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李宁(2331.HK):Q3线下销售波动 电商渠道稳健增长
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 21:07
Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q3 2025 operational performance shows a mixed picture with offline sales declining while e-commerce continues to grow robustly, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, Li Ning's overall revenue decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline channel sales experiencing a high single-digit decline and e-commerce sales growing by a high single-digit percentage [1]. - The wholesale channel saw a significant decline in revenue, with a high single-digit percentage drop year-on-year, while the number of wholesale stores stood at 4,881 by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 61 stores since the beginning of the year [1]. - Direct sales revenue also fell by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with the total number of direct stores at 1,251, which is a net decrease of 46 stores since the start of the year [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Young Segment - E-commerce revenue in Q3 2025 increased by a high single-digit percentage, showing an improvement in growth rate compared to the mid-single-digit percentage increase in Q2 [2]. - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, continued its rapid growth, with 1,480 stores by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 12 stores since the beginning of the year, and is expected to achieve double-digit growth in revenue [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - The inventory-to-sales ratio is projected to be between 5-6 at the end of Q3 2025, which is an increase from previous periods, driven by preparations for upcoming holidays and promotional events [2]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to decline by 22% [3]. - The company plans to leverage the upcoming Olympic events for marketing activities, which may lead to a new growth phase for the brand in the medium to long term [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.366 billion, 2.540 billion, and 2.759 billion yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].