Core Viewpoint - The recent harvests in Argentina and Australia, along with rising expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, have intensified supply pressures, leading to a continued decline in U.S. wheat futures, which are hovering near their lowest levels since late October [1] Market Information - As of December 14, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is projected at 10.5 million tons, down from 10.8 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 5 million tons, significantly higher than 2.1 million tons in the previous year [1] - The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that the winter wheat planting area for the 2026 harvest season will reach 4.56 million hectares, a 2.3% increase from 2025, but slightly below the five-year average [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending December 11, 2025, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 488,025 tons, revised from 396,058 tons the previous week [1] - For the current crop year, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume stands at 14,124,803 tons, compared to 11,578,252 tons in the same period last year [1] - Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consulting, reported that the offshore price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content was $228 per ton in the second half of January, an increase of $0.5 from the previous week [1]

Market Insights - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed up by 2% due to short covering [1] - As of the week ending September 19, CBOT wheat deliverable stocks were 56.406 million bushels, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week and a decrease of 2.94% from the same period last year [1] EU Export Data - According to the European Commission, the EU's barley export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 1.85 million tons, up from 1.52 million tons last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 4.12 million tons, down from 6.13 million tons last year [1] Crop Progress Report - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that as of September 21, the U.S. spring wheat harvest rate was 96%, below market expectations of 97%, and slightly above the previous week's 94% [1] - The winter wheat planting rate was reported at 20%, below market expectations of 22%, and up from 11% the previous week [1] - The winter wheat emergence rate remained at 4%, consistent with the same period last year and the five-year average [1]