个人观点仅供参考，文章中任何内容均不对您构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 板块方面商业航天全天24家涨停，正如昨晚所说，一个是高位核心辨识度的高抛低吸，另一个是低位补 涨挖掘，接下来还是这样，直到这个方向出现亏钱效应再说，今天是不是一一应验，接下来还是如此即 可。除了商业航天之外，剩下的基本上都是轮动，从脑机到智驾再到机器人和芯片，甚至包括今天的核 电，基本上都演绎了一波流，虽然分歧过后也有回流，那也是沾了行情好的光，一旦行情不好这些方向 兑现力度会更大，当然反过来只要行情好，很多有过表现的题材都会有回流机会，对于喜欢抄底的朋友 而言倒是一种选择。 来自深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司【马爱华】【执业编号：A0780623080001】 昨天是狼来了第一次，今天是狼来了第二次，你觉得还有几次？但不得不说大盘是真有韧性，最终还是 收出了一根低开高走的假阳线，从而构成了继续创造历史的15连阳，很多人现在都变得恐高，其实真没 必要，咱们说过很多次了，第一次调整大概率还是倒车接人的机会，所以只需做好两手准备即可，首先 就是手里还是要 ...

2025年刚迈过去，这一年发生了很多事，专研产品及技术的零跑很少露面，却能作出斐然的成绩，2024年创始人IP盛行一时，如今却遭受舆论旋涡，此 外，"降价+内卷"依旧是汽车行业的主旋律，BBA大降价促销，特斯拉销量下滑，这风云变幻的市场格局剑指国产新能源崛起。 智通财经APP了解到，汽车行业陆续公布了这一年的销量，整体格局稳定，比亚迪仍一家独大，而局部市场份额有所变动，零跑成为最大的新势力黑马，但 几家欢喜几家愁，部分传统合资品牌销量步入熊路。 根据各大车企公布的销量，比亚迪以460.24万辆销量稳居第一，在新能源汽车上月销处于遥遥领先的地位，零跑以59.7万辆成为新势力的榜首，月销自2025 年3月以来持续霸榜，且已连续9个月销冠。此外，以鸿蒙智行及小米汽车为代表的异军突起，销量在新势力中均脱颖而出。 这销量数据的背后，是产品力及营销力等多维度要素的综合体现，然而根据乘联会，前11月新能源零售渗透率已超过50%，在高基数下增速趋于放缓趋势， 市场蛋糕也越来越小，"三大预期"成为车企在"决赛圈"的制胜关键。 喜忧参半，行业格局趋于稳定 智通财经APP了解到，从12月份销量整体看，各大车企喜忧参半，一方面新势力 ...

个人观点仅供参考，文章中任何内容均不对您构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 压单又来了，就在今天收盘时，中信出现了14.5亿的压单，很多人担心，这是不是意味着行情要调整 了？其实不然，前面有两次类似的情况发生，分别是9月17日和10月24日，对应的压单有30亿和10亿， 30亿那次确实调整了一下，但是没两天就涨回来了，而10月24日之后是直接高举高打，所以这个压单顶 多就是心理层面的一些影响，又或者是上峰想要慢牛的一种体现，短期看来或许市场有调整的需求，但 是14连阳创历史的走法，意味着短期如果有调整，也会吸引更多资金涌入进来，因此调整大概率会成为 踏空者上车的好机会。 说回到题材上，真是铁打的商业航天，流水的其他题材，今天商业航天再次出现13家涨停，而且咱们说 的两个特征得到体现，一个是高位核心辨识度的高抛低吸，另一个是低位补涨挖掘，接下来还是这样， 直到这个方向出现亏钱效应再说。其次就是芯片和机器人，这个昨晚我们刚讲过，人形机器人和国产芯 片倒仍有一战之力，今天这两块都有表现，芯片更是涨停14家，比商业航天还强，不过别忘了前面说 的，铁打的商业航天，流水的其他题材，既然前有脑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive parts sector is expected to see a weakening overall Beta by 2026, with structural opportunities being more favorable than total market opportunities. The focus should be on "intelligent driving (L2++/L3/L4) + liquid cooling (AIDC) + humanoid robots" as key technological lines, along with long-term certainty in overseas expansion [1]. Summary by Categories EPS Dimension - Companies should seek alpha through high-competitiveness products that enhance market share and those that can increase average selling price (ASP) by entering high-value sectors through internal and external growth [2]. - Globalization is expected to enhance growth potential and risk resilience in the automotive parts sector, particularly in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia. With profit recovery and deeper customer engagement, companies may transition to global Tier 1/platform leaders between 2026 and 2030. Recommended companies include Fuyao Glass (600660), Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799), Minth Group, Joyson Electronics (600699), and Xingyuan Magnesium (301398), with New Spring Co., Ltd. (603179) as a focus [2]. PE Dimension - Intelligent Driving: The penetration of L2++ is accelerating, with L3 regulations and urban NOA speeding up, and L4-level smart vehicles being rapidly deployed. Companies should prioritize chips, domain controllers, core sensors, and drive-by-wire systems that demonstrate systematic capabilities in cost, algorithms, and safety redundancy. Recommended companies include Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame (000716), and Desay SV Automotive, with Bertel (603596) and Nexperia as points of interest [3]. - Robotics: Transitioning from "0 to 1" to "1 to 10," benefiting from large models and supply chains including actuators, reducers, lead screws, and force sensors. Focus should be on automotive parts leaders with "technology synergy + manufacturing collaboration." Recommended companies include Top Group (601689), Joyson Electronics, and Shuanghuan Transmission (002472), with YaPu Co., Ltd. (603013) and Daimay Co., Ltd. (603730) as points of interest [3]. - Liquid Cooling: Growth in AI capital expenditure and increased power consumption in AIDC are expected to create a market space of hundreds of billions for liquid cooling temperature control by 2030. The automotive parts sector should focus on thermal management, pipelines, and quick connectors, emphasizing system integration and cost reduction capabilities. Recommended companies include Minth Group, Yinlun Machinery (002126), and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [3].

