1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Market Overview - The US stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.61% and achieving a cumulative increase of 4.7% in October, marking its seventh consecutive monthly gain [1] - Amazon's stock surged over 9%, reaching an all-time high [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.53%, ending a previous five-month decline with a cumulative drop of 4.19% in October [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures experienced slight increases, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 0.68% to settle at $60.98 per barrel, reflecting a cumulative decline of 3.89% in October [2] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.11% to $65.07 per barrel, with a cumulative drop of 4.26% in October [2] - Gold prices saw a slight decrease of 0.51%, settling at $4004.02 per ounce, while cumulative gains for October stood at 3.74% [3] Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - Bank of America strategists indicated that gold and Chinese stocks are the best hedging tools against the AI boom, as the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 23 times, significantly above the 20-year average of 16 times [14] - Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding excessive interest rate cuts, indicating that the path forward for monetary policy should be data-driven [11][12]

Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the holiday week, with the MSCI global index up 0.8%, and Taiwan and Korea indices leading with gains of 3.6% each [2][5] - The US stock market saw slight increases in major indices, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [5][7] - In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined, while government bond yields in several other countries also fell [10][12] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.7, while the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.1% to 7.14 [16][18] Overseas Economic Developments Monetary Policy in the US and Europe - There is a divergence in views regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating caution [18][20] - The European Central Bank's president indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is lower than expected, with inflation in the Eurozone remaining stable at around 2% [20][36] US Economic Indicators - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, with the leisure and hospitality sector seeing the largest declines [22][24] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50%, indicating weak business activity and continued pressure on employment [24][26] - The US housing market shows signs of recovery, with new home sales increasing by 20.5% month-on-month, although home prices remain under pressure [29][31] Government Shutdown Impact - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, may last over a week, affecting the release of key economic data [27][31] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns can slightly impact GDP growth, with estimates indicating a reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week [31][34] Commodity Market Trends - Global commodity prices, excluding oil, generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 4.2% [14][16] - Precious metals also saw increases, with COMEX gold up 2.7% and silver up 3.9% during the holiday week [14][16] Regional Economic Insights - Eurozone inflation remains stable, with a CPI increase to 2.2% in September, driven mainly by service costs [36][37] - Japan's political landscape is shifting with the election of the first female president of the ruling party, who is expected to continue a conservative policy approach [37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

Market Insights - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed up by 2% due to short covering [1] - As of the week ending September 19, CBOT wheat deliverable stocks were 56.406 million bushels, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week and a decrease of 2.94% from the same period last year [1] EU Export Data - According to the European Commission, the EU's barley export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 1.85 million tons, up from 1.52 million tons last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for 2025/26 is projected at 4.12 million tons, down from 6.13 million tons last year [1] Crop Progress Report - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that as of September 21, the U.S. spring wheat harvest rate was 96%, below market expectations of 97%, and slightly above the previous week's 94% [1] - The winter wheat planting rate was reported at 20%, below market expectations of 22%, and up from 11% the previous week [1] - The winter wheat emergence rate remained at 4%, consistent with the same period last year and the five-year average [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].