1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for logs continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. As of November 28, the national port inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters (-60,000), and the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters (-3,100). The 01 contract is currently in a contradictory state. Although it is approaching the delivery month, it starts to follow the valuation logic. However, there are certain differences between the 01 contract and the 11 contract. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not as optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area as before. At present, the spot market is weak, and factors such as the concerns of long - position holders about the handling difficulty of receiving goods in non - mainstream gathering places also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria. If the import is completely restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term. At present, it is not recommended to continue to chase short positions. Whether the 01 contract will continue to have a deep discount when entering delivery is uncertain. The 01 contract is currently undervalued, and the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, showing a continuous weak and volatile trend. The 03 contract can refer to the monthly spread of the 01 contract. From the perspective of the demand side, the probability that the traditional seasonal peak season of 03 cannot be realized is relatively high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. The national port inventory and daily average outbound volume data are at a relatively neutral level. The 01 contract is in a contradictory state. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area. The weak spot market and the concerns of long - position holders about receiving goods also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria, and if restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term [3][4][5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Weak and volatile. - **Basis and Spread Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 01 - 03 monthly spread on rallies. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations**: - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits according to their inventory situation to prevent inventory losses and make up for production costs. The recommended shorting contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820. - For procurement management, when the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 740 - 750 [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The impact of cryptomeria import needs to be focused on [11]. - **Negative Information**: The report does not mention negative information. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis data of different log specifications in various ports on December 5, 2025 [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the 01 contract fluctuated, and the open interest increased to 15,000 lots. The reasons for the weak market include low willingness of buyers to receive goods in delivery, high delivery costs for sellers, a downward shift in foreign market quotes, an increase in short - term supply, weakening downstream consumption, and a decrease in spot prices. The 11 - 01 monthly spread reached - 50 before the delivery of the 11 contract. The 01 - 03 monthly spread structure may not replicate the previous state, but considering the weak spot market, it can still be shorted on rallies [15][17][18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 790 (down 10), and that in Shandong is around 803. The willingness of buyers to receive goods, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 750 - 760. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [26]. 3.4.2 Import Profit - The import profit has been repaired to a certain extent. Reducing the proportion of mouth - material timber and increasing the proportion of integrated timber will improve the import profit of the whole ship [27]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From December 6 to 15, it is expected that 10 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 371,000 cubic meters. As of November 28, the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared with the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will return to the destocking stage [30].