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欧线集运期货合约(如EC2604
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集运早报-20260212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 03:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral with limited downside potential. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3][29]. - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large scope for price adjustment. Prudent operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the short - on - rallies strategy should be maintained [3][29]. - For new contracts, based on historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges for the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the current valuation on the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the node of the off - season transition, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3][29]. - Due to frequent capital liquidation operations before the Spring Festival holiday, significant market fluctuations are expected. Prudent operation is recommended this week [3][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 1177.9, 1275.3, 1501.0, 1719.9, 1581.0, 1240.0, 1105.0, and 1395.0 respectively, with price changes of - 0.09%, 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.08%, 0.30%, 0.40%, - 0.53%, and 1.09% [2][28]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 17204, 84, 14185, 42, 263, 64, 4, and 125 respectively. The open interests are 33027, 214, 14185, 119, 1371, 134, 8308, and 125 respectively, with changes of - 872, - 14, 14, - 45, 7, 237, and - 2 [2][28]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 are - 323.1, - 97.4, and 396.0 respectively, with daily changes of - 2.3, - 3.4, and 7.1, and weekly changes of - 23.1, and - 9.1 [2][28]. Spot (European Line) - **Spot Price and Index**: The spot price on 2026/2/9 is 1657.94, with a change of - 7.49% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index on 2026/2/6 is 1403 dollars/TEU, with a change of - 1.06% compared to the previous period [2][28]. - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 7, MSK opened at 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), PA was around 2000, MSC was 2140, and OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. Last week, MSC issued a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The European line price is expected to increase to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 dollars for the first week of March (Week 10), unchanged from the previous period [4][30]. Relevant News - On 2/11, the Iranian President stated that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to accept any form of inspection. On 2/12, the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said that Iran is in consultation with the US to determine the time for the next round of negotiations [5][31].