债券策略周报 20260301 3 月债市投资策略 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 债市观点及组合策略推荐 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 展望 3 月债市，从利率节奏来看重点关注两个问题：1.中东冲突带来的大类资产 联动情况；2.国内货币政策是否有宽松的迹象。 从当前债券利率定价来看，目前 10 年国债利率略低于 1.8%，市场进一步做多意 愿不强（这一点可以从节后止盈情绪升温导致利率回升看出），不过地缘风险导致 的风险偏好下降确实有较大概率使得近期利率脉冲下行，但也需要观察权益下跌 情况，如果权益下跌后立即企稳，债券利率的下行空间也不大，预计 10 年国债活 跃券低位在 1.75%左右；而后续则需要关注大宗商品是否上涨带来通胀预期进一 步升温，从而带动利率上行。另外，国内债券利率下行的另一个制约在于降息预 期不高，如果两会后市场降息预期有所抬升，则 10 年国债利率有明显的交易机 会。 因此，从利率 ...

2026年2月24日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR已连续六个月保持稳定。在此背景 下，合肥地区首套房及二套房5年期以上新发放商业贷款利率，继续维持在历史低位的3.0%（LPR-50BP）。 PART.01 内外温差：美联储频降息，国内利率缘何"独善其身"？ 与国内政策利率的静默形成鲜明对比的是，大洋彼岸的美联储自2025年下半年起已开启了一轮降息周期。回顾2025年，美联储累计实施了三次降息，累计 下调幅度高达75个基点： 首次降息 (2025.09.17): 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%。 二次降息 (2025.10.30): 再次下调25个基点，至3.75%-4.00%。 三次降息 (2025.12.11): 继续下调25个基点，至3.50%-3.75%。 从历史经验看，中美利率往往呈现出一定的联动性，美联储的降息操作通常会为国内货币政策打开更多空间，牵引国内利率同步下行。然而，在本轮周期 中，尽管外部宽松信号明确，国内政策利率却展现出极强的战略定力，并未盲目跟随。这种"内外温差"局面的形成，体现了 ...

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 24 日 春节假期综述：海外波动难撼债市修复趋势 团队成员 投资要点： 益 专 题 1 月中旬以来债券市场修复的重要因素在于大行对于长债的持续净买 入。从 1 月信贷收支表看，大行与中小行新增信贷均低于去年同期，但存 款增速均有所回升，且大行的升幅更大，在此背景下大行配置债券的规模 也明显上升，显示在央行流动性宽松、大行负债相对充裕、但信贷需求整 体偏弱的环境下，大行配置债券的意愿有所提升。但相较于往年银行一般 都在年初配置短债不同，今年大行在二级市场增持长债是非常罕见的现象， 这一方面说明市场前期担忧的利率风险指标问题并未对大行的实际投资带 来显著影响，另一方面可能也部分反映了央行态度的变化。 Q4 货政报告对稳增长的诉求增强，由于信贷需求偏弱，货币政策对宽 松副作用的担忧也明显减弱。尽管降准降息可能需要根据整体政策部署综 合，但在稳增长的基调下预计央行在降息前仍将维持宽松的流动性环境， 同时也有望加大对国债的买入力度以配合财政。我们原本预计，在 10 年期 国债收益率突破 1.8%后，大行对 7-10 年国债的净买入力度可能下降，甚至 阶段性的转为净卖出， ...

新华财经纽约2月23日电（记者徐静） 纽约商品交易所交投最活跃的4月黄金期货23日上涨117.9美元， 收于每盎司5247.9美元，涨幅为2.30%。 分析认为，美国新的关税政策给市场带来了新的不确定性，推动避险需求走高，拉动黄金和白银价格大 幅上涨。其中黄金创下三周新高，白银创下两周新高。此外，市场继续对美伊紧张局势感到不安，也推 动了对贵金属的买盘需求。 此外，在经济数据方面，当日公布的2025年12月美国工厂订单报告显示，该数据环比下降0.7%，低于 市场预期的环比增长0.2%。报告符合美国货币政策将进一步宽松的预期。报告发布后，美元指数走 弱，进一步推动了金银价格强劲上涨。 在瑞银分析师看来，考虑到美联储的宽松利率路径和整体市场需求的上升，到6月份，每盎司黄金的价 格可能会再上涨1000美元。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨343美分，收于每盎司88美元，涨幅为4.06%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 消息面上，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，他将立即把全球10%的关税提高到15%。此前， 美国最高法院裁定特朗普动用紧急权力法征收关税的行为违法。特朗普24日在华盛顿向国会发表国情咨 文时将接受议员 ...

