从运行节奏看，利率或呈现"两阶段"特征：年初至上半年，降准降息前置落地有望推动利率下行；年中 以后，随着通胀回升对名义增速形成支撑，以及地方化债逐步收尾、信用扩张条件改善，利率存在阶段 性上行压力。 一方面，中央经济工作会议延续适度宽松的货币政策定调，我们预计政策利率仍有10bps左右的调降空 间。结合央行在2025年三季度货政报告中提出保持合理的利率比价关系，判断2026年10年期国债收益率 中枢下移幅度与政策利率调整幅度大体一致。 另一方面，利率债仍将维持"低利率+高波动"格局，震荡幅度预计与2025年相当。2025年央行国债操作 变化、股债跷跷板效应及监管不确定性显著放大了利率波动，展望2026年，尽管政策基调延续宽松，但 降准降息的落地节奏仍存在分歧，扰动因素尚未完全消退，预计10年期国债收益率仍将保持约30bps的 波动区间。 中信证券指出，相较于2025年中国10年国债收益率1.6%-1.9%的运行区间，我们判断2026年收益率中枢 或下移10bps，同时维持30bps左右的震荡空间。 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 今年债市整体的性价比很低，超长期国债尤为明显。即便做波段，胜算也相对有限。近期超长债持 续走弱，价格不断回调。即便是今年不看好国债的我，也开始关注其中出现的一些阶段性机会。 那么，超长期国债是什么？ 简单来说，就是到期年限在20年及以上的国债，这类国债主要由保险、养老金等长期资金进行配 置。普通投资者较为常见的参与方式，是场内的30年期国债ETF （511090） 。 为什么很多普通者会选择30年国债ETF？主要因为它的弹性大。 期限越长，国债价格对利率变化越 敏感 。当利率处于趋势性下行阶段时，这种高久期特征往往能够被充分放大。 2024年就是典型的例子。这一年，30年期国债ETF （511090） 收涨了23.21%，收益率相当可观。 进入今年年初，超长债虽然延续了约两个月的债牛行情，但随后逐步进入回调通道，近期跌幅尤为 明显。 从11月初至12月8日，30年期国债ETF （511090） 累计下跌 ...

【英日响应投资者需求增加短期借款，面临利率波动风险】12月3日数据显示，英国和日本正响应投资者 需求增加短期借款。此举可降低政府利息支付，但债务展期时会面临高成本利率波动风险。 今年，英国大 幅削减长期债券销售至创纪录低点，还考虑扩大超短期票据市场。日本在长期债券遭抛售后，正听取增加 短期债务发行的呼吁。 瑞穗证券策略师称，若利率走高，利息支出会突然大幅增加。这些增长反映了通胀 压力和传统买家对长期债务需求的减弱。 几十年来，英国收益养老基金购买长期债券匹配负债，使英国能 延长发行债券平均期限。如今，许多此类计划正逐步结束。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 he xun.co 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 Яラ,片夕此关川划止赵少与末。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - The core argument highlights the impact of central bank policies and the resulting liquidity surge in global markets, leading to record highs in major stock indices and increased leverage among various market participants [1][3] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets by nearly 40% over the past five years has resulted in a significant influx of cheap money into financial markets, with hedge funds leveraging their capital threefold and retail investors using credit to buy stocks [3] - The current market dynamics reflect a "buy more as prices rise" mentality, creating a positive feedback loop that raises concerns about the sustainability of such growth [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the emerging risks associated with rising interest rates, particularly the impact of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate hikes in 2024, which could increase financing costs for highly leveraged institutions [4] - It notes that the global stock options market has surpassed $50 trillion in open contracts, with many being "naked options" sold by institutional investors, posing a risk of forced liquidations during market volatility [4] - Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable, facing currency depreciation and debt repayment pressures as the Fed tightens liquidity, which could lead to a global ripple effect in stock markets [4] Group 3 - The narrative suggests that the current risks stem from the collision of leveraged funds and the withdrawal of liquidity, drawing parallels to past financial crises [6] - It emphasizes the need for investors to adopt a cautious approach, such as reducing exposure to overvalued assets and considering safe-haven investments like gold [6] - The article calls for enhanced regulatory oversight of leveraged funds, particularly hedge funds and shadow banking, to mitigate systemic risks [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income weekly report dated November 16, 2025, focusing on the bond market and related data [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield is expected to remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% until the end of the year. There may be a better layout opportunity in the first quarter of next year when betting on interest rate cuts. A potential fund redemption fee new rule in early December could lead to a pulse - like rise in interest rates, presenting a good entry opportunity [13] - The US 12 - month interest rate cut probability has decreased, and US Treasury yields have collectively risen. The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased [15][20][21] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 One - Week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield decreased by 0.1bp from 1.8060% to 1.8050%. The bond market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. Two factors restricted the interest rate from breaking through the range: market expectations of the weakening fundamentals and the higher probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year [9][13] - **US Bond Market**: The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was 98.2%, lower than the expected 98.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased from 228,000 to about 225,000. The probability of a December interest rate cut decreased, and US Treasury yields rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 4.12%, and the 2 - year yield rose 2bp to 3.59% [15][20][21] 4.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 4.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations from November 10 - 14, 2025, had a net injection of 781 billion yuan. Interest rate bonds' total issuance, total repayment, and net financing showed certain changes compared to the previous week [27] 4.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity prices such as steel and LME non - ferrous metals had mixed rises and falls. The total floor area of commercial housing transactions showed a downward trend [50][51] 4.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 4.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - From November 10 - 14, 2025, 73 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan, a net financing of 242.792 billion yuan. The top five provinces in terms of issuance amount were Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Beijing [76][78] 4.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong [90] 4.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - Some provinces and regions have planned local bond issuances from November 17 - 21, 2025 [98] 4.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 4.