Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, precious metals, and various commodity futures markets are affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with different trends and investment suggestions. [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.42%, 0.09%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR on March 20, 2026, were 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The US is considering the next - stage plan and possible peace talks with Iran. The market is expected to face pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. With weak domestic economic recovery momentum, low corporate profit growth, and low asset valuation, the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [8][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell 2.15% and 2.00% respectively. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The short - term Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment, while the medium - term price is determined by supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still in a downward trend, but the supply pressure has eased. The price may rebound but with limited space. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, and the demand is expected to expand after the end of key meetings, but the supply is abundant. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term, and investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is in a volatile pattern, and investors can look for low - position buy opportunities. [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron rose 3.46% and 1.58% respectively. The cost is in a narrow - range upward trend, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities. [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the easing of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The US approved the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil products. The price may be supported, but due to the change in the war situation, it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [21][22] Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets in Hangzhou and Yuyao declined. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure increased, the industry's operating rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand increased slightly. It is necessary to operate with caution due to geopolitical influence, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [24] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 1.82%. The current price is mainly supported by cost and is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, crude oil price, and tire export orders. [26][28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber fell. The market is in a game between the cost of synthetic rubber pushed up by the Middle - East conflict and the approaching domestic tapping season and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile trend. [29][30] PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell during the day and rose at night. The market is in a game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile trend, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. [31][33] Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell. The current contradiction lies between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend, but the downside is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season. [34][35] PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fluctuated. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is gradually recovering. Affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price may be volatile and may have a correction risk. It is necessary to operate with caution. [36][37] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fluctuated. The processing fee has adjusted, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the change in the cost end. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is advisable to operate with caution. [38] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, the demand from downstream increased, and the price is expected to be stronger than other polyester varieties in the short - term. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the Strait and the progress of the spring inspection. [39][40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fluctuated. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the cost end. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress. [41] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract fell sharply. The cost support weakened, the demand from downstream is weak, and due to the changeable Middle - East situation, the raw material price may fluctuate greatly. It is advisable to participate with caution. [42][43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply remains high, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream is weak. The price is expected to be in a short - term volatile adjustment. [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production lines decreased, the inventory decreased slowly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the cost pressure remains. The price is expected to be volatile. [46] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is good, and the price of 50% caustic soda may rise. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders. [47][48] Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply increased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price of pulp is expected to be supported. The risk of coniferous pulp fluctuation is relatively high, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable. [49][50] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. Affected by the US - Iran conflict and resource nationalism in Africa, the supply of lithium ore may be in a tight balance, the demand from downstream is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase. [51] Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was almost eliminated, and the dollar index rose. The supply of copper is tight, the demand is structurally growing, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [52][53] Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. Alumina is in a cost - driven rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to the game between strong expectation and weak reality. The price of alumina may be in a volatile adjustment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [54][55] Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and affected by the Middle - East situation and the strong dollar, the price is expected to be under pressure. [56][57] Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The supply of lead is supported in the short - term, the demand is weak, and affected by the macro pressure on the non - ferrous sector, the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend. [58][59] Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of tin is slightly eased, the demand is supported by the emerging field, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have support below, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation. [60] Nickel - Last trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of nickel ore may be tight, the cost may rise, the demand from downstream is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events. [61][62] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose slightly. Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the dollar is rising, which suppresses the price of soybeans. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict. [63][64] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on March 20 and 23, and will resume trading on March 24. The export volume of palm oil products increased from March 1 - 20, and the domestic import volume increased. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the past 7 years. It is advisable to consider reducing or closing long positions. [65][66] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is oscillating near the key support level. The domestic import volume of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal is large. The inventory of rapeseed is at a low level in the past 7 years, the inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a medium level. It is advisable to wait and see. [67] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fell, and the overseas cotton market was weak. The domestic cotton import volume increased in 2026, and the issuance of the sliding - scale quota increased and was advanced, which is a short - term negative factor. However, the global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new year, and the medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong. [68][70] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zheng sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar rose. The domestic sugar import volume increased, the production is expected to increase, and the industrial inventory is higher. The increase in oil price will change the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, and the medium - and long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise. [71][73] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures were strong. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is in full swing, the demand in the sales area is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to maintain a stable - to - strong trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - removal rate and the weather during the flowering period. [74][76] Hogs - Last trading day, the main contract of hogs fell. The supply of hogs is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. The government has started the purchase - storage mechanism, but the support is insufficient. It is advisable to hold short positions. [77] Eggs - Last trading day, the main contract of eggs rose. The cost of eggs is rising, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the past 10 years, and the supply in March is expected to remain high. It is advisable to gradually take profit on short positions in the far - month contracts. [78][79] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The northern port inventory is low, the demand from feed enterprises is increasing, and the price is strong. The South American corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the dollar is rising, which brings pressure. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the demand for corn starch is slightly improving. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of the far - month out - of - the - money put option when the price rises sharply. [80][82] Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose. The shipment of New Zealand logs to China increased, the downstream demand improved, and the terminal consumption is polarized. The cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to be in a high - level volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas quotation, shipment dynamics, and downstream consumption. [83][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, and different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [6]. - For different commodities, there are different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be bullish, some bearish, and some in a state of shock [43][44][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On March 17, the central bank carried out 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.5 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and focus on seven major tasks [5]. - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure in the future market, and caution is recommended [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.71%, 0.30%, - 2.05%, and - 2.02% respectively [8]. - **Economic Data**: From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.1% year - on - year [8]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell by 0.19%, and the silver main contract rose by 0.03% [10]. - **Driving Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment and the actions of central banks support the value of precious metals. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase [10]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [12]. - **Outlook**: The price may rebound, but the space may be limited. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder were reported [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand may increase, and the supply has increased in the first two months of this year. The inventory is at a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: The demand may have a limited positive effect. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage positions [15]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand may increase [15]. - **Outlook**: The futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage positions [16]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose by 0.84%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose by 0.51% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak, with an overall surplus pressure [17][18]. - **Outlook**: After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity of closing long positions [18]. 3.8 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [19]. - **Market News**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. The Iran - Ukraine situation is tense [19]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The war between the US and Iran is accelerating, and the global crude oil supply shortage looms. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [20][21]. 3.9 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the contraction trend is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate has decreased. In the long term, the import volume may decrease in April, but new production capacity plans are intensive. The demand shows the characteristics of "increasing start - up but cautious procurement" [21]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long [22]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell by 1.62% [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased due to the Middle East conflict. Some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance. The supply is high - load operation, and the demand is in the recovery stage but affected by the Middle East conflict. The inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion [23][24]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [25]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell by 0.21%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose by 0.30% [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in the low - production season, and the demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. The inventory is still accumulating, but the accumulation rate may slow down [26]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock, supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short term, and the inventory depletion and demand recovery in the medium term need to be concerned [26]. 