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对先进制程未来需求的思考:从智驾到具身智能,世界还需几个台积和中芯?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 06:44
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the industry [7]. Core Insights - The demand for advanced process technology will be driven more by autonomous driving and embodied intelligence than by AI GPUs, which are currently receiving significant attention due to the rise of AI models like ChatGPT and DeepSeek [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the die size of autonomous driving SoCs is comparable to that of AI GPUs, but the terminal volume for autonomous driving is several times greater, leading to a much higher demand for advanced process capacity [3][4]. - The combined future demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence is projected to be approximately 165,000 wafers per month, significantly exceeding the current capacities of major players like TSMC [4]. Summary by Sections Perspective on Wafer Capacity - Autonomous driving SoCs have a die size close to that of AI GPUs, but the terminal volume for autonomous driving is expected to be ten times that of AI GPUs [15][32]. - The value contribution of wafer manufacturing to AI GPU production is only 2.25%, indicating that the demand for AI GPUs does not significantly drive wafer capacity [15][16]. - The report estimates that global demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving will reach 136,200 wafers per month, while AI GPUs will require only 39,700 wafers per month [4][36]. Application Scenario Perspective - Autonomous driving chips are viewed as equivalent to the brain chips of robots, suggesting that both sectors should be analyzed together for advanced process demand [3][4]. - The report cites Tesla's vision of producing billions of robots, indicating a potential market size that could rival or exceed that of smartphones [3][4]. Disruption of Downstream Structure - The growth of autonomous driving and embodied intelligence is expected to disrupt the existing downstream structure of advanced process applications, with these sectors becoming the primary consumers of wafer capacity [3][4]. - The report highlights that the combined demand from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence could require the equivalent of 3.25 times TSMC's current advanced process capacity [4][42]. Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the demand from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence will lead to a wave of capacity expansion in advanced processes [4][5]. - The slowing of Moore's Law indicates that the growth in chip performance will increasingly rely on scaling up production rather than technological breakthroughs [4][5].