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 311 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 268.14 billion yuan, a total repayment of 236.697 billion yuan, and a net financing of 31.443 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.068 billion yuan compared to the previous week [94] 4.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The short - term financing bill's latest issuance interest rate was 1.7115%, up 7.53bp; the medium - term note was 2.1127%, down 1.53bp; the corporate bond was not provided; the corporate bond was 2.2449%, up 2.72bp [106] 4.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total credit bond trading volume was 538.76 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [107] 4.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased, while those of credit bonds such as short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends [108][109][111] 4.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally widened [115][118][120] 4.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [124][127][131] 4.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type were listed, and the industrial industry had the largest weekly bond trading volume [136][137] 4.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks, and no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [138][139]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial for global stock markets, particularly in the context of economic growth and inflation trends [1][53][54] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, with multiple cuts leading to a total reduction of 0.25% by October 2025 [4][11] - Economic growth rate is the primary long-term factor influencing interest rates, with a slowing economy typically leading to lower rates [6][54] Group 2 - Inflation rates significantly impact short-term interest rate movements, with high inflation often necessitating rate hikes to control it [6][7] - The article highlights that from 2020 to mid-2022, inflation surged to 9.1%, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement the most aggressive rate hikes in two decades [9][10] - As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. has decreased to around 3%, indicating a potential stabilization of inflation [10] Group 3 - The article discusses the correlation between interest rates and various asset classes, noting that lower rates generally lead to higher asset prices across stocks, bonds, and real estate [17][18] - Since the initiation of the rate-cutting cycle, global stock markets have shown significant gains, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the rise due to their lower valuations at the start of the cycle [15][24] - Specific performance metrics include a 54.1% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 63.46% rise in the CSI All Share Index since the rate cuts began [24] Group 4 - The article explains how interest rate changes affect the U.S. dollar and other currencies, with a decrease in U.S. rates leading to a stronger renminbi against the dollar [31][33] - The depreciation of the dollar relative to other currencies during the rate-cutting cycle has facilitated capital inflows into renminbi-denominated assets, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [36][37] Group 5 - The article addresses common questions regarding the timing of market reactions to rate cuts, indicating that markets often price in expected rate changes weeks in advance [39][40] - It also discusses the ongoing pressure on the U.S. government to manage its debt through lower interest rates, with projections indicating that rates may continue to decline [44][46] - The cyclical nature of interest rates is emphasized, with historical patterns showing alternating periods of increases and decreases over the past 10-20 years [47][52]

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China has transitioned from "quality improvement and expansion" to "normal issuance" by 2025, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan, reaching 221 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Trends and Developments - In 2025, the primary market continued to see strong issuance and subscription activity, characterized by a richer variety of asset types and high subscription multiples for new projects, with over 12 projects having subscription multiples exceeding 100 times by the end of Q3 [4][8]. - The secondary market exhibited a "rising then falling" trend, with an overall increase in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline due to rising long-term interest rates and profit-taking demands [4][14]. 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, the primary market is expected to focus on new asset types and accelerated project expansions supported by policy measures, while the private REITs market is anticipated to grow rapidly [5][34]. - The secondary market is expected to remain influenced by interest rate fluctuations and funding needs, with high dividend-bearing assets maintaining good investment value [5][40]. Asset Type Expansion and Innovation - The 2025 public REITs market saw a continuous expansion of asset types, including the successful launch of several "firsts" in various sectors, notably data centers and municipal infrastructure [12][34]. - The approval and issuance of data center REITs marked a significant breakthrough, indicating the entry of public REITs into the digital infrastructure sector [12][34]. Investor Sentiment and Participation - Investor enthusiasm for new public REITs remained high, with many new projects experiencing substantial first-day gains, reflecting a strong profit-making effect [12][13]. - Institutional investor participation continued to rise, with an average institutional investor share of 97.21% by the first half of 2025, indicating growing recognition and engagement with public REITs [19][21]. Market Structure and Strategy - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is seen as essential for further market scale enhancement, with a focus on supply-side measures