一是权重设置，可先按照"评级、行业、生命周期"分组，再依据综合信用分数细分到"重点关注、可持 有、观察、暂不持有"。R维度承担准入与事件触发的双重职责，触发清单需要结合科创债的特有事 件：如专利无效/侵权诉讼受理、关键产品研发落地或达产进度重大不及预期、招投标落选、核心客户 流失与出口管制升级等，均触发降权或移入观察名单。权重不与得分线性对应，还应受"成交深度与集 中度"约束：单券、发行人与行业分别设定持仓集中度上限（如单券2%—5%，对利润或经营现金流长 期为负者单券不超过2%，发行人4%，行业25%），对综合得分高但交易不活跃的标的进行降权，并以 分步成交的策略降低冲击。 财信证券股份有限公司副总裁、财务总监 刘之彦 自2021年起，科创债在交易所层面落地，标志着"技术属性资本化"的制度化推进。然而科创主体不同于 传统债券主体，投资科创债的逻辑也完全不同于投资传统信用债，原有的传统信用评级研究体系不再适 用。 传统的信用研究主要包括财务比率分析模型、对数几率回归与概率单位回归等违约预测模型。开展研究 的主体主要有两类：一是商业性评级机构，由发行人付费评级；二是投资主体内部研究团队，他们基于 财务数据与内部 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - COMEX gold futures closed down on November 17, with December delivery gold futures reported at $4070.6 per ounce, a decrease of $23.6 [1] - Spot gold prices also experienced a slight decline during the early trading session in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Economic Data Release - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the delayed September employment report will be released on November 20, and the inflation-adjusted wage data for September will be published on November 21, both at 7:30 AM Central Time [3] - These reports are expected to provide insights into the U.S. economic conditions, although they may be more lagging than usual [3] Group 3: Market Risks and Warnings - Bond investment giant Jeffrey Gundlach issued a stern warning about significant risks lurking in the stock and financial markets, citing rampant "junk bonds" and severe valuation distortions [3] - Gundlach, known as the "Bond King" of Wall Street, emphasized the need for investors to hold cash and avoid private credit, suggesting that 20% of investment funds should be allocated to cash to prepare for potential market crashes [3][4] - He expressed deep concerns about the $1.7 trillion private credit market, likening it to "junk loans" and warning it could trigger the next global market collapse [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The next upward target for December gold futures is to break the key resistance level of $4398.00 per ounce, while the recent downward target is to push prices below the key support level of $4000.00 per ounce [4] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the overnight high of $4107.60 per ounce and then at $4150.00 per ounce; initial support levels are at the overnight low of $4051.10 per ounce and last Friday's low of $4032.60 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy demonstrates resilience despite tariff disruptions, with China's market benefiting from net exports and a shift in household savings, presenting investment opportunities [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The global GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to exceed earlier predictions due to demand-driven factors like inventory replenishment and export competition, although a slowdown is anticipated in 2026 [1][3]. - Fiscal policies and labor market resilience are crucial for sustaining economic stability, with major economies increasing counter-cyclical measures [3][4]. Trade Dynamics - Recent U.S.-China trade developments, including the cancellation of certain tariffs, provide temporary relief, while the global supply chain is undergoing a restructuring towards high-value industries returning to the U.S. and low-value production moving to emerging markets [4][6]. Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of Chinese household savings shifting towards equity-like assets, with a reported increase of 73.7 trillion yuan in deposits from December 2019 to September 2025, reflecting a 55% growth [6][7]. - The Chinese technology sector, particularly in AI, chips, and automation, is highlighted as globally scarce and a key investment focus, emphasizing the importance of long-term commercial viability over short-term valuation [6][7]. Fixed Income Market - The global investment-grade bond market is experiencing significant inflows, with a historical net inflow recorded in August 2025, driven by institutional investors seeking yield [4][6]. - The current yield on global investment-grade bonds has risen to 4%-5%, providing stable returns and risk diversification during stock market volatility [6][7]. Asset Allocation Strategy - A diversified investment strategy across regions, asset classes, and industries is recommended to capitalize on technological advancements and capital rotation while mitigating risks associated with single markets [7]. - The ongoing opening of channels like Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to accelerate foreign investment in Chinese assets, leveraging China's cost advantages and potential for widespread application [7].

