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供需矛盾累积,关注天气扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the supply outlook of international major producers, trade policy uncertainty, China's demand - structure adjustment, and high domestic inventory pressure. Future attention should be paid to the weather in major producing areas, trade - negotiation policies, and domestic inventory digestion [1] - The peanut market has limited and quality - differentiated sources of goods, with strong selling pressure from holders but weak downstream purchasing. The new - season planting area has increased, and future focus is on the impact of rainfall on new - season yields and demand changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 71.00 yuan/ton (- 1.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible - bean spot basis was A09 + 147, a change of + 71 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices remained stable [1] Strategy - Neutral [2] Risk - None [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8142.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 4.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.05%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8620.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 58.00, a change of - 4.00 (- 6.45%) from the previous day. Domestic peanut spot prices were slightly weaker, and most产区 inventories were low [2] Strategy - Neutral [4] Risk - Weak demand [4]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250703
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].