来源 ： 内容 编译自 barrons 。 很少有公司比阿斯麦控股 (ASML Holding) 更能从人工智能热潮中获益。这家荷兰公司几乎垄断 了用于生产数据中心高性能芯片的专用光刻机市场，而这一业务正以前所未有的速度蓬勃发展。 ASML 的美国存托凭证在过去一年上涨了 11%。然而，由于受到无法保证在2026年保持增长 。该 公司面临一个大问题。ASML 最新的极紫外光刻 (EUV) 设备大客户数量有限，而目前，其中一家 ——台积电(TSMC)——在先进芯片制造领域占据主导地位。这令人担忧，因为当芯片制造商争夺 霸主地位，不断升级设备以保持领先地位时，ASML 才能蓬勃发展。 ASML 目前正在销售新一代"高数值孔径" EUV 机器，即 High NA EUV。它是 独家供应商 并预 计这些工具将在未来十年内实现更小的芯片。然而，每台这些工具的成本可能超过4亿美元。 台积电显然对这个价格犹豫不决。一位高管在5月份的一次行业会议上表示，这家芯片制造商相信 可以延长其现有EUV光刻机的使用寿命。 这家台湾公司在一封电子邮件声明中告诉《巴伦周刊》： "当高数值孔径 EUV 技术成熟并准备好 为我们的客户带来最大 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's market value has decreased by over $130 billion (approximately 936.5 billion RMB) in less than a year due to export restrictions to China and uncertainties regarding U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - ASML's stock price reached a historical high of over €1000 per share in July last year, with a market capitalization of $429.5 billion, but has since fallen to just below $297 billion [1]. - The semiconductor sector has been volatile since last year, primarily due to increased U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China and tariff threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. - All equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor field have seen their stock prices decline, reflecting concerns over U.S. restrictions on China [1]. Group 2: ASML's Position and Future Outlook - ASML is considered a crucial player in the semiconductor supply chain, known for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, which is essential for producing advanced chips [2]. - The company has begun shipping its next-generation high numerical aperture (High NA) equipment, but has not been able to ship its most advanced lithography machines to China, limiting potential sales [2]. - ASML's CEO expects that the company's business in China will account for a lower percentage of revenue in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024 [2]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Despite external pressures, analysts remain relatively optimistic about ASML, with an average target price of slightly above €779, indicating a potential increase of about 17% from the recent closing price [3]. - Wells Fargo analysts expressed optimism about ASML's growth opportunities in 2025 and 2026, highlighting investments from companies like Samsung and Intel in next-generation chip manufacturing tools [3].