3.12 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose by 0.73% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost is strongly supported in the short term, and the price is in a strong - side shock. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, the demand is gradually starting in spring but at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating [27][28]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell by 1.73% [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost is supported in the short term, but there are still policy regulation and production capacity release pressures. The supply is stable, the demand is concentrated, and the inventory is decreasing [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [31]. 3.14 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell by 1.9% [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load has decreased, the supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed [32]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. The price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to oil price changes and the situation [32]. 3.15 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell by 1.26% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted, the supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The cost is affected by the Middle East conflict [33]. - **Outlook**: The PTA price is still anchored to the cost. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to the Iran - US conflict and oil price changes [33]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell by 1.27% [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall开工 load has decreased, the import is expected to decrease, and the inventory has a de - stocking expectation. The demand is increasing [34]. - **Outlook**: The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring - maintenance rhythm [34]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell by 0.93% [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is gradually increasing, the terminal demand is recovering, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation [35]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber still trades based on the cost logic. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [35]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell by 1.13% [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to shrink, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the cost is supported [36]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [36]. 3.19 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production is stable, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. The export advantage has decreased [37]. - **Outlook**: There is no significant support signal in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment fluctuates [37]. 3.20 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production line is shrinking, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [38]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals support is limited, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the position should be controlled. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [38]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.59% [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the price has different trends in different regions. The long - term blockade of the Strait may affect the production of overseas chlorine - alkali equipment and increase China's export advantage [39][40]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [40]. 3.22 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% [41]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic production will decrease due to maintenance, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [41]. - **Outlook**: The price of softwood pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of hardwood pulp is relatively stable. The downstream demand recovers slowly [42]. 3.23 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose by 0.39% to 155320 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [43]. - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of relevant events [43]. 3.24 Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% [44]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - level pressure is significant, the supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand has a certain support [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a weak - side shock [46]. 3.25 Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%, and the alumina main contract rose by 1.59% [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure of alumina is high, the cost is supported, the supply in the Middle East is tightened, and the domestic demand is recovering [47]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to run strongly [48]. 3.26 Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% [49]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the inventory is increasing [49][50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a pressured shock [51]. 3.27 Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16670 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead is increasing, the recovery of secondary lead is slow, the demand is affected by geopolitical risks, and the inventory is increasing [52]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a pressured adjustment [53]. 3.28 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 2.34% to 370920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply tightness has eased, the demand has a complex picture, and the inventory is decreasing [54]. - **Outlook**: The price has support below, but the short - term commodity price may fluctuate greatly. Pay attention to risk control [54]. 3.29 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell by 0.95% to 135850 yuan/ton [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, the cost is rising, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [55]. - **Outlook**: The primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Pay attention to relevant policies and macro - events [55]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell by 0.42%, and the soybean oil main contract fell by 0.78% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, the oil factory's soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal has different trends [56]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.31 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil fell by more than 1%, ending a four - day rise [58]. - **

