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Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-31 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per common share increased by 4.5% to $8.41 at quarter end, resulting in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter [9][23] - The debt-to-equity ratio slightly increased to 6.7% from 6.5%, as the company reduced the percentage of preferred stock in its capital structure [10] - The investment portfolio totaled $5.7 billion, consisting of $4.8 billion in agency mortgages and $0.9 billion in agency CMBS [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 13% quarter over quarter, with a focus on 4.5% versus 5.5% coupons [18] - Higher coupon specified pool payouts improved during the quarter, reflecting increased investor demand for prepayment protection [17] - Agency CMBS risk premiums declined quarter over quarter, indicating increased investor demand [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The yield curve steepened, with two-year Treasury yields falling 11 basis points while 30-year yields were down just four basis points [12] - Interest rates declined across the Treasury yield curve, with a notable decrease in interest rate volatility [7][14] - The average unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, while inflation measures remained above the Federal Reserve's target [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains constructive on agency mortgages, expecting investor demand to broaden due to lower interest rate volatility and attractive valuations [11] - The focus on improving the capital structure and reducing the cost of capital continues, with a commitment to maximizing shareholder returns [24] - The company is monitoring the agency CMBS sector for opportunities to increase allocation as relative value becomes attractive [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management views near-term risks as balanced, with expectations for further easing of monetary policy to support agency mortgages in the long term [24] - The company anticipates that changes to bank regulatory capital rules will increase investor demand for agency mortgages and agency CMBS [11] - The economic environment is characterized by strong corporate earnings and improved growth, despite persistent inflation [5][6] Other Important Information - The company raised $36 million by issuing common stock through its ATM program, maintaining a disciplined approach to benefit existing shareholders [10] - The company retained a sizable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $423 million [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in hedge portfolio and net duration exposure - Management indicated a slight reduction in steepener positions and a preference for moving hedges into the front end of the curve, with model duration running slightly long [26][27] Question: Returns on marginal capital deployment relative to dividend level - Levered gross returns were in the upper teens, with net returns in the mid-teens, consistent with the dividend to book yield [30][31] Question: Appetite for changing capital structure with buybacks and common issuance - Management noted that preferred buybacks had minimal impact on capital structure, and they are currently not buying back shares but will consider it if conditions are favorable [35][36] Question: Relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS - Agency RMBS continues to provide a more attractive return on equity compared to agency CMBS, which is more aligned with lower coupon agency RMBS [37]