to improve market capacity and liquidity [31][34]. - The private REITs market is expected to complement public REITs by covering a broader range of asset types and facilitating the revitalization of existing real estate assets [35][39]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, prioritizing projects with resilient or improving fundamentals, while also considering high-potential projects that show value after valuation corrections [5][40]. - Attention should be given to projects with strong fundamentals and short-term improvement expectations, as well as those with attractive valuations in the logistics and industrial park sectors [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed an overall volatile performance in the latest week. On October 31, the yield to maturity of the active 10Y Treasury bond dropped to 1.79%, and the 30Y - 10Y term spread narrowed. Medium - and short - term bonds remained strong [4][10]. - There were three characteristics of institutional behavior this week: large banks increased their purchases of short - term bonds, securities firms increased their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds, and funds allocated more to credit bonds than to interest - rate bonds [4][10]. - In November, the money market rate and short - term bonds are expected to be stable, but the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may not decline significantly. The money market is likely to be stable, and the short - end interest rate is expected to range between 1.35% - 1.40%. Although the 1Y AAA - rated CD rate has dropped to 1.63%, it is less likely to decline further [4][11]. - Interest rates are in a high - probability winning state this year, but the probability of a trending market is not high, yet there are structural opportunities. The October PMI was lower than market expectations, and the fundamentals are generally not negative for the bond market. The 30Y - 10Y Treasury spread, 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury spread, and 5Y CDB - Treasury spread are at relatively high odds [4][11]. - The short - term performance of Bond 25 Special 06 is strong, but there is a certain risk of interest rate increase. The balance of Bond 25 Special 06 was 247 billion yuan on October 31. The probability of its refinancing next year is small, and there is a "herding" phenomenon among funds holding this bond. If it is not refinanced, it may experience excessive decline [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped to 1.79% on October 31, and the 30Y - 10Y term spread narrowed. Medium - and short - term bonds were strong [10]. - Large banks mainly bought Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 1Y and 1 - 3Y. Securities firms increased their purchases of 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds, with low net purchases of policy - financial bonds. Funds continued to allocate more to credit bonds than to interest - rate bonds since October [4][10]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of October 31, compared with October 27, the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 7.95bp to 1.38%, the 10Y Treasury yield dropped 4.69bp to 1.80%, and the 30Y Treasury yield dropped 6.00bp to 2.14% [13]. - The 30Y Treasury - 10Y Treasury spread dropped 1.31bp to 34.77bp, and the 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury spread dropped 2.41bp to 13.00bp [14]. 3.2.2 Treasury Term Spread Changes - As of October 31, compared with October 27, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury spread dropped 2.28bp to 3.20bp, the 5Y - 3Y Treasury spread rose 6.31bp to 15.16bp, the 7Y - 5Y Treasury spread dropped 4.14bp to 11.06bp, the 10Y - 7Y Treasury spread rose 3.37bp to 11.86bp, the 20Y - 10Y Treasury spread dropped 1.63bp to 32.88bp, and the 30Y - 20Y Treasury spread rose 0.32bp to 1.89bp [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Balance of Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase - As of October 31, 2025, compared with October 27, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 0.40 trillion yuan to 11.41 trillion yuan [19]. 3.3.2 Changes in Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio - As of October 31, 2025, compared with October 27, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.24 pct to 106.85% [20]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From October 27 to October 31, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was 6.70 trillion yuan. The average overnight turnover was about 5.75 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover ratio was 85.95% [24][27]. 3.3.4 Operation of Inter - bank Funding - Bank funds for lending first increased and then decreased. As of October 31, the net lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.16 trillion yuan, and the net borrowing of joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was 0.36 trillion yuan. The net lending of the banking system was 3.80 trillion yuan [28]. - The daily lending amount of banks first increased and then decreased. As of October 31, the daily lending amount of large banks and policy banks was 3.17 trillion yuan, and that of small and medium - sized banks was - 0.45 trillion yuan [30]. - As of October 31, DR001 was 1.3184%, DR007 was 1.4551%, R001 was 1.4069%, and R007 was 1.4923% [30]. 3.4 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of October 31, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.65 years (de - leveraged), up 0.05 years from October 27; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.71 years, up 0.07 years from October 27 [40]. 3.4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of October 31, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.73 years, up 0.11 years from October 27; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.49 years, up 0.14 years from October 27. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.30 years, up 0.01 years from October 27, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.45 years, up 0.06 years from October 27 [43]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - As of October 31, compared with October 27, the borrowing volume of 10Y CDB bonds showed volatility [48].