《肯尼亚时报》报道，肯尼亚央行2月10日宣布，将基准贷款利率下调25个基 点至8.75%，这是自2024年8月以来连续第十次下调基准利率。此次下调标志着 肯货币政策持续向更加宽松的方向转变，旨在支持信贷增长和经济活动。肯央 行表示，此举将刺激银行向私营部门借贷和支持经济活动，并可保障通胀预期 和汇率的持续稳定。 （原标题：肯央行连续十次下调基准利率） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

本周英镑兑美元出现反弹，兑欧元亦收复部分失地。此前的跌势由斯塔默团队一名高级成员辞职触发，政治不确定性再度浮出水面。鉴于英镑年 内涨幅主要来自美元走弱的被动支撑，多家机构认为，通过欧元兑英镑表达对英国风险敞口，是当前更具效率的交易方式。 花旗集团策略师警告，英镑面临的最大考验将在未来两个月到来。届时英国政局不确定性与英国央行降息预期将形成共振，对英镑构成显著下行 压力。 该行策略师Daniel Tobon表示，尽管市场过去一周已"初步感知"这两大风险，但真正的下行风险窗口将于5月初地方选举前夕开启。民调显示，首 相斯塔默所在党派或面临压力，其领导地位已受动摇，政治不确定性料进一步升温。 与此同时，英国央行预计将在未来数月重启降息。上周该行以出人意料的微弱优势决定维持利率不变，但市场普遍认为宽松周期尚未终结。 政治与货币政策风险交织 花旗策略师Daniel Tobon指出，政治不确定性与货币政策宽松是当前做空英镑的两大核心逻辑，而这两大主题将在4月至5月间形成交汇，届时英镑 将迎来"更大幅度的反应"。他称： "现在认真押注这些情景还为时过早，4月和5月是这些主题汇聚的时刻，那才是我们想要参与的窗口。" 期权市场 ...

格隆汇2月11日｜路透调查：101名受访经济学家中有60人认为，美联储将在6月底前将联邦基金利率下 调25个基点至3.25%-3.50%的区间（1月份调查无共识）。53位受访经济学家中49人认为，主要风险在于 凯文·沃什领导下的美联储可能将货币政策设定得过为宽松。57受访位经济学家中，有41位对鲍威尔任 期结束后美联储独立性受到削弱的情况表示担忧。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 【中金固收·利率】人民币升值环境下的流动性渐进宽松——货币市场2025年回顾与2026年展望 中金固定收益研究 摘要 回顾来看，2025年资金面先紧后松，1-2月政府债券供给抬升叠加稳汇率等压力下，银行超储水位下 降，银行间流动性边际趋紧，资金利率中枢回升，直至2月下旬资金紧张压力有所缓解；3月以来，美国 关税等政策不确定性扰动增多，美元信用遭遇挑战，美元趋势回落，同时为托底国内经济修复，我国央 行货币政策宽松加码，资金利率转向下行，5月降准降息落地，进一步明确央行宽松政策立场，此后银 行间流动性持续维持充裕，资金利率中枢逐步向政策利率中枢靠拢，10月底央行宣布重启国债买卖操 作，叠加年末企业结汇需求抬升，银行超储水位继续回暖，也带动了资金利率中枢的进一步下行。 展望2026年，我们预计全年货币市场流动性或继续维持充裕，在稳汇率、稳通胀目标影响下，我国央行 货币政策可能进一步加大放松力度，同时在企业结汇需求集中释放下，银行流动性充裕也可能推动包括 存单等在内的资金利率中枢进一步下行。首先，当前人民币汇率转向升值通道，一定程度上需要央行货 币政策进一步放松来缓解 ...