相关新闻 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/3/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1429.2 | 涨跌 16.73% | 基差 34.2 | 昨日成交量 81309 | | 昨日持仓量 46243 | 持仓变动 8998 | | | EC2605 EC2606 | | 1637.4 1885.1 | 16.53% 15.68% | -174.0 -421.7 | 2063 16174 | | 1294 20767 | 880 3680 | | | EC2607 | | 2094.2 | 14.01% | -630.8 | 402 | | 410 | 189 | | | EC2608 | | 1980.4 | 15.42% | -517.0 | 2610 | | 2102 | 723 | | | EC2609 | | 1497.5 | 16.07% | -34.1 | 326 | | 239 | 90 | | 期货 | EC2610 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral with limited downside potential. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3][29]. - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large scope for price adjustment. Prudent operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the short - on - rallies strategy should be maintained [3][29]. - For new contracts, based on historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges for the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the current valuation on the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the node of the off - season transition, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3][29]. - Due to frequent capital liquidation operations before the Spring Festival holiday, significant market fluctuations are expected. Prudent operation is recommended this week [3][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 1177.9, 1275.3, 1501.0, 1719.9, 1581.0, 1240.0, 1105.0, and 1395.0 respectively, with price changes of - 0.09%, 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.08%, 0.30%, 0.40%, - 0.53%, and 1.09% [2][28]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2612 are 17204, 84, 14185, 42, 263, 64, 4, and 125 respectively. The open interests are 33027, 214, 14185, 119, 1371, 134, 8308, and 125 respectively, with changes of - 872, - 14, 14, - 45, 7, 237, and - 2 [2][28]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 are - 323.1, - 97.4, and 396.0 respectively, with daily changes of - 2.3, - 3.4, and 7.1, and weekly changes of - 23.1, and - 9.1 [2][28]. Spot (European Line) - **Spot Price and Index**: The spot price on 2026/2/9 is 1657.94, with a change of - 7.49% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index on 2026/2/6 is 1403 dollars/TEU, with a change of - 1.06% compared to the previous period [2][28]. - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 7, MSK opened at 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), PA was around 2000, MSC was 2140, and OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. Last week, MSC issued a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The European line price is expected to increase to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 dollars for the first week of March (Week 10), unchanged from the previous period [4][30]. Relevant News - On 2/11, the Iranian President stated that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to accept any form of inspection. On 2/12, the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said that Iran is in consultation with the US to determine the time for the next round of negotiations [5][31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For the EC2604 contract, pay attention to the spot market and actual cargo rush situation. Spot price drops may suppress the futures market, but a larger post - Chinese New Year cargo rush due to lower freight may reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying at low prices during the spot market's bottom - finding process [3] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to short the EC2610 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downside [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.2, down 0.16%, with a basis of 249.2, trading volume of 778, and open interest of 5106, a decrease of 469 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1129.7, up 1.54%, with a basis of 826.7, trading volume of 22099, and open interest of 41299, a decrease of 512 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1378.0, up 4.60%, with a basis of 578.4, trading volume of 3489, and open interest of 4057, an increase of 130 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, up 1.24%, with a basis of 470.3, trading volume of 161, and open interest of 1347, a decrease of 4 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1074.7, up 2.07%, with a basis of 881.7, trading volume of 1473, and open interest of 8347, a decrease of 205 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The value was 597.4, compared to 577.5 the previous day and 582.1 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 19.9 and a week - on - week increase of 61.2 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The value was - 204.8, compared to - 248.3 the previous day and - 185.8 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 43.5 and a week - on - week decrease of 29.2 [2] Spot and Index Data - Spot (European route): As of 2026/1/12, the price was 1956.39, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European route): As of 2026/1/16, the price was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK opened at 2750 (up 100 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market [4] - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures market [4] - Week 6 of February: MSK opened at 2000/2100 (down 400 week - on - week), YML quoted at 2400 (special offer at 2000), and CMA quoted at 2600 dollars [4] Related News - On 1/5, CMA CGM decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [4]

Group 1: Futures and Spot Market Data - EC2512 contract yesterday's closing price was 1649.1, down -0.24%, with a basis of -165.5, trading volume of 270, and open interest of 3731 with a change of -82 [2][15] - EC2602 contract yesterday's closing price was 1585.0, up 2.92%, with a basis of -101.4, trading volume of 27304, and open interest of 34222 with a change of -786 [2][15] - EC2604 contract yesterday's closing price was 1090.1, up 0.65%, with a basis of 393.6, trading volume of 2881, and open interest of 19129 with a change of 132 [2][15] - SCFIS index on 2025/12/1 was 1483.65 points, down -9.50% from the previous period [2][15] - SCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period [2][15] - CCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period [2][15] - NCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2][15] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - Contract 12 is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the implementation of shipping companies' announced price increases should be observed [3][16] - Contract 02 is neutrally valued, following the spot market in the short - term, and aiming for the peak - season price. The focus should be on cargo - booking. Although high capacity limits the upside, it is expected to rise steadily. Reasons include pre - Spring Festival concentrated shipments not fully realized, strong cargo volume on the European line this year with obvious seasonality, and the contract covering the second - half of January and early February when seasonal price peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival [3][16] - Contract 04 has limited short - term downside space. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it may follow the near - month contracts' rise [3][16] Group 3: Recent Spot Market Conditions - The announced price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 US dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market [4][17] - In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 US dollars, setting the tone, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 US dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4][17] - YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 US dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 US dollars [4][17] - On Thursday, MSK issued a price - increase notice for the European line in January, raising the price to 3500 US dollars [4][17] Group 4: News and Market Expectations - In 2024 (after the detour), on November 30, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 US dollars, ONE to 2800 US dollars, and MSK's opening price was 2400 US dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [13][26] - In the second half of December, MSK's opening price for Week 51 was 2400 US dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous week, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [13][26]