Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is following a downward trend, the market is in the process of bottom - building, the basis is tightening, and recent fluctuations are significant. Due to the complexity of the geopolitical conflict and tariff instability, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - In the context of international instability, the seasonal logic of each contract remains, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Shipping Freight Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 2. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US's August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US's August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. 3. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - Recently, the Israeli military has expanded its military operations against Hamas, and the Houthi armed forces have launched a missile attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea [5]. 4. Futures Market - On September 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, a decrease of 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 5. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try a light - position long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add more positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations in each contract [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. The subsequent drivers continue to be weak. The current discount of the October contract to the spot is around 450 points, and there is still expected to be room for decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 closed at 2083.8 with 0.00% change, EC2510 at 1373.6 with 1.04% change, EC2512 at 1763.0 with 2.30% change, EC2602 at 1530.1 with 0.57% change, EC2604 at 1332.0 with - 0.22% change, and EC2606 at 1487.5 with - 0.50% change [2][16] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: Trading volumes for EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 82, 31099, 6018, 1011, 1068, and 93 respectively. Open interests were 2506, 54859, 11324, 4438, 5549, and 822 respectively, with changes of - 50, - 1839, 193, 14, 90, and - 13 [2][16] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2508 - 2510 spread was 710.2 with a daily change of - 14.2 and a weekly change of 39.0; EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 389.4 with a daily change of - 25.6 and a weekly change of - 48.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 232.9 with a daily change of 31.0 and a weekly change of 0.0 [2][16] Indexes - **Totenit**: Updated on 2025/8/11, the current value is 2235.48 points, with a monthly change of - 2.71% and a quarterly change of - 0.31% [2][16] - **SCF (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1820 dollars/TEU, with a monthly change of - 7.19% and a quarterly change of - 4.39% [2][16] - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1790.47 points, with a monthly change of - 0.48% and a quarterly change of 0.53% [2][16] - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1188.69 points, with a monthly change of - 5.49% [2][16] Recent European Line Quotes - Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is 2850 US dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points). Among them, the PA alliance quotes 2500 US dollars, MSK quotes 2300 US dollars, and the OA alliance quotes 2700 - 2800 US dollars [3][17] Related News - On 8/13, the leader of the German Left Party called for a complete halt to arms supplies to Israel. On 8/17, Israel began transporting supplies to Gaza in preparation for military operations, and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that the unconditional release of all detainees is a prerequisite for a cease - fire. On 8/16, Trump said he would temporarily not impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [4][18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 shows different levels, with weekly average capacities of 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The cargo volume is entering a downward period, which is expected to put significant pressure on subsequent freight rates. The recent quotes of European routes have decreased, and the quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable [1]. 2. Key Data Futures Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | Base Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2508 | 2022.5 | 0.50 | 235.5 | 34566 | 30842 | -403 | | EC2510 | 2022.5 | 0.80 | 235.5 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1556.4 | 0.17 | 701.6 | 1644 | 6032 | - | | EC2602 | 1365.7 | 0.91 | 892.3 | 416 | 3799 | 24 | | EC2604 | 1204.0 | 1.11 | 1054.0 | 088 | - | 28 | | EC2606 | 1342.1 | 0.72 | 915.9 | 109 | 471 | 41 | [1] Spot Indices | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Terdar | Electric Appliance | 2025/7/7 | Yuan | 2258.04 | 2123.24 | 1937.14 | 6.35% | 9.61% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | USD/TEU | 2101 | 2030 | 1832 | 3.50% | 10.63% | | CCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1694.3 | 1640.72 | 1578.6 | 3.27% | 3.94% | | NCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/7/4 | Points | 1442.46 | 1442.95 | 1299.58 | -0.03% | 11.03% | | TCI | Daily | 2025/7/9 | - | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 1019.55 | 0.00% | 0.00% | [1] Freight Rates - The freight rates in the first half of July were around $3380 (equivalent to 2350 points on the futures market). The quotes of shipping companies in late July are generally stable, with the current quote range between $2900 - $3500, and the average is $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market) [1][2] 3. Market News - On July 11, Israeli senior officials stated that a cease - fire agreement in Gaza might be reached in one or two weeks. Israel will offer a temporary cease - fire, and if Hamas does not lay down its arms, Israel will continue military operations. Houthi armed leaders said that as long as Israel continues its "aggression" in Gaza, their maritime operations against ships will continue. The Houthi armed forces claimed to have launched 45 attacks on Israeli - related targets in the past week [3] 4. Shipping Capacity and Quote Changes - The shipping capacity in the third week of July is relatively high at 320,000 TEU, and the fourth - week capacity is 290,000 TEU. The capacity in the first week of August reaches 340,000 TEU. Recently, the quotes of European routes have decreased. On Thursday, MSC's offline quote dropped from $3440 to $3140, and HPL's online quote dropped from $3535 to $3335 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the difficulty of trading is high. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, and attention should be paid to whether US terminal consumption is boosted. With large fluctuations in commodities recently, the European line has strong macro - attributes, and the difficulty of trading is high. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Trump administration does not plan to extend the tariff negotiation period, and the spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market and a small rebound in the futures market. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing, the spot freight rate changes slightly, and the market is full of mixed long - and short - term information, with intense trading and wide - range fluctuations in the futures market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period. On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In June, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4), the added value of the service - industry PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7), the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [2]. - **China**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - **US**: In June, the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February); the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Futures Market - **July 3, 2508 Contract**: The closing price was 1896.9, with a gain of 0.11%, the trading volume was 28,500 lots, and the open interest was 35,900 lots, a decrease of 388 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term futures market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to lightly short the 2508 contract when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly go long on the 2510 contract below 1300, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - **Circuit Breaker and Margin Adjustment**: The circuit breaker for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid the expansion of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices have soared by over 4%, and there is a strong sentiment of commodity rebound. However, due to the high difficulty of trading in the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the lack of substantial progress in the second China-US talks and no new positive factors, the market is likely to decline rather than rise. The spot market price range is set, with slight price cuts to test the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Indexes - **NCFI**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points on June 16, down 7.94% from the previous period. The NCFI European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4%; the NCFI US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% [1]. - **SCFIS**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points on June 16, up 4.6%; the SCFIS US West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% [1]. - **SCFI**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2088.24 points on June 13, down 152.11 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62%; the SCFI US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% [1][2]. - **CCFI**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points on June 13, up 7.6%. The CCFI European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6%; the CCFI US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% [1][2]. Market Conditions - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices continued to surge by over 4% last night, increasing the trading difficulty for the European routes due to their strong macro - attributes [3]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: In May, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), the services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), the composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - **US Economic Data**: In May, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), the services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and the composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, consider shorting with a light position when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, consider going long below 1450, and set stop - losses [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Pay attention to the court's ruling, and currently adopt a positive spread structure [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Take profits when each contract rallies, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: On June 17, the Israeli military announced that it had killed Iranian top military commander Ali Shadmani, which is expected to further intensify the Israel - Iran conflict [4]. - **Environmental Cooperation News**: The 10th China - EU Environmental Policy Ministerial Dialogue was held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to deepen cooperation in the field of ecological environment [4]. Contract Adjustments - **Circuit Breakers**: The circuit breakers for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 16% [3]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin requirements for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 26% [3]. - **Intraday Opening Limits**: The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3].