证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 27 年 月 日 钢铁 黑色产业链价格波动加大 行情回顾（7.21-7.25）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,816.51 点，上涨 7.55%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 5.86pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 2 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场继续上行，"反内卷"政策主题下诸多板块涨幅较大， 黑色产业链价格也有不小的涨幅。本轮商品六月初逐步见底回升，第一阶 段更多是库存周期偏转所致。上半年在出口强劲和财政前置发力的情况 下，钢铁内外需表现良好。但关税摩擦后，市场的不确定性迫使产业链主 动清理库存。之前强现实弱预期去库存使得六月份之后产业链库存几近干 涸，从而库存周期反转。由于库存位置太低，一旦反转价格弹性极大。下 半年随着抢出口逐步消退和财政发力放缓，以及去年八月开始财政后置发 力抬高的同比基数，经济增速较上半年可能会有所下降。缓解的措施包括 存量政策的执行，如上半年政策性金融工具和房地产收储政策，还有一些 储备的政策，整体经济大概率依然处于稳定可控的状态。黑色金属需求我 们并不悲观，如果下半年"反内卷"政策有效落地，将 ...

雅江电站拉动特钢需求，钢厂利润持续修复 2025 年 07 月 27 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 7 月 25 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3450 元/吨，较上周升 180 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3620 元/吨， 较上周升 190 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3550 元/吨，较上周升 170 元/吨。 冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3900 元/吨，较上周升 170 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3480 元/吨，较上周升 120 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升， 进口矿市场价格稳中有升，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+46 元/吨，+45 元/吨和+79 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+42 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 7 月 25 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 867 万吨，环比降 1.22 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比增 1.8 万吨，板材产量周环比降 3.02 万吨，螺纹钢本周增产 ...

钢铁周报 20250720 稳增长方案即将出台，钢铁产能有望优化 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 7 月 18 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3270 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3430 元/吨， 较上周升 20 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3380 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3730 元/吨，较上周升 50 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3360 元 /吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格上涨，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润震荡。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-19 元/吨，-7 元/吨和+7 元/吨。短流程方面，本 周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+11 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 7 月 18 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 868 万吨，环比降 4.53 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 4.45 万吨，板材产量周环比降 0.08 万吨，螺纹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insider trading allegations against the actual controller of Yongjin Co., Ltd., Cao Peifeng, and the implications for the company following her legal troubles [3][5][9]. Group 1: Insider Trading Allegations - Cao Peifeng was placed under residential surveillance by the police on July 7, 2025, due to allegations of insider trading and leaking insider information [3][4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has previously issued an administrative penalty against Cao Peifeng for her insider trading and short-term trading activities [4][9]. - The insider trading involved manipulating three other securities accounts to trade Yongjin Co., Ltd. shares during sensitive periods related to the company's stock buyback announcements [6][10]. Group 2: Financial Impact of Insider Trading - Cao Peifeng's insider trading activities resulted in a total loss of approximately 117,100 yuan (around 17,000 USD) across two rounds of trading [11]. - In the first round of insider trading, she made a profit of about 549,200 yuan (approximately 80,000 USD), while in the second round, she incurred a loss of about 666,300 yuan (approximately 98,000 USD) [11]. - The company announced two stock buyback plans, with the first plan involving a total amount of no less than 50 million yuan (approximately 7.2 million USD) and the second plan involving no less than 200 million yuan (approximately 28.8 million USD) [10]. Group 3: Company Background and Current Status - Yongjin Co., Ltd. was established in August 2003 and went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 2019, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of cold-rolled stainless steel strips [13]. - The company confirmed that the legal issues surrounding Cao Peifeng are personal matters and will not affect its daily operations, business, or financial status [5][14]. - The company is currently in the investigation stage, and the management remains in normal operation [14][15].

