Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1 - Hedge funds reduced their net short position in CBOT soybeans during the week of July 22 [1] - The net short position in CBOT corn has expanded [1] - The net short position in CBOT wheat reached an eight-month low [1] Group 2 - The net long position in CBOT soybean oil reached a two-month high [1] - The net long position in orange juice reached a 19-week high [1] - The net long position in lean hogs reached a seven-week low [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that CBOT wheat prices increased by 3.0%, reaching 549.75 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Group 1 - CBOT wheat experienced an intraday increase of 3.0%, reaching 542.5 cents per bushel [1] - The Bloomberg Grain Index rose over 1.8%, hitting a new daily high and approaching 31.08 points [1] - The surge in the grain index was significantly influenced by Trump's biofuel policy proposals, which also led to a notable increase at the opening of the U.S. stock market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CBOT wheat futures experienced a decline of 2.5%, settling at 528.5 cents per bushel [1] Group 1 - The decline in wheat prices indicates potential volatility in the agricultural commodities market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic policies and credit rating changes in the U.S., highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the commodity markets and U.S. debt dynamics. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating and Debt Dynamics - On May 16, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first downgrade in 108 years [2]. - The downgrade triggered a re-evaluation of U.S. Treasury risks, leading to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields rising by 3 basis points and 30-year yields by 10 basis points [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach $1.7 trillion for FY2023, approximately 6.3% of GDP, creating a vicious cycle of rising interest rates and expanding deficits [8]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Implications - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" fiscal policy aims to extend tax cuts and increase defense spending while raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, potentially increasing federal debt by $3.06 trillion over the next decade [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with about one-third being short-term debt, which poses refinancing risks as interest rates rise [9]. - The current fiscal pressure is the most severe since the 1980s, with interest payments potentially exceeding military spending, impacting infrastructure and healthcare budgets [11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - The article notes that the current "stagflation" state in the U.S. economy is likely to persist, leading to downward pressure on commodity prices, particularly for financial commodities [13]. - Recent fluctuations in oil prices indicate a pessimistic demand environment, despite temporary supply shocks [17]. - In the agricultural sector, there is a bullish sentiment for corn and wheat due to supply constraints, while the soybean oil market faces limitations on price increases due to fiscal constraints [20][21]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The article highlights the impact of U.S.-China interest rate differentials on the RMB, with current U.S. rates around 4.5% compared to China's 1%-2% [23]. - A potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB, which may attract global capital towards Chinese assets [23].