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and price trend forecasts for multiple commodities, including coal, methanol, iron ore, etc., based on their respective supply - demand situations, market factors, and geopolitical influences [1][2][4] - The prices of most commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with some showing a tendency to be slightly stronger, while others may face downward pressure or remain at the bottom [1][2][5] Summary by Commodity Energy and Minerals - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is restricted, and the high import of Mongolian coal creates pressure on the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [1] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory is basically stable. With the resumption of some downstream industries after the festival and the potential impact of the conflict on Iranian supply, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [2] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is recovering but still has disturbance expectations, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short - term. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [4] - **Copper**: The supply risk of sulfur is affecting the copper market. The supply of African copper mines may face cost increases and production slowdowns. With the recovery of domestic demand, the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile [8] - **Alumina**: The new project will increase the global supply in the long - term, but has little short - term impact. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue to be volatile [8] - **Nickel**: The tightening of Indonesian quotas is leading to a raw material shortage, which will be compensated by imports from the Philippines. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the risk of raw material shortage may intensify in the second quarter [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory at the East China main port is relatively high, but it is expected to decline. The supply is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [10] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry is stable with rising inventory. The domestic soda ash market is volatile, with high - level inventory and weak demand. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [11] Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The pig price is stable and slightly weak in the short - term, with continuous supply and poor demand. The medium - term futures price has limited downward space, with near - month contracts at the bottom and far - month contracts slightly stronger [6] - **Palm Oil**: India's cancellation of soybean oil orders is expected to increase palm oil imports, and the B50 plan in Indonesia is attracting attention. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and the price is likely to rise [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The lower limit of the contract is supported by the high price of US soybeans. The domestic oil mill inventory is decreasing, but the downstream inventory is sufficient. The price has broken through the shock range, and low - buying is recommended [7] Financial Products - **Ten - year Treasury Bond**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. During the Two Sessions, there may be fewer incremental policies. The investment opportunity of the ten - year bond market is greater than that of the thirty - year, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a triangular shock convergence [11] - **Gold**: The Middle East conflict is escalating, which pushes up inflation expectations and weakens the prospect of interest rate cuts, suppressing the gold price. However, the safe - haven sentiment limits the downward space, and the medium - term trend is expected to be high - level shock [12] - **Silver**: The US non - farm employment data is lower than expected, which suppresses risk appetite. The inflation expectation is rising, and the short - term downward risk increases. The medium - term trend is expected to be high - level shock [12] Energy - related Products - **Crude Oil**: The military operation is ongoing, and the situation in the Middle East is tense. The long - position of crude oil should be continuously tracked [13] - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is at high risk, and the geopolitical premium is significantly increased. The short - term strategy is to buy on dips [14] - **Asphalt**: The international oil price and the asphalt futures are still in a volatile and slightly stronger state. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the cost support is strong. The long - position should be held [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and investors need to be cautious and pay attention to market fluctuations [6][9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year and 2 - year contracts showing small changes. The central bank conducted 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan. The US February employment data was poor. The central bank governor said that multiple monetary policy tools would be used. The market is expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iran situation may cause significant market fluctuations. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold prices fell and silver prices rose. China's foreign exchange and gold reserves have been increasing. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold. Due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market may fluctuate significantly, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, prices are dominated by supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downward trend continues, and the market is in a demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased. The price lacks upward momentum but the valuation is low. Technically, the short - term trend may be weak. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. During the key meetings, steel mills' production was restricted, suppressing demand. Supply has changed, and port inventories are at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak. Technically, it may test the previous low. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the domestic supply - demand pattern is limited. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, while the demand is weak. For coke, the supply is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mill restrictions. Technically, the medium - term trend may be oscillatory. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak, with an overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward due to the ongoing Middle - East war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The situation in Iran and the reduction of production by Middle - East oil companies support oil prices. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities in the crude oil main contract [22][23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed price increases. The downstream factories are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, and the inventory trend has changed from rising to falling. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. Some devices are planned for maintenance in March. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the recovery stage. The inventory is in the post - festival accumulation cycle. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber and 20 - rubber main contracts rose. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and the demand from tire enterprises is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the pre - festival accumulation trend. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [32][33][34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose and hit the daily limit at night. The core driver is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The supply has increased, and the demand is at a low level. The cost is under pressure, and the inventory is in the accumulation state. