瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2602 | -0.32 | -5.80 | 1801.30 | | | EC2604 | 1.09 | 12.60 | 1166.00 | | | EC2606 | 4.22 | 55.40 | 1367.90 | | | EC2608 | 1.08 | 16.00 | 1500.00 | | | EC2610 | 0.85 | 8.90 | 1060.00 | | | EC2612 | -0.24 | -3.10 | 1297.00 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS | ...

02后面主要看现货走势, 1月运价见顶高度与时间、 后续跌价等节奏很难预估，当前点位下不建议入场。 _ 地缘反转、节前减仓、跌无可跌后的涨价函），思路以连高空为主。 04估值中性偏高，但短期存在上行风险（资金移仓、 远月受地缘影响大；在复航预期、淡季的长期逻辑下，10逢高空思路为主。 ગઢ 美容量版 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को प्रति | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1.31% | 572.7 | 6762 | | 21197 | -26 ...

集运早报 研究中心能化团队 合约 昨日收盘价 其差 昨日成交昆 涨跌 FC 2512 1624.4 -0 47% -113 8 122 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को किसी की की की में बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया है कि में बाद किया है कि कि में बाद किया है कि कि किसी की किसी की किसी की बाद किया है कि क | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 道業 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1624.4 | -0.47% | -113.8 | 122 | | 2143 | -75 | | | EC2602 | | 1668.6 | -1.84% | -158.0 | 27023 | | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For contracts after 02, the trend mainly depends on the spot market. The key lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase. Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the 04 contract, the short - term downside space is small. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when 04 may follow the spot market or close the basis [3]. - For far - term contracts, use a positive spread strategy. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Contract Market Data - **Contract Prices and Volumes**: EC2512 closed at 1631.5 with a - 1.11% change, EC2602 at 1686.8 (- 3.39%), EC2604 at 1112.7 (- 3.22%), EC2606 at 1290.0 (- 1.28%), EC2608 at 1462.4 (- 1.18%), and EC2610 at 1041.2 (- 1.20%). Trading volumes were 212 for EC2512, 27798 for EC2602, 7161 for EC2604, 279 for EC2606, 216 for EC2608, and 641 for EC2610. Open interest and its changes also varied for each contract [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 had a spread of 518.8, with a day - on - day increase of 18.7 and a week - on - week decrease of - 73.3. Different month - to - month spreads showed various trends [2]. - **Index Data**: The ટરદાર index on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 with a 0.10% increase. SCFI (on 2025/12/12) was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% increase, CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% increase, and NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% increase [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 51**: MSK opened bookings for 2400 (200 more than the previous week). MSC and OA quoted between 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [4]. - **Week 52**: MSK opened bookings for 2300 (100 less than the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 quotes [4]. - **January**: MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively [4]. - **Monday**: MSC opened bookings at 2864 dollars, equivalent to 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Tuesday**: MSK quoted 2700 dollars/FEU for the China - Europe route to London (2800 for 40 - foot high - cube containers) [4]. Related News - On 12/15, the White House privately rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Israel killed a Hamas deputy commander in Gaza City on Saturday without informing or consulting the US [5]. - On 12/16, the Israeli Defense Forces attacked a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon [5].

沂期欧线现货情况: 手家早报 | | | | | | AND IN | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/8 | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓管 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1658.6 | 0.58% | -175.0 | 443 | | 3500 | -231 | | | EC2602 | | 1609.9 | 1.57% | -126.3 | 37284 | | 32215 | -2007 | | | EC2604 | | 1092.9 | 0.26% | 390.8 | 4598 | | 19350 | 229 | | | EC2606 | | 1252.5 | -0.21% | 231.2 | 180 | | 2108 | -33 | | | EC2608 | | 1367.1 | -1.34% | 116.6 | 88 | | 1226 | 10 ...

2025年12月3日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 回撤或已到位, 主力合约连续反弹, 已建议轻仓试多, 关注春节前出货行情, 运价并无明显波动。 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案，运价走势的逻辑 还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上，目前现货价格小幅下 降。综上述，我们认为，关税问题已经呈现边际化效应，目前核心还 是现货运价的走向，主力合约已经出现季节性反弹，建议轻仓参与或 欢迎。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月1日 | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1483.65点，较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）972.63点，较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）948.77点，较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1024.64点，较上期上涨7.67% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）881.66点，较上期下跌7.77% | | 11月28日 | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公 ...

串12-1日运九高企可 02估值中性偏低。核心在干短期难以证明,征伪阳季不旺，今年过年较晚。旺季启动推迟中属正常：今年欧线货量整体较好, 能会压制高度，但我们不给予过分想观预期。后续观察揽货情况，运价高点多在春节前4-5周，若后续赶季逐步兑现，02或有更高想象空间。 04仍建议逢高空思路对待。 近期欧线现货情况: Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMINI和PA联盟报价在2400-2500之间，OA在2500-2700美金，均值约2500美金 (折盘1750点左右) 。 周一, OOCL调降至2530美金, CMA调降至2645美金。 点评: 周 -盘面震荡运行 12估值中性，持仓量明显减少, 将逐步走向交割逻辑, 12月第一周中枢约2400-2500美金，后续或以企稳为主 카드 | | | | | A B A B | Call Collection | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the bullish sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On November 17, the 02 contract opened high and moved high, with the overall disk oscillating strongly. The main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a gain of 6.73%, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [2][4]. Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (comprehensive index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (comprehensive index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, and the previous value was 52; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [4]. - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not carry losses, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In November, the freight rate did not reach the announced increase, and there was a long - short game in the market. It is recommended to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2] - After the wide - range shock of the market, attention should be paid to the tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 14, the NCFI (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% [1] - On November 14, the SCFI was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4%; the SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1%; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7%; the SCFI US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59%; the CCFI (US West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, previous value 45; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, previous value 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, previous value 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 previously, forecast - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The US October S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, previous value 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, previous value 53.9 [2] Contract Information - On November 14, the main contract 2602 closed at 1605.0, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 20,000 lots and an open interest of 38,000 lots, an increase of 759 lots from the previous day [3] - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract at the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests waiting and seeing or lightly trying under the current situation [4] - The long - term strategy suggests taking profits when the contracts rise and waiting for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Information - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will not establish a Palestinian state, the IDF will驻守 the Hermon mountain peak and its security zone, the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and Hamas will be disarmed [5] - The Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip is broken, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [5]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].