生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 -375 | 前值 વેર | 涨跌 -470 | 涨跌幅 -494.74% | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 生猪2511 | 11595 | 12352 | -760 | -6.15% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 12165 | 12825 | -660 | -5.15% | | | 生猪11-1价差 | -570 | -470 | -100 | -21.28% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 58336 | 61105 | -2769 | -4.53% | #h | | 仓单 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11220 | 12450 | -1230.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11820 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 生猪 周一，生猪期货延续下行，主力 2511 合约日收跌 2.23%，报收 12295 元/吨。现 货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.18 元/公斤，环比跌 0.08 元/ 公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 12.58 元/公斤，环比跌 0.08 元/公斤，山东、 四川、广东、辽宁不同程度下跌。节前需求量有所增加，对生猪形成一定提振， 然而，由于供给充裕，出栏量大，生猪现货价格延续弱势，对盘面继续形成抑制， 生猪期货主力 2511 合约延续下行。最新数据显示，2025 年 8 月末，我国能繁母 猪存栏 4038 万头，环比下降 0.1%，产能调控措施有所显现。但根据生猪生长周 期规律，能翻存栏下降反馈到生猪出栏仍需时日，短期较难体现。建议轻仓或空 仓过节。关注节日期间终端消费情况及后市产能端变化。 震荡偏弱 农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米 11 月合约平开低走，期价震荡下行，日线以小阴线收盘， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-26 【异动品种】 油脂观点：关注贸易政策变化，近⽇油脂波动⻛险加⼤ 逻辑：因市场对美豆出口需求滞后的担忧，周三美豆类震荡偏空，昨日国 内油脂反弹。从宏观环境看，因鲍威尔对进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度，周 三美元走强；原油方面，因上周美国原油库存意外下降，及伊拉克、委内 瑞拉和俄罗斯原油出口受阻，周三原油价格上涨。从产业端看，当前美豆 收获进度基本正常，但近期美豆优良率持续下调，且已低于去年同期水 平；天气预报显示未来2周美豆产区降水偏少，后期美豆单产继续下调的 概率较大。今年以来美国生柴产量和对美豆油的使用量同比减少，而市场 对美国生柴政策和美豆出口需求担忧情绪升温。近日阿根廷农产品出口额 或已达70亿美元，其对大豆及衍生品的出口税政策的影响或告一段落。国 内进口大豆到港量预计将季节性下降，国内豆油库存或将逐步见顶。棕油 方面，MPOA和SPPOMA数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕产量环比-4.26%和-7. 89%，ITS和AmSpec数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕出口环比8.7%和8.3%，如 此马棕9月累库幅度或有限。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The Malaysian crude palm oil futures market is oscillating narrowly. With potential positive factors like slowing production growth and increasing exports, there's a chance for it to strengthen. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit if they can effectively stay above the moving average. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, a new upward space may open, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the upcoming China - US summit mentions China's purchase of US soybeans, CBOT soybeans will rise, boosting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic consumption is good during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, and soybean oil export news also supports the market. The Q4 increase in soybean supply may drag down forward contracts, while the rise in CBOT soybeans may boost near - term contracts [1]. Sugar - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August, weakening raw sugar prices, weakening processed sugar quotes, restricted sugar transportation in Guangxi, and a slowdown in spot purchases as the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking nears the end. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Cotton - On the supply side, there is little willingness to rush to buy seed cotton, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, resulting in significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will remain at a low level or may have a slight rebound due to the influence of the rhythm of corn supply and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Eggs - With the egg - laying hen inventory at a high level and the egg - laying rate and egg weight increasing after the weather cools down, the egg supply is sufficient. As the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival approach, cold - storage eggs are being released, increasing supply pressure. Recently, egg prices have declined, reducing traders' purchasing intentions. However, as the festivals approach, supermarkets and e - commerce may increase their egg purchases for promotions. It is expected that egg prices will oscillate within a bottom - range [10]. Meal - The uncertainty of the biodiesel blending policy and the unclear demand outlook for US soybeans suppress US soybean oil and soybeans. The US soybean supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues. Although the concern about the Q4 supply in China is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, and the terminal lacks stocking enthusiasm. There are many short - term negative factors for meal, but there is also a basis for a subsequent rebound [13]. Pigs - The supply pressure from farmers' increased slaughter is being realized. Although demand is slowly recovering, it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high, and there is continuous slaughter pressure before the double festivals. After the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting showed an intention to strengthen production capacity regulation, the slaughter pressure on farmers may increase, mainly affecting the market after mid - next year. In the short term, although there is state purchasing, the spot price lacks support, and near - term contracts will maintain a weak adjustment [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 19, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.94%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,328 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.53%). The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,300 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.32%); the futures price of P2601 was 9,316 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.13%). The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,180 yuan, up 120 yuan (1.19%); the futures price of OI601 was 10,068 yuan, up 84 yuan (0.84%) [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan, up 50 yuan (6.85%); the 2601 contract spread was - 1,062 yuan, up 24 yuan (2.21%). The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,560 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.63%); the 2601 contract spread was 1,740 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.35%) [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,461 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.24%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5,446 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.18%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.05 cents (0.31%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); in Kunming, it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,000 million tons, up 114 million tons (12.87%) [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of cotton 2605 was 13,705 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.62 cents (- 0.93%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,198 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan (- 0.33%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,283 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (- 0.24%) [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); the industrial inventory was 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%) [4]. Corn - **Corn**: On September 22, the price of corn 2511 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.41%); the basis was 112 yuan, up 9 yuan (8.74%) [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,463 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis was 97 yuan, up 8 yuan (8.99%) [6]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,112 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.64%); the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3,025 yuan/500KG, down 18 yuan (- 0.59%) [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.30%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,014 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.70%); the basis was - 64 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 48.84%) [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, up 30 yuan (1.17%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2,522 yuan, up 52 yuan (2.11%); the basis was 78 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 22.00%) [13]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,904 yuan, unchanged [13]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13,350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.15%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 12,370 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 149,450 heads, up 842 heads (0.57%); the weekly white - striped pig price was 