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per common share increased by 4.5% to $8.41 at quarter end, resulting in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter [9][23] - The debt-to-equity ratio slightly increased to 6.7% from 6.5%, as the company reduced the percentage of preferred stock in its capital structure [10] - The investment portfolio totaled $5.7 billion, consisting of $4.8 billion in agency mortgages and $0.9 billion in agency CMBS [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 13% quarter over quarter, with a focus on 4.5% versus 5.5% coupons [18] - Higher coupon specified pool payouts improved during the quarter, reflecting increased investor demand for prepayment protection [17] - Agency CMBS risk premiums declined quarter over quarter, indicating increased investor demand [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The yield curve steepened, with two-year Treasury yields falling 11 basis points while 30-year yields were down just four basis points [12] - Interest rates declined across the Treasury yield curve, with a notable decrease in interest rate volatility [7][14] - The average unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, while inflation measures remained above the Federal Reserve's target [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains constructive on agency mortgages, expecting investor demand to broaden due to lower interest rate volatility and attractive valuations [11] - The focus on improving the capital structure and reducing the cost of capital continues, with a commitment to maximizing shareholder returns [24] - The company is monitoring the agency CMBS sector for opportunities to increase allocation as relative value becomes attractive [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management views near-term risks as balanced, with expectations for further easing of monetary policy to support agency mortgages in the long term [24] - The company anticipates that changes to bank regulatory capital rules will increase investor demand for agency mortgages and agency CMBS [11] - The economic environment is characterized by strong corporate earnings and improved growth, despite persistent inflation [5][6] Other Important Information - The company raised $36 million by issuing common stock through its ATM program, maintaining a disciplined approach to benefit existing shareholders [10] - The company retained a sizable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $423 million [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in hedge portfolio and net duration exposure - Management indicated a slight reduction in steepener positions and a preference for moving hedges into the front end of the curve, with model duration running slightly long [26][27] Question: Returns on marginal capital deployment relative to dividend level - Levered gross returns were in the upper teens, with net returns in the mid-teens, consistent with the dividend to book yield [30][31] Question: Appetite for changing capital structure with buybacks and common issuance - Management noted that preferred buybacks had minimal impact on capital structure, and they are currently not buying back shares but will consider it if conditions are favorable [35][36] Question: Relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS - Agency RMBS continues to provide a more attractive return on equity compared to agency CMBS, which is more aligned with lower coupon agency RMBS [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, bonds, and international markets, highlighting the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and economic growth [1][12][36]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Interest Rates - The primary long-term factor affecting interest rates is the economic growth rate. A slowdown in economic growth typically leads to lower interest rates [4][5]. - In the short term, inflation rates also significantly influence interest rates. High inflation often necessitates higher interest rates to control it [6][7]. Group 2: Historical Inflation Trends - U.S. stock market inflation rates surged from around 0% in 2020 to a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement the most significant interest rate hikes in the last 20 years [9][10]. - As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. stock market has decreased to approximately 3% [10]. Group 3: Recent Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve initiated a new cycle of interest rate cuts in September 2024, with the first cut occurring in October 2025 [12][36]. - Following the initiation of the rate cut cycle, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant gains, ranking among the top globally [13]. Group 4: Impact of Interest Rates on Asset Prices - Higher interest rates generally exert downward pressure on asset prices, while lower rates can lead to price increases across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and real estate [15]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a 22.41% increase, while the global stock market rose by 23.01% since the onset of the rate cut cycle [19]. Group 5: Effects on Different Markets - The decline in U.S. interest rates has led to a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, contributing to the appreciation of the yuan [25]. - The changes in U.S. interest rates also affect the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with the recent rate cuts leading to increased capital inflows into these markets [29][30]. Group 6: Common Questions and Answers - The benefits of interest rate cuts are often reflected in the market weeks before the actual announcement, as investors anticipate the changes [32]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to significant fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and interest payments [36][38].