Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Yang Lu of Guomao Futures Research Institute - Investment Consultation Number: Z0015194 [4] - Qualification Number: F3042528 [4] - Report Date: April 16, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiata pine, 3.9m medium A is 820 yuan, 5.9m medium A is 840 yuan, 3.9m small A is 760 yuan, 5.9m small A is 800 yuan [5] - In Jiangsu, for radiata pine, 4m medium A is 780 yuan, 6m medium A is 810 yuan, 4m small A is 740 yuan, 6m small A is 760 yuan [5] Outer - disk Quotation - For radiata pine of 4m medium A, the April price range is 125 - 135 dollars/JAS cubic meter, with a 10 - dollar increase from March's 114 dollars [5] Futures Price - LG2607 contract is 817 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan from the previous period; LG2605 contract is 817 yuan/cubic meter, down 8 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Fang Price - In Shandong, the price of wood Fang (4000*50*100) is 1280 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous period; in Jiangsu, it remains 1280 yuan [5] Group 3: Supply Information Import Volume - In April, New Zealand's import volume is 900,000 cubic meters, North American timber is 135,000 cubic meters, and European timber is 117,000 cubic meters [5] - The weekly shipment volume from New Zealand from April 4 - April 10 is 510,000 JAS cubic meters, up from 410,000 JAS cubic meters from March 28 - April 3 [5] Group 4: Inventory Information Total Inventory - On April 3, the total inventory is 2.78 million cubic meters, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods [5] Regional Inventory - Shandong's inventory on April 3 is 1.75 million cubic meters; Jiangsu's is 850,000 cubic meters [5] Group 5: Demand Information Daily Average Out - bound Volume - On April 3, the daily average out - bound volume is 60,500 cubic meters [5] Regional Out - bound Volume - Shandong's out - bound volume on April 3 is 29,800 cubic meters; Jiangsu's is 24,000 cubic meters [5] Group 6: Core View - Starting this week, the spot price in Shandong has declined, and the market speculation willingness has decreased. The short - term log futures are expected to fluctuate in the range of 810 - 830 yuan [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of some specifications of logs in Taicang area have declined. The main reasons are the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in the arrival volume. There is a possibility that the post - holiday spot price increase expectation will be falsified. However, due to the long - term trend of the US - Iran war, there is a strong upward expectation and certainty for the overseas log quotations. The existing overseas quotations have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 805 - 825 yuan/m³ in spot size and 870 - 890 yuan/m³ in futures size. Although this quotation has been accepted by domestic traders, whether the significantly increased overseas quotations can be smoothly transmitted to the domestic market remains to be observed. The current price of the optimal delivery product 5.9 small A in Shandong area is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ on the futures market, and the futures price has a certain discount. But the main contract LG2605 is still far from the delivery month, and the overall trading logic is dominated by expectations. In the past three years, the spot price of logs has a high probability of falling from March to May. In summary, the log futures price is affected by the "upward expectation of overseas quotations" and the "sluggish spot market", and there is no consistent trading theme. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810. It is recommended to wait and see in terms of operation. The focus in the future should be on the implementation of overseas quotations and the spot price [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some specifications of log prices in Taicang area have fallen, mainly due to weak spot market demand and increased arrival volume. The post - holiday price increase expectation may be false. Overseas log quotations have a strong upward expectation, but whether they can be transmitted to the domestic market is uncertain. The futures price has a discount, and the main contract is far from the delivery month. The trading logic is expectation - dominated. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 790 - 810 range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Future focus should be on overseas quotation implementation and spot price [5]. - Log main data: The closing price of the main contract is 792.5, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous period; the total position is 12765, a decrease of 9.53%; the position of the main contract is 8209, a decrease of 11.72%. The total inventory is 313.3, an increase of 4.87%; Shandong inventory is 195.5, an increase of 1.82%; Jiangsu inventory is 91.1, an increase of 12.25%. The total outbound volume is 33, an increase of 455%; Shandong outbound volume is 24, an increase of 349.06%; Jiangsu outbound volume is 7. New Zealand's weekly shipping volume is 90, a decrease of 10%; weekly shipping volume is 350, a decrease of 7.89%; export profit is - 34, a decrease of 4.78. The New Zealand CFR quotation is 121, an increase of 7.08%; the spruce CFR quotation is 125, unchanged. The trader's import profit is - 46.5, a decrease of 13.29%; the processing profit is - 44.6, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures position: As of March 13, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts is 12765 lots, a decrease of 9.5% from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract is 8209 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.7% [12]. - Spot price: As of March 13, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 710/770/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 730/780/810 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 780/810/870 yuan/m³ [16]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Log import volume: In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [22]. - New Zealand log shipping and shipping volume: From March 7 - 13, 2026, a total of 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In the past four weeks, a total of 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 21 ships and 820,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month. Among them, a total of 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 13 ships and 500,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month [28]. - Trade profit: As of March 9, 2026, the overseas (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March is 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS square, an increase of 5 US dollars/JAS square compared with last month, and the transaction of this quotation is relatively good [35]. - Domestic log inventory: As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory is 3.13 million cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%; the North American timber inventory is 260,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 160,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports is 1,955,000 cubic meters, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports is 910,800 cubic meters, an increase of 12.25% from the previous week [40]. - Domestic port log outbound volume: From March 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China is 33,300 cubic meters, an increase of 455% from the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports is 23,800 cubic meters, an increase of 349.06% from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports is 7,000 cubic meters [42]. - Wood square price and processing profit: As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong is 1240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the wood square price in Jiangsu is 1310 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Shandong is - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu is - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [45]. - Downstream: As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 6.9, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the Baltic Dry Index is 2028, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a state of game between expectations and reality, with small fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of logs is 1, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary Based on the Table of Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: The 2605 contract's closing price was 800 on March 2, 2026, with a daily increase of 0.2% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. The trading volume was 3742, up 18.4% daily and 55% weekly, and the open interest was 8416, up 10.7% daily and 49% weekly. Similar data is provided for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1] - **Spot-Futures Spread**: The spot - 2605 spread was -50 on March 2, 2026, with a daily increase of 3.1% and a weekly increase of 28%. Similar data is provided for other spreads [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from February 24 to March 2, 2026 [1] Macro and Industry News - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on further optimizing and adjusting the local real estate policy on February 25, 2026, which took effect on February 26, 2026 [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson mentioned that the two sides of China and the United States are in communication about President Trump's visit to China [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The price of logs is slightly rising. The overall trend strength of logs is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend strength range being integers from -2 to 2 [-2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view] [1][4] Group 3: Summary of Related Contents by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 795 on 2026/2/2, with a daily decline of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 2.5%; the trading volume was 11,027, with a daily decline of 28.6% and a weekly increase of 199%; the open - interest was 9,071, with a daily decline of 10.4% and a weekly decline of 12%. Similar data is provided for the 2605 and 2607 contracts. There are also data on the price differences between different contracts [1] - **Spot Market**: In the log spot market, prices of different types of logs in different regions showed different changes. For example, the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market had a price of 750 yuan/m³ on 2026/2/2, with a daily increase of 1.4% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. In the wood square spot market, prices of different types of wood squares in different regions also showed different changes. For example, the 3 - meter radiata pine wood square in Rizhao had a price of 1,270 yuan/m³ on 2026/2/2, with a daily increase of 4.1% and a weekly increase of 4.1% [1] Macro and Industry News - China's Manufacturing PMI in January was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real - estate enterprise related personnel stated that currently, their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [3] Trend Strength - The log trend strength is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend strength range being integers from -2 to 2 [-2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view] [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log futures have reached a reasonable range, and the spot price shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding. However, the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers overall [5] - The log futures are oscillating at a low level. The spot market price shows certain signals of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs left the ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to the previous week [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of January 9, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.75% [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, within a reasonable range [5] - **Investment View**: The log futures have reached a reasonable range, and the spot price shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Not provided; Risk Concerns: Domestic demand situation [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The log futures are oscillating at a low level. In the absence of a warming in the fundamentals, the log futures basically maintained a range - bound oscillation this week. The spot market price shows certain signals of bottoming out and rebounding, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers [8] - **Futures Position**: As of January 16, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,235 lots, a 2.3% increase compared to the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 11,876 lots, basically unchanged week - on - week [12] - **Spot Price**: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 680/740/850 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 710/760/940 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine in Jiangsu were 690/750/800 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 770/810/840 yuan per cubic meter [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs in China was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs in China was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. In November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.7876 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 19.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.50%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 16.7954 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.84% [21] - **New Zealand Shipping and Shipment Volume**: In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs left the ports in New Zealand, a month - on - month increase of 3 ships, and the total shipment volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase compared to 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 5 - 11, 2026, there were 13 pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China, an increase of 1 ship compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [25] - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the North American wood inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 20.00%; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, the total inventory of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 1.96 million cubic meters, a 0.51% increase compared to the previous week; the total inventory of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 484,329 cubic meters, a 4.80% decrease compared to the previous week [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase compared to the previous week [35] - **Downstream**: As of January 16, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,170 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter; the processing profit in Shandong was - 68.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 6 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter [39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Log spot prices have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding recently, and the further downside space for futures prices is expected to be limited. However, the January FOB quotes still show a slight decline, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 740 yuan, 5.9 - meter medium A is 760 yuan, 3.9 - meter small A is 680 yuan, and 5.9 - meter small A is 710 yuan. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 730 yuan, 6 - meter medium A is 780 yuan, 4 - meter small A is 670 yuan, and 6 - meter small A is 730 yuan [5] FOB Quote - The FOB quote for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is in the range of 109 - 112 dollars/JAS m³ in January, compared to 109 - 113 dollars/JAS m³ in December, with a change of - J [5] Futures Price - The price of LG2605 contract is 790 yuan/m³, up from 789 yuan/m³ in the previous period. The price of LG2603 contract is 780.5 yuan/m³, up from 779.5 yuan/m³ in the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1220 yuan, unchanged from the previous period. In Jiangsu, it is 1240 yuan, also unchanged [5] Supply - In December 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 178.8 (in 10,000 m³), North American timber was 9.3 (in 10,000 m³), and European timber was 15.5 (in 10,000 m³). The ship - arrival volume in the week of December 22 - 28 was 31 (in 10,000 JAS m³), down from 52 (in 10,000 JAS m³) in the week of December 15 - 21 [5] Inventory - On January 8, the total inventory was 269 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong inventory at 229 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 48.4 (in 10,000 m³) [5] Demand - On January 8, the daily average outbound volume was 5.75 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 2.79 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.35 (in 10,000 m³) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipments from ports remained unchanged week - on - week, and the total inventory of the four major ports did not change either. The spot prices of mainstream lumber remained stable, and the market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand. The BDI decreased by 7.78% week - on - week, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the New Zealand dollar declined [4][6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 15 ships were expected to arrive in December, and 18 in January. The expected arrival volume in December was 1.58 million cubic meters [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2668 million cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with a week - on - week de - stocking of 0 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level volatile state this week, and the fundamental situation maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 17.