该行认为，贵金属的周期性投资需求尚未见顶，因美国货币政策短期内或转向宽松，而长期通胀预期脱 锚的风险可能持续存在。另一方面，在新的宏观秩序下，实体黄金的独特配置价值，以及白银作为战略 资源的属性将日益突出，将为全球央行买金、私人实物投资及区域性库存囤积提供结构性支持。 中金发布研报称，有别于过去3年，这轮贵金属升势主要由黄金周期性需求所带动，同时白银价格升幅 超越黄金。展望2026年，该行认为周期性需求及结构性趋势有望持续推动金银价格延续上行趋势。基准 情境下，该行料2026年COMEX黄金价格将升至每盎司4,500美元，白银价格升至每盎司55美元，较目前 升势仍有上行空间。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美股整体将小幅震荡下行到12月10-11日的美联储议息会 议，资金从科技切向防御性的医疗的公用事业。此后特朗普预计将提名新任美联储主席候选人，对于货 币政策的交易预期有望转宽松。因此，美股或从12月下半月开始反弹，明年1月1日开始居民减税也将开 启，基本面维度对就业和消费也有一定支撑。行业层面，建议关注：1)美股市场中估值与业绩更为匹配 的科技行业；2)受益于再工业化进程和政策利好的制造业、中上游资源品以及能源基础设施(特别是核 电)；3)财政加码的军工；4)医疗支出削减或利好的互联网诊断；5)降息周期下的金融行业(尤其是银 行)。 事件： 11月20日美股整体高开低走，特别是科技股跌幅明显，纳指100和费城半导体指数分别下跌2.4%和 4.8%。特别是年初至今涨幅显著的部分科技股(超过50%的)，包括美光、AMD、Lam Research、Palantir 等跌幅都超过5%。但在英伟达披露了超预期的三季报以及未来的指引后，中信证券判断隔夜的下跌更 多是由宏观因素驱动的获利盘了结，而非投资者真正的对于AI泡沫破裂的恐慌性抛售所导致。 美国9月新增非农就业数据发布后，美联 ...

从长期视角看，债券应回归配置属性，而在整条收益率曲线上，兼具配置价值与部分交易价值、性价比 最高且最均衡的期限段，便是十年国债。因此简单总结： 我们判断，今年四季度结束后，明年债市整体仍将呈现低波动震荡行情，核心原因在于，过去一段时间 需求持续偏弱，居民收入改善尚未出现明显拐点，换句话说，当前经济结构转型所需时间比市场预期更 长。 转型过程中，结构性需求的支撑仍来自中央政府。财政通过大幅提高赤字率支撑经济需求端，而这一背 景下，必然依赖发行长期限或超长期限政府债。在此背景下，财政部门难以容忍长期或超长期利率大幅 上行，因为这将无形中增加利息支出，因此当前宏观环境下，债券收益率大幅上行的风险较低。而债券 收益率的下行空间，则高度依赖当前广谱利率何时开启新一轮下行，这包括前几年大行与中小行陆续下 调定期存款利率，以及央行层面下调政策利率等动作。今年，央行虽未调整逆回购利率，但对部分未公 开价格的数量招标类货币政策工具（如近期的买断式回购、中期借贷便利MLF），已进行阶段性调 整。因此，这些政策利率明年是否会再次下调，以维持当前相对偏高的风险偏好及偏低的整体融资成 本？这一点明年值得期待。 若给出中性判断，我们认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has shown strong performance, with China Bank's stock price reaching a historical high, driven by rising risk aversion, institutional fund accumulation, and expectations of loose monetary policy [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, the A-share banking sector index rose by 0.63%, with China Bank leading the gains, closing up 3.81% [3][4]. - Other banks such as Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Bank also saw significant increases in their stock prices [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - The recent rise in the banking sector is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to a shift from high-volatility sectors like solar and semiconductors to low-valuation, high-dividend defensive sectors [11]. - The average dividend yield of the banking sector is approximately 6.5%, significantly higher than the 1.80% yield of 10-year government bonds, making it an attractive option for risk-averse funds [11]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks by 8.36 billion shares as of the end of Q3 2025, focusing on major state-owned banks and stable regional banks [11]. - Analysts believe that the combination of monetary policy easing and financial regulation aimed at reducing liability costs will support steady profit recovery for banks [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the banking sector's investment prospects, anticipating that the high dividend theme will continue to resonate in the market [12]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from structural adjustments towards technology finance, green finance, and pension finance, which will enhance long-term growth potential and support valuation recovery [12].

