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甬金股份(603995):2025 三季报点评:需求下行短期盈利承压,新材料项目有望持续增益
Orient Securities· 2025-11-09 06:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.26 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 13X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's profitability is under pressure due to declining demand and falling steel prices, with a reported net profit of approximately 450 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 27.98% [9]. - Despite short-term challenges, the new materials segment is expected to provide a new growth point for profits, with ongoing projects in high-quality stainless steel and titanium materials [9]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, distributing 3 CNY per 10 shares, which reflects a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 43,389 million CNY, 46,695 million CNY, and 50,804 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 7.6%, and 8.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 664 million CNY, 738 million CNY, and 855 million CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -17.6%, 11.1%, and 15.9% [4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 5.6% to 5.7% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to improve slightly from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2027 [4].