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [35][36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The core driver is the geopolitical conflict and the international supply - demand mismatch. Iran's factory shutdowns and the impact on the shipping of fertilizers in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp increase in international prices. China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state, and in the long - term, the pattern is loose [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The domestic and Asian PX loads decreased. The downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. The cost is supported by the increase in crude oil prices. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage, and the price center may move up [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The PTA processing fee increased. The supply has adjusted, and the demand from the polyester industry is increasing. The cost is supported by the increase in crude oil and PX prices. The price is expected to rise with PX and oil prices. It is recommended to operate at low levels and pay attention to risk control [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the inventory increased. The demand from the downstream polyester industry is increasing. The cost is supported by the geopolitical situation, and the price may oscillate upward, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [41][42][43]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The loom load is slightly increasing. The low inventory and strong cost provide support. The market is mainly trading on the cost - end logic [44]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The processing fee has adjusted. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from the downstream beverage industry is increasing. The cost is strongly supported. The market is expected to follow the cost - end trend and be in a strong - oscillatory state [45][46]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The production is stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. Some enterprises are planned for maintenance. The price may have short - term fluctuations due to the energy - related logic, but the fundamental support is lacking [47][48]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The industry is in the capacity - reduction stage, and the inventory is increasing. The demand recovery is slow. The cost and profit pressure may force the exit of old - fashioned production capacity. It is necessary to pay attention to the cold - repair of production lines and other factors [49][50]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is in the recovery stage. The sharp rise in the price is related to the impact of the Middle - East situation on PVC production. It is necessary to be vigilant against the "roller - coaster" market risk [51][52]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend. The supply is relatively stable, and the price is oscillating. The supply - side news has limited impact, and the downstream demand has not followed up. The inventory pressure suppresses the pulp price [53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium ore is in a tight - balance state, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the employment market in the US is weak. The supply of electrolytic copper is limited, and the demand is seasonally improving. The copper price is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts rose. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be in a strong - running state [58][59][60]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The production of refined zinc is increasing, and the import is in a net inflow state. The downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately. The supply recovery is faster than the demand, and the zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract was flat. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The supply - demand mismatch supports the lead price, and it is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64][65]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose slightly. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo may affect the price. The supply situation has improved, and the demand has a complex pattern. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [66]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. The US - Iran conflict may affect the price. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine is expected to be significantly reduced, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The market is in an oversupply state [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The soybean import is slowing down, and the oil - mill profit is low. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is improving. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and wait and see for soybean oil after the price leaves the low - cost range [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and the export has declined. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider positive - spread opportunities [70][71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The Middle - East conflict has an impact on the vegetable - oil market. China has adjusted the tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to have a bullish view on rapeseed oil [73][74]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated, and the external market rose slightly. The new - year global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the consumption is expected to increase. The domestic cotton inventory is at a high level, and the future planting area is expected to decrease. The medium - and long - term cotton price is expected to be strong [76][77]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and the external market rose. India has adjusted its sugar production forecast. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of crude oil price increases on the overall commodity market [78][79][80]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures declined. The spot market is stable, and it is in the consumption off - season. The inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong [81][82][83]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract rose. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. The number of breeding sows is still at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [84][85]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg production is at a high level, and the breeding profit is low. The egg supply in March is expected to remain high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contracts [86]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The North - port corn inventory is low, and the demand for corn ethanol is expected to increase. The domestic corn production and demand are basically balanced, and the import is expected to remain low. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market [87][88]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The wood transportation is affected by the geopolitical conflict, and the cost has increased. The supply and demand have not improved significantly. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is necessary to pay attention to the external price, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [89][90].