今日周三(11月19日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12091一线上方，今日开盘于11760元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12147元/千克，上涨2.18%，最高触及12162元/千克，最低下探11760元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 贝森特周二晚些时候表示，预计下月可完成遴选程序。"我们将进行另一轮面试，之后白宫方面可能会 在感恩节后立即展开面试，"贝森特表示，"12月中旬，总统将与最终三位候选人会面，有望在圣诞节前 确定结果。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银本周超跌至11700附近，但很快走出上涨，暂时收盘在11950附近，的多单还是继续持有，昨天在低 位还有加仓做多，今天就看一下白银的延续反弹力度，如果能持续走出来，短线看涨至12200，中长线 可以看到12500附近。 尽管亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德等一些官员对通胀表示担忧，或暗示支持维 持利率不变，但瑞银认为，委员会中仍有微弱多数倾向于进一步的宽松政策。 另外美国总统特朗普表示，他心目中接替美联储现任主席鲍威尔的人选已初步确定，但同时指出有人阻 止他撤换这位现任主席。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

周一（11月17日）亚洲时段，美元/日元维持高位震荡，最新美元兑日元汇率报154.7300，涨幅0.12%， 日本经济在第三季度的萎缩程度小于预期，汇价对此反应有限。尽管市场对日本当局干预汇市的担忧对 这一货币对构成阻力，但受美元小幅走强以及日本央行下次加息时机尚存不确定性的影响，美元兑日元 仍获得支撑。 美元/日元技术分析 从技术角度看，美元对日元汇率短线仍维持偏多结构，但上方压力区域清晰。上周五，USD/JPY自 153.60（4小时图100周期均线）强势反弹，并突破154.45–154.50压力带。 日线指标处于健康的多头区域，距离超买区间尚有空间，意味着汇价仍具进一步上行潜能。若美元兑日 元有效突破155.00心理关口，则可能打开上行至155.60甚至156.00的空间。 下行方面，只要154.00支撑稳固，多头结构仍未被破坏；若跌破153.60区间，则可能进一步回落至 153.00。一旦153.00被有效击穿，短线偏向将转向空头，目标或指向152.10区间。 三季度日本GDP环比下降0.4%，年率下降1.8%，尽管跌幅略好于预期，但仍显示经济动力明显不足。 疲弱的数据迫使投资者进一步下调对日本央行加 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 10 月经济数据点评 稳增长的重要性有所上升 10 月，工业增加值当月同比增速和固定资产投资累计同比增速低于万得一致 预期，社零消费当月同比增速好于万得一致预期；后续重点关注固定资产投 资累计同比增速的变化趋势。 相关研究报告 《 中 银 量 化 多 策 略 行 业 轮 动 周 报 – 20251113》20251114 《策略点评》20251113 《2025 年三季度货币政策执行报告学习》 20251112 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 10 月工业增加值同比增长 4.9%，环比上升 0.17%。从行业分类来看，1-10 月采矿业工业增加值累计同比增速 5.6%，制造业累计同比增速 6.6%，公 用事业累计同比增速 ...

2025年10月27日，央行行长表示"目前，债市整体运行良好，我们将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作"。央行 国债买卖的重启明确了货币政策宽松基调的延续，将继续与财政发债协同配合。同时上一轮购买国债的 到期及当前债市较为合理的估值为国债买卖重启提供条件。对债券市场而言，影响整体偏多，债市调整 风险进一步减弱，但预计难以出现像上一轮国债买卖推动收益率大幅下行的情况。 策略上，前期利用国债期货进行空头套保的可适当降低套保比例。我们前期推荐的TS2512合约多单仍 可继续持有，同时可以关注TF合约做多机会。 1 事件回顾 2025年10月27日，央行行长潘功胜在2025金融界论坛年会上表示"目前，债市整体运行良好，我们将恢 复公开市场国债买卖操作"。央行国债买卖重启落地时间略超市场预期，消息公布后债券收益率快速下 行，期债由于当时已收盘，次日开盘四大合约全线跳空高开。 2 事件分析 国债买卖重启的原因及启示 配合财政发力，货币政策宽松基调延续。在9月3日的财政部与中国人民银行联合工作组召开第二次组长 会议，就曾提及"部、行协同配合取得的成效，并就金融市场运行、政府债券发行管理、央行国债买卖 操作和完善离岸人民币国债发行机制 ...

11月12日，在大盘调整、市场普跌的背景下，银行板块逆势走强，成为当日市场的"避风港"。 截至收盘，银行指数（WI.882115）上涨0.46%，显著跑赢下跌0.07%的上证指数和下跌0.36%的深证成 指。农业银行大涨3.49%，工商银行股价创历史新高，中国银行、建设银行、邮储银行等国有大行普遍 跟涨。 进入四季度，银行板块持续上涨，截至12日收盘，该板块累计上涨8.73%。分析人士指出，避险情绪升 温、机构资金加仓与货币政策宽松预期强化，共同推动银行板块走强。 国有大行领涨板块 12日，A股市场整体承压，超3500只个股下跌，沪指勉强站稳4000点。与之形成鲜明对比的是，银行板 块逆势上扬，显示出显著的防御特征。 从个股表现看，农业银行以3.49%的涨幅领涨全板块，股价再创历史新高，市值突破3万亿元；工商银 行上涨0.37%，同样刷新历史收盘价；中国银行上涨1.41%，建设银行上涨0.52%，邮储银行、渝农商行 等个股也表现强劲。 相比之下，部分股份制银行及城商行走势偏弱，招商银行微跌0.07%、浙商银行下跌0.32%，西安银 行、青岛银行、杭州银行跌幅居前。 Wind数据显示，截至12日收盘，银行板块主 ...