"多年来，我们长城的技术思维、工程师思维非常严重。长城是销售汽车的公司，我们只会卖车，卖给别人，不会搞营销。即使今天我们的魏牌蓝山，依然 卖的还是产品，卖的是产品力，并没有营销力，也没有品牌力。" 12月22日,长城汽车创始人、董事长魏建军说。 当日，在保定举行的魏牌全新蓝山智能进阶版上市发布会上，魏建军用了半个小时的时间，复盘了魏牌过去九年的发展历程，并透露了魏牌未来的发展思 路。 魏建军上台后，先回忆了自己与里斯战略咨询创始人艾·里斯当年是如何讨论打造魏牌的，包括为什么用自己的姓氏命名新品牌，以及魏牌标识为什么要融 入"保定"元素。 魏牌的起步相当成功。2017年4月，魏牌首款车型VV7上市，当年销量便达到8.6万辆，2018年，魏牌销量进一步增至13.95万辆。但2021年后，魏牌在第二代 咖啡系列车型上市后，销量出现显著下滑。 此前一直有观点认为，魏牌第二代车型销量不理想，主要是因为营销"翻车"。魏建军此次回应称，第二代车型为呼应新能源时代的到来改了名，改名虽然不 算成功，但也不能说失败了。第二代车型的问题在于，受到了行业恶性内卷的大环境拖累。"从2021年底到2022年，（行业出现了）更加严重的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR, with significant growth in delivery volumes and profitability expected in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2014, Hesai Technology went public on NASDAQ in 2023 and plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2025 [1]. - The company has developed eight product series covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets [1]. - LiDAR delivery volume is projected to grow from 4,000 units in 2020 to 502,000 units in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1.5 million units in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 260 million yuan, marking a historical high, with annual net profit guidance raised to 350-450 million yuan [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its first full-year Non-GAAP profitability in 2024, with positive operating and net cash flow [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.03 billion, 4.18 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 46%, 38%, and 39% respectively [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $9 billion by 2030 and $14.8 billion by 2035 [2]. - The penetration rate of LiDAR in the domestic market is anticipated to reach 9.0% by 2025, with a projected installation volume of 2.5 million units [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the gradual implementation of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, which will likely enhance LiDAR penetration rates [1]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has strong technical barriers, being the first to successfully apply chip solutions in both transmission and reception modules, and is the only fully self-researched LiDAR company globally [2]. - Manufacturing capabilities include a fully automated production line with a 100% automation rate in core processes, allowing for rapid product iteration and high-quality mass production [3]. - The company has established strong customer relationships, with major partnerships in both the ADAS and robotics sectors, including collaborations with leading automotive manufacturers and Robotaxi companies [3]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue capturing market share domestically and internationally, with the robotics LiDAR sector anticipated to become a significant growth driver [4]. - The target market capitalization is set at 33.4 billion yuan with a target price of 235.93 HKD, reflecting a 35% upside potential [4].