0.00 yuan, down 19.97 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight was 128.45 kg, up 0.13 kg (0.10%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 24 yuan/head, down 41.3 yuan (- 245.13%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 199 yuan/head, down 37.4 yuan (- 23.08%); the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,042 million heads, down 1 million heads (- 0.02%) [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to previous full reaction to negative factors and macro - impacts. There is support for prices, but the upside is limited. Domestic soybeans have a loose supply, good demand, and large inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - For sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is accumulating. Although recent Brazilian sugar production increases have a negative impact on prices, considering the low price level and the fact that negatives are mostly priced in, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, with high - level imports, low domestic sugar inventory, and high sales - to - production ratio, Zheng sugar is likely to have a range - bound movement with a short - term rebound [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, the U.S. biodiesel market has digested some inventory, leading to a decline in the oilseeds and oils market. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory increase is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, both providing price support [19]. - For corn/corn starch, the U.S. corn futures are falling. Although the U.S. may lower the yield per unit, the overall production is at a new high, with limited short - term rebound space. In the domestic market, the supply is still tight, and the spot price is likely to fall, with the 01 contract expected to have limited downward space [28]. - For live pigs, the overall supply remains stable, but due to the relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices in the future [34]. - For peanuts, some peanuts are gradually coming onto the market, but the supply is limited due to weather. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [39]. - For eggs, as the replenishment in each link is coming to an end, the spot price is falling. Based on the current fundamentals, egg prices are expected to face pressure in the short term [45]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price difference between good and bad products is large. The expected low excellent - fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but considering the current futures price, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is gradually entering the acquisition stage. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginning mills will bring selling - hedging pressure. The demand improvement in the peak season is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [62]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.07% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.38% to $289.6 per short - ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of September 11, the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 923,000 tons, and 2026/2027 net sales were 2,000 tons. For soybean meal, 2024/2025 net sales were 31,000 tons, and 2025/2026 net sales were 151,000 tons. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6% to 177.67 million tons. Oil World expects the global sunflower seed production to be 58.7 million tons. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. Soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Exit the MRM05 spread widening; Options: Wait and see [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract fell 0.1 (- 0.62%) to 16.13 cents per pound, and London white sugar main contract fell 3.7 (- 0.81%) to $455.6 per ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar. From January to August, the import volume was 2.6121 million tons. In the 2024/2025 sugar - making season as of August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons. In the second half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 50.061 million tons, with a sugar production of 3.872 million tons. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 85, and the sugar quantity was 3.2827 million tons. In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons [9][10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and Zheng sugar has limited downward space; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [13][14]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market**: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main contract changed by - 0.68% to 51.17 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract changed by 0.11% to 4439 ringgit per ton [17]. - **Related Information**: As of September 16, about 36% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6%. The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil, 100,000 tons of soybean oil, and 140,000 tons of rapeseed oil [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider buying on dips in the short - term volatile market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.4% to 424.5 cents per bushel [25]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures fell on Thursday due to seasonal harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar. As of September 18, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.16 days. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 major corn - processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons. As of September 12, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 729,000 tons. On September 19, the purchase price in the northern port was 2240 yuan per ton [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for the U.S. December corn to correct from a high level, and buy on dips for the 01 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Related Information**: Live pig prices are falling, with different price ranges in different regions. As of September 16, the prices of piglets and sows also decreased. On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the national average pork wholesale price fell 0.9% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts; Arbitrage: Do the LH15 reverse spread; Options: Buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: The national average price of peanut kernels is 4.15 yuan per jin. Shandong and Henan oil mills have different purchase prices. The overall oil mill operating rate is low. The sales of peanut oil have slightly improved, and the price of peanut meal is stable. As of September 11, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 65,560 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 36,760 tons [36][37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The 11 and 01 contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and try to go long on the 05 contract after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly fell, and the egg market continued to fluctuate. In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion. As of September 11, the weekly egg sales in the representative sales areas were 7303 tons. The average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider shorting at high levels; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of September 10, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 209,100 tons. In July 2025, the apple export volume was 53,600 tons, and the import volume was 17,700 tons. The price of early - maturing apples varies by region, and the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia has decreased [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Apples are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there will be selling - hedging pressure after the new apples are on the market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.26 (0.39%) to 66.92 cents per pound [59]. - **Important Information**: As of September 13, the average temperature and rainfall in the U.S. cotton - growing areas decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, and the cotton spot trading is cold. The sales and transaction basis of cotton are in a certain range [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zheng cotton is expected to be slightly weak, suggesting selective trading; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [63][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].