Group 1 - Tianjin Dog Buli Group has been listed in the business abnormality directory due to failure to publicly disclose its annual report within the stipulated time [1] - The company, established in 1991, has a registered capital of 65 million RMB and operates several subsidiaries [1] - Despite recent negative public sentiment, the last financial report indicated a revenue of 155 million RMB and a net profit of over 24 million RMB for 2019 [2][3] Group 2 - The revenue from freshly made buns only accounts for 20% of total revenue, while frozen buns contribute 41% [2] - The company has faced criticism for its pricing and service quality, with some customers advising against visiting its stores [2][3] - The brand's expansion efforts, including ventures into coffee and skincare products, have not been successful, leading to a significant reduction in its coffee shop presence [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The actual controller of Yongjin Co., Ltd., Cao Peifeng, is under criminal investigation for insider trading and has been granted bail pending trial, which may not affect the company's daily operations or financial status [2][3][4]. Company Overview - Yongjin Co., Ltd. was established in 2003 and is headquartered in Lanxi City, Zhejiang Province. The company primarily focuses on cold-rolled stainless steel and has diversified investments in various sectors, including titanium alloy materials and new energy battery shell materials [3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, Cao Peifeng and her husband, former chairman Yu Jiqun, collectively hold approximately 43% of the company's shares [3]. Insider Trading Case - Cao Peifeng is facing criminal charges due to significant insider trading activities related to Yongjin Co., Ltd. The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau had previously imposed administrative penalties on her, totaling over 6 million yuan [2][6]. - The insider trading involved two transactions during sensitive periods, resulting in a profit of approximately 550,000 yuan and a loss of about 670,000 yuan [6][7]. - The total penalties imposed on Cao Peifeng amounted to approximately 640 million yuan, including the confiscation of illegal gains and fines [7]. Market Impact - Following the announcement of the investigation, Yongjin Co., Ltd.'s stock price fell by 2.39%, closing at 17.55 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of approximately 6.4 billion yuan [8].

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for Shanxi to implement strategies for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin [1] - The State Council Premier Li Qiang reassures that the Chinese economy can withstand external shocks and will support overseas Chinese enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates China's stance against protectionism and trade wars, stating that there are no winners in such conflicts [3] Group 2 - In June, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 1.111 million units, up 29.7% [6] - Changan Group is preparing for a restructuring, with a plan to be finalized in August [7] - Hunan province discovers a significant lithium ore deposit of 490 million tons, with lithium oxide resources amounting to 131,000 tons [9] - Northern Rare Earth reports a recovery in export orders for rare earth products and maintains a positive outlook on future price trends [10] - Several companies, including Shengnong Development and Juhua Co., expect substantial increases in net profits for the first half of the year, with projections ranging from 733% to 2034% [12]

Key Points - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [1] - The main reasons for the significant profit growth include the continuous recovery in the prices of fluorinated refrigerants and stable growth in production and sales of core products [2] - Haida Group anticipates a net profit of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.64% to 31.76% [3][4] - Huagong Technology expects a net profit of 890 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 42.43% to 52.03% [5][6] - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 2.7 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.19% to 11.16% [7][8] - Saint Farm anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [13] - Dinglong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 290 million to 320 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.12% to 46.9% [14] - Yuxiu Capital forecasts a net profit of 1.473 billion to 1.575 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 45% to 55% [15] - Haohua Technology expects a net profit of 590 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.30% to 75.50% [16] - Huace Navigation anticipates a net profit of 320 million to 335 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 27.37% to 33.34% [18] - Dajin Heavy Industry expects a net profit of 510 million to 570 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 193.32% to 227.83% [20] - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of approximately 12.71 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [22]

Core Viewpoint - The actual controller of Yongjin Co., Ltd., Cao Peifeng, is under investigation for insider trading and has been placed under residential surveillance, which the company claims will not affect its daily operations or financial status [1][5]. Summary by Sections Insider Trading Allegations - Cao Peifeng has been involved in insider trading and short-term trading activities, manipulating three other securities accounts to trade Yongjin Co. stocks during sensitive periods, leading to a total loss of approximately 120,000 yuan [1][2][3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued an administrative penalty against Cao Peifeng, including a warning, confiscation of illegal gains of about 550,000 yuan, and a fine of approximately 5.85 million yuan [2]. Company Operations and Financials - Yongjin Co. primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of cold-rolled stainless steel strips, with products covering both precision and wide cold-rolled stainless steel strips [3]. - The company announced two rounds of share buybacks, with the first round planned for a total amount between 50 million and 100 million yuan at a price not exceeding 43.43 yuan per share, and the second round planned for 200 million to 400 million yuan at a price not exceeding 34.2 yuan per share [2]. Shareholding Structure - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, Cao Peifeng and her husband, the former chairman, collectively hold 43.27% of Yongjin Co.'s shares, with her sister also being a shareholder [4]. Current Status of Investigation - The company has stated that the investigation is still in the evidence collection phase, and the normal operations of the current chairman and board members are unaffected [5].