农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米增仓上行，玉米主力合约持仓增加 8 万余手，期价延续上行。春节过 | | | | 后，玉米现货补涨。因节后玉米期货表现较强，对现货市场有一定的影响，北港 | | | | 收购价格略高于节前。东北产区玉米价格在北港上涨以及运费下调的情况下也出 | | | | 现小幅度的上涨，但鉴于节后刚开市，市场购销暂不活跃。 华北地区玉米价格 | | | 玉米 | 稳中偏强运行。部分企业延续假期的上涨趋势，继续上调 10 元/吨。基层粮点陆 | 震荡偏强 | | | 续开工收购，但收购量恢复需要一定时间，基层购销活跃度不高，但部分贸易商 | | | | 顺价收购。技术上，节后玉米市场期现共振，期价上行，多头持仓可继续持有观 | | | | 望。 | | | | | 震荡 | | | 周三，CBOT 大豆触及三个月新高，因市场对美国对中国销售的预期升温。中方 对特朗普最新关税举措的克制回应以及中国假期结束，维持了市场对需求增长的 | | | | 预期。另外，美国环保署将于周三向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent harvests in Argentina and Australia, along with rising expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, have intensified supply pressures, leading to a continued decline in U.S. wheat futures, which are hovering near their lowest levels since late October [1] Market Information - As of December 14, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is projected at 10.5 million tons, down from 10.8 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 5 million tons, significantly higher than 2.1 million tons in the previous year [1] - The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that the winter wheat planting area for the 2026 harvest season will reach 4.56 million hectares, a 2.3% increase from 2025, but slightly below the five-year average [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending December 11, 2025, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 488,025 tons, revised from 396,058 tons the previous week [1] - For the current crop year, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume stands at 14,124,803 tons, compared to 11,578,252 tons in the same period last year [1] - Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consulting, reported that the offshore price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content was $228 per ton in the second half of January, an increase of $0.5 from the previous week [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia and Bahrain will establish a hub for the sale of Russian wheat [1] Group 2 - This initiative indicates a strategic partnership between Russia and Bahrain in the agricultural sector [1] - The establishment of the wheat sales hub may enhance Russia's export capabilities and market reach in the Middle East [1]

Energy - Petrobras, the Brazilian state oil company, has lowered diesel prices [2] - EU officials announced that the European Commission will propose a legal ban on imports of natural gas and LNG from Russia by the end of 2027 [2] - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price for June Arab Light crude oil to the US at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus sour crude benchmark, and to Asia at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [2] - Apollo Global Management's economist Torsten Slok indicated that the significant drop in oil prices may lead US producers to cut production and potentially seek layoffs [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish structural outlook on gold, forecasting a price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [3] - The Reserve Bank of India reported holding 879.59 tons of gold as part of its foreign exchange reserves as of March 31, with domestic holdings at 511.99 tons [3] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has initiated a new round of dialogue with rebel groups [3] - The President of Peru announced a curfew in areas where miners were killed, leading to a 30-day suspension of all mining activities in the Pataz region [3] Agriculture - Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR reported that the FOB price for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% fell by $2 to $247 per ton from late March to early April [4] - Kazakhstan plans to increase sunflower planting area by 9.5% by 2025 to diversify its crops [4] - The Thai Ministry of Commerce aims to achieve a rice export target of 7.5 million tons this year [4] Trade Policy - India proposed to implement reciprocal zero tariffs on a certain quantity of US auto parts and steel [5] - Sources revealed that the US recently rejected Japan's request for a comprehensive exemption from the 10% reciprocal tariffs and tariffs targeting specific countries [5]