2 综述 1 综述 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场 报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 0。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 760 元/方，较上周 持平。欧 洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 供应： 截止到12月21日，12月从新西兰出发的船只总共有33条，其中有26条去往中国大陆 ...

CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 750 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 760 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上 的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到12月7日，12月从新西兰出发的船只总共有8条，其中有7条去往中国大陆，1条去往中国台湾、韩 国减载。12月出发的船只中，预计12月到港的约为8条，1月到港的有0条。预计11月到货128万方。 供应： 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月14日 Guota ...

原木数据纵览 | 类别 | 指标 | 更新日期 | 数值 | 环差 | 同比 | 频率 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 辐射松进口量 | 2025-10-31 | 148 | 3 | 15.6% | 月 | 万m³ | | 库存 | 港口库存（中国） | 2025-11-28 | 297 | -6 | 10.0% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 港口库存（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 1986000 | -79000 | 29.8% | 周 | m³ | | | 港口库存（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 850900 | 19123 | 0.4% | 周 | m³ | | 需求 | 原木港口日均出库量 | 2025-11-28 | 6.13 | -0.31 | 16.3% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 3.04 | -0.55 | 29.4% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 2.62 | 0.26 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable this week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of October 26, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 32 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 1770,000 cubic meters of logs will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 24, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. - As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 0.4%, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) decreased by 2.6%, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 10.5%. The US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate down 0.1% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% [6][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data**: As of October 26, 40 ships departed from New Zealand in October, 32 to mainland China and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. About 20 ships are expected to arrive in October and 20 in November. The estimated arrival volume in October is 1.77 million cubic meters [5][8]. - **Detailed Ship Information**: The report provides detailed information on 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, including departure time, load capacity, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [10]. Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment Volume**: As of the week of October 24, Lanshan Port's daily average shipment volume was 23,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 2,100 cubic meters), and Taicang Port's was 12,200 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 3,100 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 351,900 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 40,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port's was about 350,800 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 22,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 143,000 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0895 million cubic meters, a decrease of 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. Market Trends - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: As of October 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5.0% from the previous week. The backwardation spread widened significantly this week [19]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: The spot prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The report also presents the regional spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications, as well as the spreads between different tree species and specifications [22][23]. Other - **Other Price Influencing Factors**: As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1983.00 points, a decrease of 8 points (- 0.4%) from the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 855 points, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, an increase of 10.5% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.118, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% to 1.747 [6][51].

Group 1: Report Overview - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and hitting 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 6-meter medium H at Lanshan Port remained unchanged at 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, and the foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS with no transactions [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Today's Fluctuation - Information aspect: China imposed counter - measures on the US 301 ship fees on October 14, increasing the whole - ship cost of logs by about 10%, causing the log futures to rise. After the China - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port fees, leading to long - position reduction and price decline [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. Port arrivals are concentrated recently, and traders' active inventory reduction pressures the spot market. The sales of laminated timber have declined, and the price of export - grade timber is under pressure. Also, the foreign quotation of 120 US dollars/UAS is difficult to conclude deals and is expected to be readjusted [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The fundamental situation of the log market remains weak, with no clear positive drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, port inventory will gradually increase, and the demand is weak with low trader purchasing willingness. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, logs may experience seasonal inventory accumulation again [4]. Group 4: Investment Suggestion - The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the market will return to a weak operation rhythm. Speculative investors are advised to wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent China - US negotiations on port fees [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rebound slightly. Although the inventory at domestic ports is decreasing, the supply is abundant. There is still inventory pressure on finished paper, and industry profits are meager. Affected by policy expectations and macro - emotions, the price of the pulp 2601 contract is expected to oscillate and rebound in the range of 5150 - 5420 this week [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp remained stable, while the price of natural pulp increased by 3.09% month - on - month, and the prices of chemimechanical pulp and non - wood pulp remained stable. For example, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the price of natural pulp Venus increased by 150 yuan/ton (or + 3.09%) [11][13]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2601 oscillated and rebounded steadily last week, closing at 5240 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton (or + 2.3%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 1.3 million lots, a decrease of 199,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 355,000 lots, a decrease of 41,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The discount of the futures - spot basis continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 250 yuan/ton, a reduction of 128 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The log futures contract 2601 showed a trend of rising first and then falling with slight oscillations. It closed at 829.