当全球日成交量高达9.6万亿美元的外汇市场突然转向，最先感受到刺骨寒意的，是年初那群坚信美元 必跌的投资者。过去两周，彭博美元即期指数悄悄攀至两个月高位，一举抹去2024年上半年逾一半跌 幅；曾经最拥挤的做空交易，正演变成一场多头对空头的逼仓屠杀。 一、从降息叙事到美元叙事的急转弯 四、空头仍大而不倒，痛苦指数飙升 然而，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新持仓报告显示，截至9月24日当周，杠杆基金与资产管理 公司合计仍持有约210亿美元的净美元空头，规模虽较6月峰值腰斩，但绝对值仍处历史高位。 分析人士警告，一旦经济数据继续打脸激进降息预期，空头回补可能触发逼空螺旋——每上涨1%，将 迫使约30亿美元空头止损；而美元权重货币的政治风险短期难散，燃料依旧充足。 年初，华尔街几乎一致认定：美联储将连续降息，利差收窄将碾碎美元。期货定价显示，交易员当时押 注年内至少降息100个基点。然而，9月会议纪要释放谨慎信号，叠加劳工市场数据意外坚挺，联邦基金 利率路径被剧烈重定价，仅余两次25个基点降息的残羹。 ColumbiaThreadneedle高级基金经理EdAl-Hussainy坦言：市场把降息想得太浪漫，可如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has shown remarkable resilience in the face of challenges such as trade tensions, economic slowdown, and valuation concerns, achieving record highs and maintaining a long streak without significant declines [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a 2% drop since April, marking the longest streak since July 2024, with a cumulative increase of 34% and a market capitalization rise of nearly $16 trillion [1][4]. - The index has reached 28 all-time highs this year, despite rising unemployment rates and inflation concerns [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 50 basis point reduction by 2025 being largely priced in [5][6]. - Recent fund inflows into the U.S. stock market reached nearly $58 billion in a single week, the largest weekly inflow of the year [6]. Group 3: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has defied the historical trend of poor performance in September, driven by short covering, with the most shorted stocks rising 14% this month [7][8]. - The relative strength index (RSI) for the most shorted stocks has reached its highest level since early 2021, indicating potential overbought conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Volatility and Risk Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is significantly below its ten-year average, suggesting low investor fear and complacency [9]. - There is a notable increase in net short positions on the VIX, indicating that investors are betting on continued market calm, which may signal a potential pause in the upward trend [9].

Core Viewpoint - US stock investors are exhibiting remarkable calm despite trade tensions, economic slowdown, and high valuations, with the S&P 500 index reaching new historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a single-day drop of at least 2% for 107 consecutive trading days, marking the longest period of stability since July 2024 [1] - The index has risen 34% since early April, with a market capitalization increase of nearly $16 trillion [1] - The S&P 500 has set 28 new historical highs this year, despite the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are currently willing to overlook negative news, but complacency poses a risk to the stock market's upward trend [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a cumulative 50 basis points cut by 2025 already priced in [2] - Strong consumer spending and robust corporate earnings are contributing to a positive outlook for the market [6] Group 3: Short Covering - Short covering has emerged as a significant driver of the current market stability, with a basket of heavily shorted stocks rising 14% this month, outperforming the S&P 500's 3% increase [3][4] - The relative strength index (RSI) for this basket has reached its highest overbought level since the meme stock craze in early 2021, indicating potential short-term price correction risks [4] Group 4: Volatility Indicators - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently well below its 10-year average and remains under the critical 20-point threshold, suggesting a lack of concern among traders [6] - Hedge funds and large speculative institutions are increasingly betting on a continuation of low volatility, with net short positions in the VIX reaching their highest level since August 2022 [6] - Despite signs indicating a potential market pause, the S&P 500 still has significant room for upward movement, as market enthusiasm has not reached extreme levels [6]

Market Insights - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed up by 2% due to short covering [1] - As of the week ending September 19, CBOT wheat deliverable stocks were 56.406 million bushels, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week and a decrease of 2.94% from the same period last year [1] EU Export Data - According to the European Commission, the EU's barley export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 1.85 million tons, up from 1.52 million tons last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 4.12 million tons, down from 6.13 million tons last year [1] Crop Progress Report - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that as of September 21, the U.S. spring wheat harvest rate was 96%, below market expectations of 97%, and slightly above the previous week's 94% [1] - The winter wheat planting rate was reported at 20%, below market expectations of 22%, and up from 11% the previous week [1] - The winter wheat emergence rate remained at 4%, consistent with the same period last year and the five-year average [1]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 29, with corn December contract closing at $4.20 per bushel, up 10.25 cents or 2.5% from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat December contract closed at $5.34 per bushel, up 5.25 cents or 0.99%, while soybean November contract closed at $10.55 per bushel, up 6.5 cents or 0.62% [1] - The corn December contract broke