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over budget deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. government debt market has solidified its position as the most trusted sovereign debt asset globally, with significant inflows from investors driving a rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at $30 trillion, has seen investment returns of approximately 6% this year, heading towards its best performance since 2020 [2]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has surged despite previous bearish sentiments, attributed to controlled inflation under high interest rates and a shift towards short-term bonds by the Treasury [5][14]. - The "cleanest dirty shirt" analogy is used to describe the U.S. as a relatively better investment choice compared to other developed nations facing similar fiscal challenges [5][20]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have contributed to lower borrowing costs and increased returns on U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4% [6][25]. - Concerns about a potential recession due to trade wars have led to a flight to safety, with investors flocking to U.S. Treasuries [7][8]. - The U.S. Treasury's increased revenue from tariffs and a focus on reducing budget deficits have also played a role in the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased significantly compared to other G7 countries, where long-term borrowing costs have risen due to fiscal concerns [21][25]. - The U.S. remains the largest and most liquid fixed-income market globally, making it a preferred choice for foreign investors despite ongoing economic uncertainties [5][20][28]. - The overall environment in the U.S. market, while chaotic, still presents competitive opportunities for investors compared to other industrialized economies [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market is expected to stabilize rather than deteriorate sharply, allowing for a defensive stance in bond investments, particularly favoring U.S. Treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds with maturities of no more than five years, and Agency MBS [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a "soft landing," with slowing growth and easing inflation pressures, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate remains to promote full employment and stabilize prices [1] - In Europe, there are differing economic outlooks among countries, leading to a more favorable view on European corporate bonds, although careful selection of opportunities is emphasized [1] Group 2 - Given the current unattractive yields on sovereign bonds, the fund primarily invests in high-quality global corporate bonds, maintaining an average credit quality of BBB+ as of September 30, 2025 [2] - The fund also considers emerging market bonds due to less hawkish monetary policies, which can enhance bond portfolio yields and provide a more diversified and flexible asset allocation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "widow trade," previously a losing strategy in Japan's bond market, has transformed into one of the most profitable bets in 2023 as Japanese government bonds face significant sell-offs, leading to a total return loss exceeding 4% this year, making it the worst-performing government bond globally [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Japan's bond market is experiencing its most severe sell-off in decades, driven by repeated interest rate hike expectations and concerns over potential large-scale fiscal stimulus from the new Prime Minister [1][5]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historical high this month, with Goldman Sachs labeling Japan as a "net exporter of bearish shocks" in the global bond market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly adopting short positions on Japanese government bonds, with strategies focusing on shorting five-year bonds as a primary execution method [4][5]. - Western Asset Management has maintained a short duration strategy in the Japanese bond market, while RBC BlueBay Asset Management has recently established positions betting on the decline of 10-year Japanese government bond prices [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's core inflation rate has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2% target over the past three years, despite a series of interest rate hikes, indicating that Japanese rates remain low by global standards [5][6]. - Japan holds the highest government debt-to-GDP ratio among developed countries, raising concerns about fiscal policy and its implications for bond yields [5][6]. Group 4: Political Landscape - The new Prime Minister, who has promised cash subsidies and tax cuts, has raised concerns about fiscal expansion pushing long-term yields higher, amidst a backdrop of political instability [1][7]. - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition has plunged Japan into a significant political crisis, further complicating the bond market outlook [1][7].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin its monetary easing program, prompting a focus on Treasuries and domestic debt, but opportunities exist outside the U.S. borders [1] Group 1: Emerging Markets Debt - Emerging markets debt is highlighted as a compelling investment opportunity for 2025, accessible through ETFs like the Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF (NEMD) [2] - NEMD has transitioned from a 12-year open-end mutual fund to an ETF, benefiting from favorable conditions for emerging markets bonds, including a weak U.S. dollar [3] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Interest Rates - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to resume a cyclical downturn, influenced by structural pressures such as high real effective exchange rate valuations and large twin deficits [4] - Current conditions favor emerging markets debt, particularly local currency debt, as higher rates and a stronger dollar typically increase financing costs for issuers in developing countries [5][6] Group 3: Investment Returns - Emerging markets local debt is projected to yield returns above 11% over the next 12 months, driven by high-yielding government bonds from countries like Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Hungary, India, Turkey, and Egypt [7] - Mexico and South Africa are significant geographic exposures within the NEMD portfolio [8]

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO suggests that the Federal Reserve should consider halting the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings to support the U.S. housing market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Since the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the Federal Reserve has been gradually reducing its MBS holdings through quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The Fed has allowed the principal and interest payments from MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds [1] Group 2: Impact on Mortgage Market - PIMCO reports that the continuous reduction of MBS holdings over the past three years has led to an "abnormally wide" mortgage spread, which is the difference between Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - As of last Friday, this spread was approximately 230 basis points, nearing historical highs [1] - This situation has contributed to an increase in the average rate for the most common 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which currently stands at 6.35% [1] Group 3: Proposed Solutions - PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Sedna, and others argue that reinvesting the principal and interest payments from MBS could have a similar or even better effect on lowering mortgage rates compared to rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has turned downward from a 17-year high, with strong demand observed in the latest auction, indicating a potential easing of investor concerns regarding a sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds [1][4][8] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.60%, after reaching 1.625% on Monday, which is close to the highest level since 2008 [1][4] - The auction results showed a significant increase in the bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year bonds, rising from 3.06 to 3.92, indicating robust demand compared to the average over the past 12 months [1][4] Group 2 - The successful issuance of the bonds has alleviated global investor anxiety about a potential sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds, which had been under pressure due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and government spending [4][8] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor reiterated the established monetary policy path to raise the benchmark interest rate when conditions allow, without indicating when this might occur [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming auction of 30-year bonds, which could impact secondary market demand for bonds [6][7] Group 3 - Political uncertainty remains a concern, as the ruling party is set to release a report on its recent electoral losses, which could affect the stability of Prime Minister Kishida [6][7] - The market is speculating on potential changes in leadership within the ruling party, which could influence long-term bond yields [7][8] - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds appears to be driven by expectations of a potential reduction in the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following discussions with primary dealers [7][8]