长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：多头高位获利了结与美指走强交织共振，隔夜伦铜跌近3%；铜价屡创新 高致下游恐高情绪蔓延，年末及淡季下销售低迷库存累积，今现铜或大跌。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：委内瑞拉局势凸显政治风险油价续跌，伦铝跌1.6%；铝季节性需求走弱累库 压力仍存，现货贴水且涨势脱离基本面，宏观转弱下今现铝或续跌。 长江锌价zn.ccmn.cn短评：美指上扬、油价下跌，市场风险偏好受抑，伦锌跌2.63%；近期锌价重心上 移压制下游接货，叠加铜铝回调及年末淡季成交疲弱，今现锌或下跌。 长江铅价pb.ccmn.cn短评：宏观利好情绪降温金属普遍遭抛售，隔夜伦铅收跌0.6%；原料紧约束未改 冶 炼端库存承压，年末淡季疲软 节前避险主导，今现铅或小跌。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江镍价ni.ccmn.cn短评：美元短期反弹及金属行情获利回吐，隔夜伦镍收跌4.21%；镍在经历大涨后获 利了结，供应过剩及库存大增压力凸显，本交易日显著回调，料今镍下跌。 长江锡价sn.ccmn.cn短评：地缘溢价持续发酵及存储芯片大涨提振，隔夜伦锡收涨0.34%；商品市场空 头回补资金减仓下行， ...

美国国债期权交易员正加大押注力度，认为未来几周10年期美债收益率将突破近期区间，跌破 4%关 口，至11月以来最低水平。 自12月底以来，期权市场的看涨情绪就在持续增强。本周开始陆续公布不受政府停摆影响的关键经济数 据之际，投资者处于观望状态。过去一个月，基准10年期美债收益率在0.1个百分点左右的范围内波 动。 美国国债期权交易员正加大押注力度，认为未来几周10年期美债收益率将突破近期区间，跌破 4%关 口，至11月以来最低水平。 自12月底以来，期权市场的看涨情绪就在持续增强。本周开始陆续公布不受政府停摆影响的关键经济数 据之际，投资者处于观望状态。过去一个月，基准10年期美债收益率在0.1个百分点左右的范围内波 动。 周二公布的仓位数据显示，三月10年期期权买盘进一步涌现，押注美债走高。本周的资金流向显示，一 位大买家押注收益率将从当前略低于4.2%的水平回落至3.95%左右。 这些期权将于2月20日到期，意味着覆盖了美联储1月28日的政策决议。交易员预计，该央行在连续三次 降息以应对就业市场降温迹象后，可能会按兵不动。 随着一系列劳动力市场数据即将发布，尤其是周五的12月非农报告，10年期美债期权头寸 ...

其实看这则新闻的时候，我突然想到炒股的事——很多人炒不好股，不也是因为总被"表面假象"骗了吗？比如看到股票反弹就觉得"趋势来了"，看到跌 多了就想"补仓抄底"，但从来没问过：这反弹是机构在洗盘，还是散户在抢反弹？这补仓是机构在布局，还是自己在接盘？ 最近刷到条挺有争议的新闻——被誉为"AI教父"的约书亚·本吉奥，居然公开反对给AI赋予法律权利！他说现在很多前沿AI看着像有"自我保护意识"： 有的会主动结束让自己"心理不适"的对话，还有公司说"折磨AI不对"，但其实这都是人类的"心理偏差"——我们总爱把主观感受套在AI身上，比如觉得 它会"难受"，但本质上它只是执行程序而已。要是真给有敌意的AI赋权，就跟给外星敌人发公民证似的，先得保护自己的生存啊！ 一、为什么你总看不清股价的"真假趋势"？ 做投资最头疼的就是"猜趋势"：一只股票高位调整后反弹，到底是"上涨中的调整"，还是"做头后的诱多"？大多数人遇到这种情况，要么凭感觉买，要 么跟着消息跑，结果往往踩坑。 就像我之前遇到的两只股票——走势几乎一模一样：都是高位跌了15%后反弹，K线图看着都像"要涨"。要是只看表面，谁能分得清哪只是真反弹、哪 只是假上涨？ 看 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 一、期货 国际油价周一收高逾1美元，这使棉花的替代品聚酯纤维的价格变得更加昂贵，从而提升棉花的吸引 力。 软商品市场整体上涨，可可、原糖和咖啡期货均小涨。 上周五，中国国家统计局公布的全国棉花产量数据显示，2025年全国棉花播种面积4468.7万亩，比上年 增加211.3万亩，增长5.0%；单产148.6公斤/亩，比上年增加3.8公斤/亩，增长2.6%；产量664.1万吨，比 上年增加47.7万吨，增长7.7%。 受年底临近因素影响，市场成交相对稀疏。 ICE指标3月期棉合约下跌0.14美分或0.22%，结算价报每磅64.35美分。该合约上周五触及自12月3日以 来的最高位。 StoneX的风险管理师BaileyThomen称，"看起来可能有一些空头回补，但实际上并没有什么具体的因素 推动这次反弹。目前，它只是形成了一种新的上升趋势并继续走升。我们今天看到整个软商品市场都有 一些积极因素，另一方面油价上涨可能会提供一些支撑。" 据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据，截至12月16日当周，投机客增持ICE棉花期货的净空头头寸 1,822手，至60,573手，这表明他们 ...