through the 50-day moving average, prompting funds to cover short positions ahead of the Labor Day holiday, significantly boosting corn prices [1] Group 2 - Market analysts express skepticism about the corn December contract's ability to break through the resistance level of $4.20 due to increasing sales of new crop corn, suggesting that the rebound may present new selling opportunities [1] - Wheat futures followed the upward trend of corn prices [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported disappointing figures for soybean oil consumption in diesel production, with June consumption at 1.045 billion pounds, only a 20 million pound increase from May and a 94 million pound decrease from the same month last year [1] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has not released export reports for five consecutive days [2] - Weather forecasts indicate increased rainfall in the western and northern parts of the Midwest after September 2, with expected coverage of 40% to 50% in the eastern Midwest [2] - Cooler weather is anticipated over the next ten days [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, and DCE soybean meal may rebound; DCE soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a rebound [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day - session of the reporting day) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices** - DCE soybeans 2511 closed at 3999 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 23 yuan (-0.57%), and 3995 yuan/ton at night - session, down 18 yuan (-0.45%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3113 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 33 yuan (-1.05%), and 3105 yuan/ton at night - session, down 23 yuan (-0.74%) [1]. - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1055 cents/bushel, up 19.5 cents (+1.88%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 293.8 dollars/short - ton, down 3.2 dollars (-1.08%) [1]. - **Spot Basis** - In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal has different ranges and changes for different months, mostly remaining flat or with minor adjustments [1]. - In East China, the spot basis of soybean meal also shows different levels for different months, remaining mostly flat [1]. - In South China, the spot basis of soybean meal varies by region and month, with some prices down 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data** - The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.8 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 9.55 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 97.4 million tons per week on the previous trading week, compared with 96.09 million tons two trading weeks ago [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On August 21, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.9%, driven by short - covering and bargain - hunting. However, the good growth of the US soybean crop and the heavy supply outlook still overshadow the market [3]. - The results of the third - day of the Midwest crop inspection showed that the soybean yield potential in Illinois and western Iowa was above average. Traders are waiting for the report of the fourth - day inspection [3]. - The USDA's weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending August 14, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season decreased by 5,700 tons, while the net sales in the 2025/26 season were 1,142,600 tons, exceeding market expectations [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares is primarily due to internal consolidation needs after significant prior gains, weak fundamental outlook for heavyweight sectors affected by "price wars," and better marginal liquidity improvement in the A-share market [3][4][5] - As of August 15, 2025, the Hang Seng Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 25.97%, ranking second among major global indices, only behind the Korean Composite Index's 34.43% [4][5] - The report suggests that the current market environment remains favorable for Hong Kong stocks, with potential opportunities for recovery in sectors such as technology and consumer goods, especially as negative expectations have been priced in [3][4][36] Market Analysis - The report highlights that since mid-July, there has been a notable downward adjustment in earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index, particularly in the internet sector, which has been significantly impacted by intensified "price wars" [4][5][36] - The liquidity environment in the A-share market has improved more significantly than in the Hong Kong market since June, contributing to A-shares outperforming Hong Kong stocks [5][36] - The report emphasizes that the current phase of underperformance in Hong Kong stocks is viewed as a temporary consolidation following rapid prior gains, with a favorable setup for potential investment in heavyweight sectors like technology and consumer goods [4][36] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the upcoming earnings reports during the Hong Kong mid-year reporting season will reflect the previously priced-in factors, potentially leading to a positive adjustment in market expectations [36] - It notes that the "anti-involution" policies are being implemented, with industry associations and companies advocating for the regulation of low-price subsidies, indicating a shift in the policy and social atmosphere [36] - The report concludes that as the influence of mainland investors on the Hong Kong market continues to grow, the sentiment from the A-share market is likely to transmit to Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a potential for both markets to experience a bull market together [36]

