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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250723
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium - term and show a slightly strong intraday performance. The main reasons are the increasing expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans under normal weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the slow forward buying of ships in China leading to an expected tightening of forward supply, and the continuous fermentation of market optimism [5]. - The palm oil futures market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term and show a volatile trend in the medium - term. The palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. Driven by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is strong, which restricts its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With normal weather in US soybean - producing areas, the expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans is growing. The slow forward buying of ships in China leads to an expected tightening of forward supply, which boosts soybean futures prices. The market's optimistic sentiment is continuously fermenting, consolidating the recent strong pattern of soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures are stronger than the spot, and the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is slightly strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is slightly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. The rebound of the oil and fat sector reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats. Supported by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is still strong, restricting its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250703
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].