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森马服饰(002563):点评报告:25Q3业绩正增长,Q4开局良好
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-04 07:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 9.84 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 28.9% to 540 million yuan. The revenue growth is primarily attributed to offline expansion and the performance of the Balabala brand, with positive growth in both revenue and profit in Q3, and a strong start in Q4 is anticipated [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Channel Optimization - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue increased by 4.7% to 9.84 billion yuan, slightly slower than the overall retail growth of 6.3%. By brand, Semir grew by 2.7% and Balabala by 5.3%. The company is actively optimizing its channels, with a total of 8,105 stores at the end of Q3, having opened 861 new stores and closed 1,081. Q4 has started well, with double-digit growth in total retail in October, indicating a promising performance ahead [2][4] Profitability and Inventory Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The company has maintained a healthy inventory turnover, with inventory at the end of Q3 at 4.14 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. Inventory turnover days increased by 11 days to 191 days, reflecting a shift in inventory structure due to previous season's stock, but overall inventory remains at a healthy level [3][4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.22 billion yuan, 16.13 billion yuan, and 16.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 4.1%, 6.0%, and 5.1%. Net profits are expected to be 950 million yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.16 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -16.8%, +11.2%, and +10.4%. As of November 3, 2025, the market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 14, and 13 times for the respective years [4][5]