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.78%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 69,200 lots, a decrease of 9700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 25,100 lots, an increase of 3700 lots [20]. 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 535,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 1.13%). The production of broad - leaved pulp was 235,000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons (or + 1.29%), and the production of chemimechanical pulp was 236,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons (or + 0.85%). This week, the production of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to be about 237,000 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp about 237,000 tons [22]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp was 84.9%, a decrease of 0.9%, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 89.8%, an increase of 0.6%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to rise due to the resumption of some sample enterprises [25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In September 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69,000 tons (or + 3.24%); the wood pulp production was 1.89 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons (or + 4.07%); the non - wood pulp production was 306,000 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons (or - 1.61%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In September 2025, the production of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (or + 1.12%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, an increase of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaved pulp was 988,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons (or + 6.93%), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.0%, an increase of 1.1% [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In September 2025, the production profit of broad - leaved pulp was 575.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.1 yuan/ton (or + 9.33%), and a year - on - year decrease of 585.46 yuan/ton (or - 50.45%). The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 301.3 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.9525 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 299,600 tons (or + 11.29%) and a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons (or + 10.17%). The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 27.0608 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.42 million tons (or + 5.6%) [36]. 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the production was 284,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons (or + 1.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.2%, an increase of 1.63%. This week, the production is expected to be about 286,000 tons [40]. - **Offset Paper**: Last week, the production was 207,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4000 tons (or + 1.97%), and the capacity utilization rate was 53.9%, an increase of 0.9%. This week, the production is expected to increase to about 210,000 tons [43]. - **Coated Paper**: Last week, the production was 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 7.59%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, an increase of 4.8%. This week, the production is expected to be about 85,000 tons [46]. - **White Cardboard**: Last week, the production was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons (or + 4.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 79.65%, an increase of 3.32%. This week, the production is expected to be about 362,000 tons [49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the gross profit was 151 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton (or - 4.43%). - **White Cardboard**: The social gross profit was 110 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton (or + 0.92%). - **Offset Paper**: The average cost was 4887.0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 yuan/ton (or - 0.09%), and the gross profit was - 244 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 5 yuan/ton. - **Coated Paper**: The average cost was 4781.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton (or - 0.10%), and the gross profit was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (or + 2.66%) [52][55]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In September 2025, the actual domestic pulp consumption was 3.461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons (or + 1.75%) and a year - on - year increase of 237,000 tons (or + 7.36%) [56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: - **Household Tissue Paper and Cultural Paper**: The prices remained stable. For example, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: The price of white board paper remained stable, while the price of white cardboard increased slightly. For example, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g red - crowned crane white cardboard increased by 50 yuan/ton (or + 1.30%) [59][64]. 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: The overall port inventory is decreasing. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons (or - 0.92%). Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.39 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 0.86%); Changshu Port's inventory was 505,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons (or + 1.41%); Tianjin Port's inventory was 75,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons (or - 3.85%) [67][68]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% month - on - month to 228,400 tons. The warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.83% to 215,700 tons [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week, and the European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still out of stock. The supply is expected to reach 1.77 million cubic meters in October. The demand has increased, and the total inventory of the four major ports has increased. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the monthly spread has a weakening trend [4][5][6][20] Summary by Directory Overview - The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 765 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 775 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat compared to last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 910 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 805 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4] Supply - As of October 19, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland and 7 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 20 ships will arrive in October and 13 in November, with an expected arrival of 1.77 million cubic meters in October [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.92 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 0.91 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.05 million cubic meters). The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2338 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.052 million cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 0.3928 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.0123 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 0.3736 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0162 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 0.1185 million cubic meters (no change). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1187 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.0559 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][14] Market Trend - As of October 24, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 829 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week. The market first rose and then fell, and the market was in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread had a weakening trend, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at - 6 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at - 1 yuan/cubic meter [20] Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged compared to last week [26] - **Regional Spread**: The price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications were presented in corresponding charts [27][28][33][37] - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The price differences between different tree species and specifications in Shandong were presented in corresponding charts [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other - As of the week of October 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1991 points, a decrease of 78 points (- 3.8%) compared to last week, and its related sub - index BHSI was 878 points, a decrease of 0.8% compared to last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, an increase of 7.1% compared to last week. The US dollar index was volatile. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.122, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.2% to 1.740 [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures market shows a high - level correction this week [4][17] - The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with different trends in each port's inventory and daily shipment volume [6][11] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, Shandong's quote was 765 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged from last week), and Jiangsu's was 770 yuan/cubic meter (up 5 yuan/cubic meter). The 3.9m 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was priced at 850 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged), and the 5.9m 30+ radiata pine was 805 yuan/cubic meter (up 20 yuan/cubic meter). European spruce and fir in Jiangsu are in short supply [4] - As of October 5, there were 7 ships departing from New Zealand in October, 6 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is expected that 7 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in October [5] - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.72 million cubic meters (down 0.36 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.44 million cubic meters (up 0.18 million cubic meters week - on - week). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1558 million cubic meters (up 1.50 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port had about 0.4394 million cubic meters (down 3.75 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou had about 0.3050 million cubic meters (up 1.45 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.1235 million cubic meters (down 2.29 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0237 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][11] - As of the week of October 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points, up 35 points (+1.8%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 873, up 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 4.1% from last week. The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.129, up 0.13% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose 0.2% to 1.723 [6][56] 2. Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows 7 ships departing in October, with details of their departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume and inventory of different ports showed different trends. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The data also shows the inventory and changes of different tree species in each port [11][12] 4. Market Trends - As of October 10, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 821 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.6% from last week. The market showed a high - level correction this week, and the monthly spread changes were small [17] 5. Price and Spread - Spot price data of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are provided, including 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc., along with their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented, such as 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc. [23][28][32] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications are also shown, like the difference between 3.9m 30+ radiata pine and 3.9m 40+ radiata pine [40][42][44] 6. Other - Other price influencing factors include freight rates and exchange rates. The dry bulk BDI, Handysize BHSI, crude oil BDTI, and SCFI all had different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The US dollar to RMB and US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rates also changed [55][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend, with the average price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions increasing by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to before the holiday. The log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month, with a significant trend of concentrated arrivals. Although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation in demand. The overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price corrected, and the closing price of the main 2511 contract was 828.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.41% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week. As of August 15th, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend. The supply side indicates that the log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month. In terms of demand, although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation. The inventory data shows that the overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The log spot market was basically stable this week, with port inventories decreasing, outbound volume remaining stable, and spot prices rising due to increased inquiries from futures - spot traders. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, with a significant increase in log warehouse receipts, and the futures price is under pressure and expected to operate weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - disk Quotation - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Price - LG2511 contract is 823.5 yuan/m³, up 2 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 804.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1270 yuan, unchanged from the previous period; in Jiangsu, it is 1280 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous period [4] Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 167.3 million m³, North American timber was 9.5 million m³, and European timber was 19 million m³. New Zealand's shipment volume to China from August 4 - 10 was 26 million JAS m³, down from 27 million JAS m³ from July 28 - August 3 [4] Inventory - On August 15, the total inventory was 306 million m³, with Shandong's inventory at 185 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 98 million m³ [4] Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 million m³, with Shandong's at 3.59 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 2.32 million m³ [4]