing Progress** - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná state, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent and good rate is 98%, and the general - rated proportion is 2%. 28% of the soybeans are germinating, 1% are in the flowering stage, and 71% are in the vegetative growth stage [9][10] - **Global Soybean Production Forecast** - The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 428 million tons, lower than the September expectation of 428.7 million tons and last year's 428.6 million tons. The US soybean production is adjusted down to 116 million tons, and Brazil's is expected to be 177 million tons [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and some price spreads and exchange rate data. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - **PVC**: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - **Rubber**: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - **Glass**: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - **PP**: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Soda Ash**: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].