投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 2025/8/22 | STATUTE OF COLLECTION OF | AND A BREAK | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 树种 | 规格 | 现货尺价格 | 期货尺价格 | 期货尺±升贴水 | | 基差 | | | | | 3.9米中A 5.9米中A | 750 790 | 810 850 | 810 800 | | -14 -24 | | | 山东 | 辐射松 | | | | | | | | | | | 3.9米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | | 17 | | | | | 5.9米小A | 730 | 800 | 800 | | -24 | | 现货价 | | | 4米中A | 770 | 830 | 830 | | 7 | | | 江苏 | 辐射松 | 6米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | | -14 | | | | | 4米小A | 720 | 780 | 830 | | 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some remaining flat and some increasing. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. [4] - In August, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand, with 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of some ports has changed, and the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased by 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 has increased by 1.7% compared with last week, and the market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level. The monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. [16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of August 3rd, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 17,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters). [6][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1,245,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 cubic meters), Taicang Port is about 376,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 59,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou is about 390,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 191,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2,203,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 1.7% increase compared with last week. The market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 10 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 11 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 1 yuan per cubic meter. [16] 3.4 Price and Spread - The spot price of logs shows different trends in different regions and specifications, with some remaining flat and some increasing. [20] - The downstream building wood square spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions has mostly remained flat compared with last week. [22] - The report presents the regional price differences of mainstream timber species and the price differences between tree species and specifications through data and charts. [23][40] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 8th, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was recorded at 2051 points, a 1.6% increase compared with last week; the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was recorded at 683 points, a 0.7% increase compared with last week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was recorded at 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decrease compared with last week. [6][54][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has fluctuated narrowly this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 7.184, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.6% to 1.680. [6][54][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 745 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week, with a regional price difference of -20 yuan. The 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 850 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week; the 5.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 765 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volumes and were still in short supply [4]. Supply - As of July 27, there were a total of 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. Among the ships departing in July, about 16 were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August. The expected arrival volume in July was 1.63 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 1.78 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 1.18 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2558 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.024 million cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 0.4363 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0785 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 0.4211 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0257 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.2068 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0962 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. Market Trend - As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. Other - As of the week ending August 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2018 points, down 239 points (-10.6%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 678 points, down 0.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was oscillating at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.200, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 2.0% to 1.69 [58][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating and Repeating" [1] 2. Core View - The report presents the latest fundamental data of logs, including price, trading volume, and open interest of different contracts, as well as the prices of various log products in the spot market. It also mentions a piece of macro - industry news about the Sino - US economic and trade talks [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Data of Logs - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 830 on July 29, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0.9%. Its trading volume decreased by 51.1% daily and 41% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 4.3% daily and 8% weekly. Similar data is provided for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts, such as 2509 - 2511, 2509 - 2601, and 2511 - 2601, are presented. For example, the 2509 - 2511 spread was - 3 on July 29, 2025 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various log products in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are listed, including different lengths and specifications of radiata pine, spruce, K - wood, pulp, and wood squares. Most of the prices remained stable with a daily change of 0.0%, but there were some weekly changes, such as a 4.0% weekly increase in the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Paper pulp futures are mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand fundamentals remain in a stalemate, with high port inventory pressure, abundant supply of circulating goods, limited improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate widely in the range of 5260 - 5590 this week [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices rose slightly. Among them, the price of broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai increased, with increases ranging from 1.22% to 1.74%. Coniferous pulp prices such as Yin Xing, Kai Li Pu, and Bei Mu remained unchanged. Chemical mechanical pulp and bleached kraft pulp prices remained stable, while reed pulp prices dropped significantly by 15.22% [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 continued to oscillate upwards last week, closing at 5520 yuan/ton, up 4.31% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.936 million lots, an increase of 689,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 305,000 lots, an increase of 28,000 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of softwood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 400 yuan/ton, and the discount decreased by 228 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.18% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 164,000 lots, a decrease of 23,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 31,500 lots, a decrease of 9900 lots [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, pulp production was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week. Among them, broad - leaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp production was 210,000 tons, both showing a decline [22]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 75.8%, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 88.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous week [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 3.36% from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 7.69%, and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 2.69% [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 85.0%, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous month [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.31% from the previous month, and the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction in losses of 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Pulp Imports**: In June 2025, pulp imports were 3.0306 million tons, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and 16.12% from the same period last year. The cumulative imports from January to June were 18.5777 million tons, an increase of 4.2% from the same period last year [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 279,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the production of coated paper was 79,000 tons, an increase of 1.28% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.0%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The production of offset paper was 196,000 tons, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous week [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 311,000 tons, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 462,300 tons, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The production of containerboard was 594,000 tons, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained basically stable, the price of white cardboard decreased slightly, and the prices of whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and containerboard remained stable [50][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tissue paper decreased by 1.5% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard increased by 2.58% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of offset paper increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of coated paper decreased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption decreased slightly [60][64][67]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend, with a total inventory of 2.143 million tons in mainstream ports, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.96%, the inventory in Changshu Port decreased by 5.26%, and the inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 5.36% [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 243,600 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong area are 224,500 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the weekly situation of the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price fluctuating at a relatively high level and the monthly spread tending to narrow. [16] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from the previous week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. [4] - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5] - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreased week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6] - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 10.0% week-on-week, and the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.3%. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 0.4% week-on-week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreasing by 0.9%. [6] Supply - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China, 3 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5][8] - Detailed information on the departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time of each ship is provided. [9] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 cubic meters). [6][13] - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2318 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 51,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 514,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 8,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 446,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 36,500 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 222,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4162 million cubic meters, an increase of 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6][13] Market Trends - As of July 25, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week. The market showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply and demand pattern. [16] - This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread was -8 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread was -12.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread was -4.5 yuan per cubic meter. [16] Price and Spread - The prices of various log species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged from the previous week, with only a few showing slight changes. [20][22] - The report also analyzed the regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different log species and specifications, as well as the price differences between different tree species and specifications. [23][38] Other - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,257 points, an increase of 205 points (10.0%) from the previous week, and its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 682 points, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,593 points, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous week. [53] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.154, a week-on-week decrease of 0.4%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by 0.9% to 1.662. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the log market from multiple perspectives, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. It details the current situation of the log market, such as changes in supply from New Zealand, port inventory and shipment volume, and fluctuations in spot and futures prices, along with various price differentials and other price - affecting factors [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of June 22, 30 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 24 bound for mainland China and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 10 vessels are expected to arrive in June and 20 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - A detailed list of 30 vessels including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1348 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29,800 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 474,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 420,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 202,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2317 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 819 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 28 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 35 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 7 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Spot Price - For the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 755 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The price of the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 810 yuan per cubic meter, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter to 775 yuan per cubic meter. European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4][20]. - The prices of downstream construction timber, such as 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter radiata pine, and 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter white pine/spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous week, but decreased compared to four weeks ago [22]. 3.4.2 Price Differential - Multiple price differentials are presented, including regional differentials between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine), and differentials between tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 20 +) [23][52]. 3.5 Other - As of the week of June 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,521 points, a 168 - point (-9.9%) decrease from the previous week. The related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 636 points, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure and reached a new stage low. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.172, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased slightly by 1% to 1.651 [6][55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread widened slightly this week [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in June, all going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 310,000 cubic meters in June [5][8][9]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 100 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 125,180 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 535,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 373,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 246,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 07 - 09 spread was - 17 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread was - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread was - 3.5 yuan/cubic meter [17]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [21][24][31] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different species and specifications, like the difference between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [45][46][50] 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of June 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1968 points, up 335 points (20.5%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 604 points, up 0.7% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 6.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index hit a new low this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% from last week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% from last week [58][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates a weak - demand situation in the log market, with prices showing an oscillatory downward trend. It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as the upcoming seasonal demand slump in May, reduced demand for construction materials caused by a decline in new housing starts, and a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern in the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in July [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basics - Trees can be classified into softwood (coniferous) and hardwood (broad - leaved) trees. Logs are divided into coniferous and broad - leaved logs, and log futures' deliverable items are coniferous logs. The benchmark deliverable item for log futures is radiata pine, and there are also alternative deliverable items with different specifications and corresponding price adjustments [13]. - The delivery area covers 9 major import provinces and cities, with Shandong as the benchmark delivery area. Different regions have different import volumes and corresponding premium or discount settings [14]. 3.2 Supply - In 2025, it is still the peak supply cycle for New Zealand. The import volume of logs has shown certain trends over the years, and different countries and tree species have different import proportions. For example, in 2024, New Zealand accounted for 68.3% of the import volume of coniferous logs [27][26]. 3.3 Demand - As of April 18, the average daily outbound volume of Chinese log ports was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The real - estate market's development investment, new construction area, and other indicators have an impact on log demand. The export of furniture and related data also reflect the demand situation in the market [36][38]. 3.4 Inventory - As of April 18, the port inventory of Chinese coniferous logs was 351 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory of North American logs decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, radiata pine decreased by 50,000 cubic meters, and spruce increased by 50,000 cubic meters [44][47]. 3.5 Price - This week, the spot prices remained stable. As of April 25, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous week, with a basis of - 16 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of other types of logs also remained unchanged compared to the previous week [49].