Eld The | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 贵钓 EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1278.6 | 涨跌 -3.18% | 基差 294.9 | 昨日成交量 33480 | | 昨日持仓量 35322 | 持仓变动 850 | | | EC2605 | | 1435.0 | -2.97% | 138.5 | 274 | | 351 | 41 | | | EC2606 | | 1659.0 | -1.93% | -85.5 | 6533 | | 16362 | રેજિર | | | EC2607 | | 1828.9 | -1.35% | -255.4 | રેર | | 207 | 8 | | | EC2608 | | 1730.3 | -0.66% | -156.8 | 483 | | 1337 | 0 | | | EC2609 | | 1322.0 | 0.53% | 251.5 | 14 | | 140 | 0 | ...

EEAE FA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1177.9 | 涨跌 -0.09% | 基差 480.0 | 昨日成交量 17204 | | 昨日持仓量 33027 | 持仓变动 -872 | | | EC2605 EC2606 | | 1275.3 1501.0 | 0.18% 0.08% | 382.6 156.9 | 84 રે રેસ્ટર | | 214 14185 | -14 Fires | | | EC2607 | | 1719.9 | 0.08% | -62.0 | 42 | | 119 | 14 | | | EC2608 | | 1581.0 | 0.30% | 76.9 | 263 | | 1371 | -45 | | | EC2609 | | 1240.0 | 0.40% | 417.9 | 64 | | 134 | 7 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 110 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the near - term, under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they will oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Under geopolitical fluctuations, cautious operations are advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2602 (1737.8, +1.03%), EC2604 (1237.9, +4.50%), EC2606 (1533.7, +1.36%), EC2608 (1597.9, - 0.62%), and EC2610 (1128.6, - 0.12%) are presented. Their corresponding trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes are also provided [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between contracts like EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606, along with their comparisons with previous days and weeks, are given. For example, the spread of EC2502 - 2604 is 499.9, with a day - on - day change of - 35.5 and a week - on - week change of 9.9 [2]. - **Indicators**: The updated frequency, release dates, and values of indicators such as the Super Crystal Index (1792.14, - 3.61% from the previous period) and SCFI (1418, - 11.10% from the previous period) are shown [2]. Spot Situation - Downstream is currently booking cargo space for early February. The overall cargo collection of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased. The price center in Week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, Maersk's opening price is 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period, and other shipping companies' quotes remain the same for now [4]. News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance on the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, structural changes will be made to Maersk's ME11 service, redirecting it to the Red Sea and Suez Canal [5]. - On February 4, the Israeli Prime Minister met with a US envoy to discuss the Iran issue. The meeting lasted over three hours, and the Israeli Prime Minister expressed a firm stance on issues such as Hamas's disarmament and Gaza's demilitarization [5]. - US media reported on February 3 that an American - flagged oil tanker was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker continued its journey under the escort of a US warship [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush could reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying on dips during the spot price bottom - finding process [3][33] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. A positive spread trading strategy is generally recommended, and also pay attention to shorting the EC2610 contract when the price rises (the current valuation of the EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.6, up 0.02%, with a basis of 248.8, a trading volume of 748, an open interest of 4681, and an open interest change of -425 [2][32] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.7, up 0.71%, with a basis of 818.7, a trading volume of 19477, an open interest of 40770, and an open interest change of -529 [2][32] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1399.1, up 1.53%, with a basis of 557.3, a trading volume of 3227, an open interest of 4883, and an open interest change of 826 [2][32] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1498.4, up 0.83%, with a basis of 458.0, a trading volume of 128, an open interest of 1353, and an open interest change of 6 [2][32] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1086.4, up 1.09%, with a basis of 870.0, a trading volume of 1037, an open interest of 8318, and an open interest change of -29 [2][32] 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The day - on - day change was -7.6, and the week - on - week change was -19.6 [2][32] - EC2504 - 2606: The day - on - day change was -13.1, and the week - on - week change was -71.2 [2][32] 3.3 Index Data - Spot (European Line): As of 2026/1/12, the index was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from the period before the previous one [2][32] - SCFI: As of 2026/1/16, it was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2][32] 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK's opening price was 2750 (up 100 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), OA was 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4][34] - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (special offer at 2200), OA was 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4][34] - February Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2000/2100 (down 400 month - on - month), currently OA is 2400 - 2600, PA is 2000 - 2200. The central price is about 2300 dollars, equivalent to about 1600 points on the futures [4][34] 3.5 News - On Wednesday, YML lowered its February freight rates. The FAK quote remained at 2400, and the special offer dropped from 2100 to 2000. CMA quoted a February freight rate of 2600 online. Other shipping companies remained unchanged [4][34] - On Thursday, COSCO quoted 2500 on the European line, and EMC cut its price to 2400 [4][34] - On 1/23, Israeli President Herzog said Hamas still held hostages in Gaza. The real test of the second - stage cease - fire was Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah was trying to reorganize and rebuild, and the Houthi rebels were still active [5][35] - On 1/23, Trump said there were only small - scale conflicts left in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas didn't fulfill its promise to lay down arms, it would be finished. He also said action must be taken against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5][35] - On 1/23, the Iranian Speaker said all cities in Iran had returned to peace [5][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Festival stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of futures prices, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous increase in freight rates to be partially reversed. However, the overall sentiment has improved, and future attention should be focused on the price increase announcements of shipping companies [9][42] - Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure with a tax rate of nearly 40%. The boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) fluctuated slightly this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.32%, and