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][6] Core Insights - The economic theme meeting of the "Two Sessions" has been held, with a focus on the continuous reduction of risks in key areas [2][4] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, providing a favorable liquidity environment for banks, with an emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3][30] - The credit structure continues to optimize, focusing on key support directions such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital sectors, with loans in these areas maintaining double-digit growth [3][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The banking index rose by 1.64% during the period from March 2 to March 8, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.71 percentage points [8] - The top-performing banks included Chongqing Bank (+12.46%), Chengdu Bank (+4.76%), Agricultural Bank (+4.69%), Construction Bank (+4.42%), and Transportation Bank (+3.36%) [8] Funding Market - The funding environment is relatively loose, with the central bank's net withdrawal of 15,634 million yuan [18] - The average issuance rates for 1-year interbank certificates of deposit for major banks are 1.57%, with a slight decrease compared to previous values [20] Industry and Company Dynamics - The "Two Sessions" economic theme meeting has highlighted the ongoing reduction of risks in key areas, with significant progress in resolving financing platform debt risks, with a reduction of over 70% in both the number of platforms and debt scale compared to early 2023 [4][31] - The focus on balancing risk and return in credit policies is emphasized, with banks being encouraged to avoid blind expansion and maintain a new balance among volume, price, and quality [5][31] Investment Recommendations - In the context of weak economic recovery, banks are advised to focus on balancing risk and return, which will help alleviate margin pressure and improve asset quality [6][33] - High dividend yield banks are highlighted as having significant allocation value, with recommendations for state-owned large and medium-sized banks, as well as regionally strong banks [6][33]

Group 1 - The report highlights two key issues to focus on in March's bond market: the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on asset correlations and the potential for easing in domestic monetary policy [7][36][37] - Current pricing indicates that the 10-year government bond yield is slightly below 1.8%, with limited market enthusiasm for further buying, as evidenced by profit-taking sentiments after the holiday leading to a rise in yields [7][36] - The report anticipates that geopolitical risks may lead to a temporary decline in bond yields, with a low point expected around 1.75% for the 10-year government bond [7][36][37] Group 2 - Investment opportunities in bonds include high-odds trading positions in 10-year government bonds, 30-year active government bonds, and 50-year government bonds, which are expected to perform well if the bond market does not face significant adjustment pressure [12][37] - Credit bonds are highlighted for their demand potential, particularly with an upcoming opening period for certain bond funds, which may increase the allocation demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [12][37] - Short-term bonds are expected to remain stable while waiting for potential easing opportunities, as short-end rates are low and the adjustment pressure is minimal [12][37] Group 3 - The report outlines six strategies for bond selection, including focusing on high-frequency trading options and long-end government bonds, as well as specific recommendations for various bond codes [15][37] - For floating rate bonds, attention is drawn to specific bonds that present low risk but also limited excess returns, making them attractive for money market funds [15][37] - The report notes that the current market conditions suggest a cautious approach to bond trading, with a focus on managing the timing of trades effectively [16][37] Group 4 - The bond market's weekly review indicates a slight increase in bond yields, primarily driven by strong performance in equities post-holiday and profit-taking sentiments among bond investors [18][36] - The report provides a comparative analysis of bond valuations against other asset classes, indicating that bond yields are relatively low compared to some equity sectors and commodities [26][36] - The report's predictive models suggest a cautious outlook for the bond market, with a shift to a bearish stance in the primary model due to recent trading patterns [23][36]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a continued low interest rate environment for new commercial loans in Hefei [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, reflecting a stable monetary policy stance [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle since the second half of 2025, with a total reduction of 75 basis points across three cuts [4][5][6] - Despite external easing signals from the U.S., domestic interest rates in China have not followed suit, showcasing a strong strategic determination from the central bank [6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Signals - Recent high-level meetings and policy statements indicate a commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy [7][8][9] - The central bank's reports emphasize the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on maintaining financial stability and reasonable growth in financial aggregates [9][11] - The central bank has already lowered the rates of various structural monetary policy tools, indicating a proactive approach to support the economy [15] Group 3: Future Expectations - Market consensus suggests a strong likelihood of further monetary easing in 2026, with predictions of two rate cuts totaling 20-30 basis points [16] - Major international investment banks forecast a combination of a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut, potentially lowering the 5-year LPR to around 3.4% [17] - The external environment, including the Fed's rate cuts, and the need for stable financial support for economic recovery, create a conducive atmosphere for domestic rate cuts [18] Group 4: Inflation and Banking Considerations - A low inflation environment provides a realistic basis for potential rate cuts, with room for actual rates to decline further [19] - However, banks' net interest margins are at historically low levels, and exchange rate stability remains a critical consideration, suggesting that any rate cuts may be gradual rather than abrupt [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repair trend of the domestic bond market before the Spring Festival is difficult to be shaken by overseas fluctuations, and it is expected to continue the strong - oscillating trend from after the festival to before the Two Sessions. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and seize the opportunity of long - term interest rate repair [2][49] - Although overseas risk preference changes may cause certain disturbances to the bond market, they will not change the overall market trend [4] - If the 10 - year Treasury bond can stabilize below 1.8%, the supplementary rise market of 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds is still worth looking forward to [3][30] - The peak of government bond supply in Q1 may have passed [4][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic bond market continued to repair, with most credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads converging. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through 1.8% and finally stabilized around 1.78%, and the long - term secondary - tier perpetual bonds declined more [2][14] - Since mid - January, the continuous net purchase of long - term bonds by large banks has been an important factor in the bond market repair. In January, the new credit of large and small and medium - sized banks was lower than the same period last year, but the deposit growth rate increased, especially for large banks. Large banks increased their bond investment, especially long - term bonds, which is a rare phenomenon [2][15][21] - The Q4 monetary policy report shows that the central bank's demand for stable growth has increased, and its concern about the side effects of easing has weakened. It is expected that the central bank will maintain a loose liquidity environment and increase the purchase of Treasury bonds [3][27] 3.2 Overseas Key Events 3.2.1 US IEEPA Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs implemented under IEEPA were unconstitutional. Trump announced a 10% tariff on almost all US imports under Article 122, which was later raised to 15%. The new tariff adjustment will change the actual tax rates of some economies, and Trump hopes that trading partners will continue to fulfill their commitments [53][54] - After the tariff ruling, the market showed a combination of rising gold prices, rebounding US stocks, falling US dollars, and slightly rising US bond yields. However, this may be a short - term reaction, and the increase in global risk appetite may not last long [57] 3.2.2 The Second Round of Negotiations between the US and Iran Reached a Consensus, but the Military Confrontation Continued to Escalate - On February 17, the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran reached a consensus on the procedure and framework, but there were still differences on issues such as uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional agents. The two sides agreed to start the third - round negotiations on February 26 [58] - Meanwhile, the military confrontation between the two sides continued to escalate. Trump issued an ultimatum, and the US assembled a large - scale air force in the Middle East. Iran conducted live - fire exercises and partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant increase in oil prices during the Spring Festival. However, these military threats may be extreme pressure before the next round of negotiations, and the final result remains to be seen [59][62] 3.3 Domestic Long - Holiday Data - Due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel willingness increased. The cross - regional passenger flow during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 5.5%, and the passenger flow has reached a record high for three consecutive days since the 19th. The travel volume of various transportation modes has increased to varying degrees [63] - The increase in travel willingness has improved consumption activities. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% in the first four days of the holiday, and the turnover of 78 business districts increased by 4.8%. However, the per - capita consumption amount in Hainan's duty - free shopping decreased, indicating that residents' consumption ability is still restricted [71] - The box office of the 2026 Spring Festival film season was at a low level in recent years, which may be related to the increase in travel demand and the lack of high - profile films. The price of Feitian Moutai was relatively stable during the Spring Festival [72][75] 3.4 Overseas Data - The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers. Most participants believed that the downward risk of the labor market had eased, but inflation was more persistent, and some even discussed the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's neutral expectation for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026 remains at 2 times [77] - Affected by the US government shutdown, the GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2025 was lower than expected, but the impact may be short - term, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 of 2026 is expected to rebound technically [77][79] - Japan's core CPI in January fell to 2%, but the CPI excluding fresh food and fuel was still above the target. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the middle of the year [81] - The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan rebounded, while that in the US declined. The service PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan increased slightly, while those in the US and the UK decreased slightly [83][85] 3.5 Major Asset Classes - **Stock Market**: During the Spring Festival, US stocks rose slightly, South Korean and European stocks strengthened, the Japanese stock market oscillated, and the Hang Seng Index recovered its previous losses on Monday after adjusting on Friday [87] - **Bond Market**: During the Spring Festival, the US bond interest rate rose slightly, the bond yields in the Eurozone declined overall, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond interest rate declined significantly due to the significant decline in inflation in January [92] - **Exchange Rate**: During the Spring Festival, the US dollar index rebounded, the Australian dollar was strong, the offshore RMB and the South Korean won maintained resilience, and most developed - economy currencies depreciated against the US dollar [99] - **Commodities**: The conflict between the US and Iran and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories led to an increase in oil prices. Precious metals were linked to risk assets and rose significantly after the IEEPA was ruled unconstitutional on Friday [104]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in gold and silver prices due to rising market uncertainties stemming from new U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran situation [1] - On February 23, April gold futures rose by $117.9, closing at $5247.9 per ounce, marking a 2.30% increase, while silver futures for March delivery increased by 343 cents, closing at $88 per ounce, a 4.06% rise [1][3] - The U.S. President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which has led to market speculation about potential legal challenges and further uncertainties in trade agreements, particularly with the EU and India [1] Group 2 - UBS analysts predict that due to the Federal Reserve's accommodative interest rate path and rising overall market demand, gold prices could potentially increase by $1000 per ounce by June [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Kenya has reduced the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 8.75%, marking the tenth consecutive reduction since August 2024, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy aimed at supporting credit growth and economic activity [1] Group 1 - The reduction in the benchmark rate is intended to stimulate bank lending to the private sector [1] - The Central Bank aims to ensure the stability of inflation expectations and exchange rates through this monetary policy adjustment [1] - The ongoing trend of rate cuts reflects a commitment to fostering economic growth in Kenya [1]