目前L系列与i8/MEGA处于订单驱动交付的状态，i6处于产能驱动交付的状态。 另外观察理想与其他品牌各车型销量，有三个普遍性规律： 2025年12月1日理想官方说i6和i8累计订单突破10万辆，预计明年初，i6的月产能将稳步提升至两万 辆。 2025年11月14日晚点说i6快速锁单8万辆订单。详见《 平替时代：一家车企、一个行业如何被自己的 成功困住 》 截至2025年11月30日，i6累计交付约12977，i8累计交付约20396。 由于置换补贴提前结束，年底并没有出现通常会出现的订单更好的情况。春节前是自然淡月，26年2 月16日为除夕，法定假日将放到26年2月23日。 据观察，理想依然在非发布会期是不存在一个具体的人对价值传递进行总负责（发布会前后看起来对 单一车型是存在的），故合情推理对理想26年2月前的销量适合降低预期。 从第一性上分析，销量只取决于价值创造，价值传递，价值交付。这个模型虽然无法进行定量分析， 但是可以完备地把所有潜在影响因素纳入框架。 价值创造为不包含情绪价值的狭义产品力与情绪价值。 价值传递即为消费者认可的价值创造投影。 价值交付为狭义产品交付/售后/良品率/向往感认同感交付等 ...

周五前有股指期货各大空头集体加仓，后有平潭带动高位股尾盘跳水，周一行情到底怎么走？如果还不 知道下周该怎么交易的请务必听我说完，首先我们来一下股指期货的多空持仓情况，很明显三大指数合 约的净空头都是加仓为主，中信更是直接加仓1953张，所以数据告诉我们机构资金开始逐步转向防御， 这点也很好的解释了为什么周五尾盘平潭跳水以及防御题材上位了，不过需要注意的是，周五晚间老美 科技股集体反弹，明天开盘应该问题不大，倘若高开后未明显下跌，则说明这里依然有承接，行情还将 以震荡为主，否则大盘存在调整风险。 说完大盘再来说说情绪，周四视频的最后，我们特地提醒大家，周五对高位股是个坎，几个核心票仍需 经过市场检验，结果平潭在尾盘的时候就飞流直下，平潭是这轮嵌套周期的龙头，正所谓龙头不A杀， 所以这里先不用去担心它会一跌到底，快则周一慢则周二就能看到平潭止跌，但是这个下跌却起到了吹 哨人的作用，不排除接下来的高位抱团有点想要瓦解的意思，因此对于高位股来说，即便还能新高，其 风险也会逐步大于机会，这样看来或许机构围绕易中天抱团这件事还能继续下去。 板块方面近期呈现几个特点，首先就是消息面占据主导，无论是核电还是智驾，又或者是光模 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Leap Motor has achieved record sales in November, delivering 70,327 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - Leap Motor's cumulative sales from January to November reached 536,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.4%, successfully meeting the annual delivery target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [1] - The launch of the new model Lafa5 on November 27, priced between 97,800 to 121,800 yuan, is expected to enhance the company's product lineup and drive future sales growth [1] Group 2 - The company is in a strong new vehicle cycle, with plans to launch multiple products globally over the next three years, including the recently launched B10, B01, and Lafa5 [2] - Leap Motor has established a robust domestic sales network with 866 sales outlets as of September 30, 2025, and has expanded its international presence with over 700 sales and service points across approximately 30 markets [2] - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving, with a nearly 100% increase in team size and computational resources planned for the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The domestic market is expected to see continued sales growth driven by strong new vehicle cycles and competitive pricing strategies [3] - The partnership with Stellantis, the fourth largest automotive group globally, allows Leap Motor to leverage existing sales and production networks for efficient international expansion [3] - Forecasted net profits for Leap Motor are projected to be 630 million, 5.01 billion, and 8.37 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 108.7X, 13.8X, and 8.2X [3]

根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的转发。若您不 是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 摘 要 受补贴政策退坡预期影响，市场当前对汽车明年周期下行的悲观预期较为充分，我们认为销量表现可能好于市场预期，投资机会围绕预期修复、个股 alpha，以及零部件的智驾/机器人/液冷板块行情来布局。 销量展望： 预计2026年零售+1.0%、批发+4.6%，其中电车批发+8%、油车批发+1%，库存微增20万辆（按年末），出口686万辆/+21%。相较于市场更悲观的销量预 期，我们销量展望更为乐观，来源在于：1）4Q25销量低于预期，部分需求会顺延至明年，降低25年基数、抬高26年尤其26Q1需求；2）对政策托底持积 极预期。 竞争展望： 整车角度，经济型和高端型品牌头部格局已基本成型，二线品牌进一步放量难度加大，价格端主要体现：1）行业进入"被动加库"的价格压力提升；2）反 内卷的政策指引减缓价格压力。零部件角度，则主要考虑电车增 ...