欧洲金融债

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债券投资者不可忽视的两个关键问题
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-07-11 16:11
Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing increasing differentiation as investors and policymakers respond to changing economic growth and inflation dynamics, with long-term bonds acting as a constraint on government strategies [1][5] - The average term premium in developed markets has exceeded 1.0% for the first time in 11 years, indicating rising concerns about debt sustainability [2][4] - The European Central Bank's inclination to continue lowering interest rates amidst rising defense spending and deteriorating fiscal outlooks in some countries may lead to higher long-term bond yields [4] Group 2 - In the current market environment, European financial bonds are favored due to their capital adequacy and limited exposure to U.S. trade policies, benefiting from German fiscal spending [6] - Emerging market corporate bonds are attractive, particularly those with limited exposure to the U.S., such as utilities and telecommunications, which have stable cash flows and low leverage [6] - Cautious views are maintained on long-term investment-grade corporate bonds due to narrow spreads and increased supply of U.S. Treasuries, which limit returns [6]