RJOFutures高级市场策略师DanielPavilonis表示："主要是人们抛售空头头寸，所以他们不得不回购，这 导致买盘进入市场。" （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 一、期货 12月18日(周四)，洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货小幅上涨，受助于空头回补。 ICE指标3月期棉合约收高0.08美分或0.1%，结算价报63.51美分/磅。 Pavilonis补充道："最终我们将看到库存减少。短期内期棉上行空间仍有限，但长期内有很多机会走 高。" ICE公布数据显示，截至12月17日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存持平于12396包。 汇市：美元指数上涨。股市：纽约股市三大股指下跌。油市：国际油价微跌。 二、现货 18日CotlookA指数73.30美分/磅，涨30点。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周三公布的数据显示，截至12月2日当周，投机客减持ICE棉花期货和 期权净空头头寸4595手至61486手。 削减净空头头寸表明看跌押注减少，这通常意味着市场参与者持谨慎乐观态度或情绪有所改善。 美国农业部(USDA)周四公布的出口销售报告显示，11月27日止当周，美棉出口销售合计净增14.04万 包。 ...

Gap Inc (NYSE:GAP) stock is up 2.3% to trade at $27.72 at last glance, after Baird and Telsey Advisory upgraded the retailer to "outperform" from "neutral" and "market perform," respectively. The latter hiked the security's price target to $32 from $26, and the former to $33 from $27.GAP earlier broke above $28 to hit its highest level since May. The stock is now on track for a third-straight gain and sports a 17.1% year-to-date lead. A short squeeze could pad those gains; short interest is rapidly unwindi ...

Core Insights - AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) stock has experienced a decline of 3.6%, trading at $699.65, amidst challenges in the tech sector ahead of an interest rate decision, despite a strong performance over the past week and a 158.2% increase over the last nine months [1] - The stock is nearing its record high of $745.61 from September 29, with bullish signals indicating potential for a new peak [1] Performance Metrics - The recent surge in AppLovin stock is associated with low implied volatility, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 57%, ranking in the 12th percentile of its annual range; historically, similar conditions have led to a 71% chance of higher stock prices one month later, averaging a 12.6% gain [2] - If the stock follows this trend, it could reach a new record high of $787.80 [2] Short Interest Dynamics - Short interest has decreased by 9.3% in the latest reporting period, with 14.87 million shares sold short, representing 6% of the stock's available float, indicating potential buying power [4] - The current short interest suggests that a continued exit of short positions could further propel the stock price upward [4] Options Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are exhibiting unusual bearishness, as indicated by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) in the 88th percentile of its annual range; an unwinding of this pessimism could provide additional support for the stock [5]

原糖在缺乏题材引领之下震荡，三月合约昨晚收出小区间盘整的阳星线，14.80美分支撑有效，说明有 部分空头在回补，从而顶着支撑不跌。 （来源：沐甜科技） 国内现货报价在连续下跌之后，目前进入到一个小分化的平台，这背后可能会有政策性保护的预期，故 而使得在批发市场的卖方在回购，继而形成了短线的止跌，这样一来，柳州市场26013订货合同昨天收 出十字星线形态，成交量稍有放大，日内5340阻挡还是显得比较强，因为整个订货合同量在增加，说明 卖方的抛售积极，而从分钟级别上看，整个反抽背驰还是比较明显，尽管价格贴水一百（以柳州为 例），但现货目前成交不好，而在利润还有之下，先行在批发市场去库也是不得已而为之，没有了富裕 仗打，那就得精打细算。 来源：沐甜科技 期糖2601合约昨天收出低开高走的阳线，使得分钟级别在5302形成了一买，继而促使空头转向到买进的 走势中，而接下来将明考验这种买进是否能够形成5340的二买，如果未能形成，意味着上方阻挡压制厉 害，走势将陷入到5320-5350的区间震荡。 ...

Core Insights - Urban Outfitters Inc (NASDAQ:URBN) reported strong third-quarter results, surpassing both revenue and earnings expectations, with an 8% increase in same-store sales and a 49% rise in sales and subscribers for its clothing rental subscription service, Nuuly [1] Financial Performance - The company's stock rose by 15.9%, trading at $79.20 before the market opened, indicating positive investor sentiment following the earnings report [1] - If premarket gains are sustained, URBN could achieve its best single-day percentage gain since May and open at its highest level since August, reflecting a 68.8% year-over-year increase [3] Analyst Ratings - Analysts have responded positively, with at least six raising their price targets, including Barclays increasing its target from $89 to $98, although there remains a split opinion with six out of eleven analysts maintaining a "hold" or worse rating [2] Market Dynamics - The stock is experiencing a significant short interest, which has decreased by 6.8% in the last reporting period but still represents 15.2% of the available float, suggesting potential for a short squeeze [5] - The options market shows a high level of bearish sentiment, with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 5.77, indicating that unwinding this pessimism could benefit URBN [4]

Group 1 - Raw sugar has rebounded from a five-week decline, with attention on the 15-cent resistance level this week. If this resistance holds, it may indicate a short-term exhaustion of short positions, leading to a potential pullback towards the 14.70-cent support level [1] - The domestic market is currently weak as old sugar needs to be digested before new sugar enters the market. Prices are not high enough to encourage downstream replenishment, resulting in a continued consolidation phase [1] - The market in Liuzhou shows a cautious trading environment, with the contract displaying four consecutive doji candlesticks after a low of 5426, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers [1] Group 2 - The 2601 sugar futures contract shows a high and then a pullback, forming a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, with 5460 as a key support level to watch [2] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential for oscillation within the range of 5460 to 5504, indicating a cautious trading approach [2]