Group 1 - Foreign capital is accelerating its purchase of Chinese stocks, driven primarily by long positions, with a buy-to-cover ratio of approximately 9:1 [1][3] - The A-share market has reached a historical high with nearly 3 trillion in trading volume, but many investors feel anxious as their stocks are not participating in the rally [1] - High-frequency buying by hedge funds has led to a 4.9% overweight in Chinese markets compared to the MSCI World Index, with Chinese stocks making up 5.8% of total positions and 7.3% of net positions [3] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "chasing gains and missing out" is prevalent among retail investors, who often feel anxious during rapid market increases [4] - Many retail investors react to market trends without understanding the underlying intentions of capital flows, leading to a vicious cycle of fear and missed opportunities [4] Group 3 - Market trading behaviors extend beyond simple buying and selling, with "profit-taking" and "short covering" being significant indicators of market sentiment [5] - Observing "profit-taking" can signal potential market peaks, while "short covering" often indicates market bottoms [6][10] Group 4 - The rationale behind foreign capital's aggressive buying includes improved policy environments, better-than-expected economic data, and attractive valuation levels, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF trading at a P/E ratio of only 11.41, significantly lower than the global average [11] Group 5 - Retail investors are advised to focus on understanding the essence of trading rather than blindly following market trends, emphasizing the importance of observing real capital movements [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Arabica coffee futures in New York has risen to its highest level in two months due to concerns over multiple rounds of low temperatures and light frost in Brazil, a major coffee-producing region [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The most active futures contract saw a price increase of up to 2.6% on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of price rises, potentially setting a record for the longest streak since April [1] - The recent price rebound is attributed to lower-than-expected export volumes from Brazil, along with frost weather in key coffee-growing areas [1] Group 2: Production Forecast - Analysts predict that Brazil's coffee production this year may fall below expectations due to adverse weather conditions, with concerns extending to the 2026 harvest as well [1] - A survey by Coffee Trading Academy estimates that Brazil's total production of Arabica and Robusta coffee for the 2025-2026 season will reach 63.9 million bags (each bag weighing 60 kg), a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent cold weather has led to an early flowering period, raising concerns about future coffee yields [1] - Despite the recent price increase, some analysts suggest that the rebound may have lost momentum due to a significant drop in trading volume over the past week [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound; Dalian soybean futures are expected to rebound and fluctuate [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybean is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend for the main - contract futures prices on the day - trading session of the report date [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4056 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.37%), and up 24 yuan (+0.59%) to 4068 yuan/ton during the night session. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3137 yuan/ton during the day session, down 27 yuan (-0.85%), and up 5 yuan (+0.16%) to 3142 yuan/ton during the night session. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042.75 cents/bushel, up 14.25 cents (+1.39%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 294.3 dollars/short - ton, down 0.7 dollars (-0.24%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal (43%) is 3060 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In East China, the price of soybean meal is 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In South China, the price range of soybean meal is 3040 - 3070 yuan/ton, with the price down 60 yuan to flat compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 2.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.15 million tons per day two trading days ago. - The inventory of soybean meal was 96.09 million tons per week, and the data for the previous trading day was not available [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 15, CBOT soybean futures closed moderately higher, supported by active short - covering before the weekend. The price rose 5.6% this week, the first weekly increase in four weeks and the largest single - week increase since early April, mainly due to the USDA's soybean yield forecast being lower than market expectations. - The NOPA reported that the US soybean crushing volume in July reached a record 195.7 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%, higher than market expectations and the highest level since January, which provided additional support for soybean futures. - However, due to the trade tension between the US and China, the largest buyer, the new - crop export demand was weak, limiting the price increase [3].