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7 yuan per cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week ending December 28, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877.00 points, a decrease of 146 points (- 7.78%) from the previous week. Its relevant sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 719 points, a - 3.62% change from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,656.32 points, a 6.7% increase from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.007, a 0.48% decrease week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% to 1.709 [6][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, the futures market has been weakly volatile, and port inventories have decreased [4][19] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, with a price difference of 10 yuan/m³ between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of December 7, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 7 of which were bound for the Chinese mainland and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in December and 0 in January. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.28 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.38 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.36 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.45 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.24 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventories, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.3528 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 million cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 0.4115 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0409 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 0.2247 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0494 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 0.1237 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0365 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1127 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1428 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trend - As of December 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 749 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The futures market continued to be weakly volatile this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 16 yuan/m³, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 28.5 yuan/m³, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 12.5 yuan/m³ [19] Other - As of the week of December 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2294.00 points, a decrease of 433 points (-15.9%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 814 points, a decrease of 3.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.46 points, an increase of 7.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.059, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.6% to 1.722 [6][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for logs continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. As of November 28, the national port inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters (-60,000), and the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters (-3,100). The 01 contract is currently in a contradictory state. Although it is approaching the delivery month, it starts to follow the valuation logic. However, there are certain differences between the 01 contract and the 11 contract. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not as optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area as before. At present, the spot market is weak, and factors such as the concerns of long - position holders about the handling difficulty of receiving goods in non - mainstream gathering places also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria. If the import is completely restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term. At present, it is not recommended to continue to chase short positions. Whether the 01 contract will continue to have a deep discount when entering delivery is uncertain. The 01 contract is currently undervalued, and the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, showing a continuous weak and volatile trend. The 03 contract can refer to the monthly spread of the 01 contract. From the perspective of the demand side, the probability that the traditional seasonal peak season of 03 cannot be realized is relatively high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. The national port inventory and daily average outbound volume data are at a relatively neutral level. The 01 contract is in a contradictory state. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area. The weak spot market and the concerns of long - position holders about receiving goods also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria, and if restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term [3][4][5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Weak and volatile. - **Basis and Spread Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 01 - 03 monthly spread on rallies. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations**: - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits according to their inventory situation to prevent inventory losses and make up for production costs. The recommended shorting contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820. - For procurement management, when the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 740 - 750 [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The impact of cryptomeria import needs to be focused on [11]. - **Negative Information**: The report does not mention negative information. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis data of different log specifications in various ports on December 5, 2025 [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the 01 contract fluctuated, and the open interest increased to 15,000 lots. The reasons for the weak market include low willingness of buyers to receive goods in delivery, high delivery costs for sellers, a downward shift in foreign market quotes, an increase in short - term supply, weakening downstream consumption, and a decrease in spot prices. The 11 - 01 monthly spread reached - 50 before the delivery of the 11 contract. The 01 - 03 monthly spread structure may not replicate the previous state, but considering the weak spot market, it can still be shorted on rallies [15][17][18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 790 (down 10), and that in Shandong is around 803. The willingness of buyers to receive goods, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 750 - 760. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [26]. 3.4.2 Import Profit - The import profit has been repaired to a certain extent. Reducing the proportion of mouth - material timber and increasing the proportion of integrated timber will improve the import profit of the whole ship [27]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From December 6 to 15, it is expected that 10 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 371,000 cubic meters. As of November 28, the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared with the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will return to the destocking stage [30].