the far - month contracts had a decline ranging from 1% to 4%, with a relatively small range of increase or decrease [8] - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1742.64, up 153.44 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.7%. On December 26, the latest SCFI rose again, continuing to increase by 6.7% month - on - month to 1656.32 points, with varying degrees of increase in major routes. The SCFI European line freight rate increased by 10.2% month - on - month to $1690/TEU, reflecting the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in early January, which drove up the futures price [8][41] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI data showed a slight recovery, generally in line with seasonal patterns. The new export order index rebounded to 47.9, indicating that terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas [8][41] - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk announced on December 24 that it would levy an additional PSS on the European line from January 6, 2026, raising it from the previous 100/300 to 400/800. Follow - up on the price increase progress of other shipping companies is required [8][41] - Geopolitically, Zelensky said that the delegation would submit negotiation details to him. The two sides had completed all key work in the draft stage of the 20 - point "peace plan", and the overall plan was formulated. Although it was not perfect, the core promotion goal was achieved, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea improved [8][41] - The economic sentiment in the eurozone continued to pick up. Boosted by large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, the service industry in Germany continued to recover strongly. The composite PMI remained stable above 50, and the inflation sub - item continued the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" attitude. The eurozone economy is expected to continue the relative strength accumulated since the third quarter [8][41] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The State Council Tariff and Tax Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026. Next year, China will implement temporary import tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates on 935 commodities, and the total number of tariff items will increase to 8972, which is a positive factor [20] - A new convention reshaping global trade rules, the "United Nations Convention on Negotiable Transport Documents", was officially passed at the 80th United Nations General Assembly, filling a century - old legal gap in land trade. It is a neutral - to - positive factor [20] - US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Although both sides said the talks "made great progress", no major announcements were made. Trump said they discussed "almost all topics" and were "very close to reaching an agreement". Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue was still difficult, and the final decision must be made by the Ukrainian people, which is a positive factor [20] - The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, firmly opposing the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, and has made solemn representations to the US through the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Regarding the export restrictions on rare - earth magnets, China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade. For the agreement between TikTok and investors, the Chinese government hopes that the enterprise can reach a solution that complies with Chinese laws and regulations and balances interests, which is a neutral factor [20] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts both contracted this week [26] - The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly this week [29] - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. This week, the BDI and BPI declined, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [33] - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [35] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - This week, the futures price of the container shipping index (European line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 6.03%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1% and 2%, with a relatively small range of increase or decrease [41] - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1742.64, up 153.44 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.7%. On December 26, the latest SCFI rose again, continuing to increase by 6.7% month - on - month to 1656.32 points, with varying degrees of increase in major routes. The SCFI European line freight rate increased by 10.2% month - on - month to $1690/TEU, reflecting the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in early January, which drove up the futures price [41] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI data showed a slight recovery, generally in line with seasonal patterns. The new export order index rebounded to 47.9, indicating that terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas [41] - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk announced on December 24 that it would levy an additional PSS on the European line from January 6, 2026, raising it from the previous 100/300 to 400/800. Follow - up on the price increase progress of other shipping companies is required [41] - Geopolitically, Zelensky said that the delegation would submit negotiation details to him. The two sides had completed all key work in the draft stage of the 20 - point "peace plan", and the overall plan was formulated. Although it was not perfect, the core promotion goal was achieved, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea improved [41] - The economic sentiment in the eurozone continued to pick up. Boosted by large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, the service industry in Germany continued to recover strongly. The composite PMI remained stable above 50, and the inflation sub - item continued the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" attitude. The eurozone economy is expected to continue the relative strength accumulated since the third quarter [41] - Overall, festival stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of futures prices, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous increase in freight rates to be partially reversed. However, the overall sentiment has improved, and future attention should be focused on the price increase announcements of shipping companies [42] - Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure with a tax rate of nearly 40%. The boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For EC2602, the future trend mainly depends on the spot market. It's difficult to predict the peak height and time of freight rates in January and the subsequent price - decline rhythm. It's not recommended to enter the market at the current level, and the strategy is mainly to go short on rallies considering factors like geopolitical reversals, pre - holiday position reduction, and price increase notices after reaching the bottom [3][13] - For EC2604, the valuation is moderately high. There is a short - term upward risk due to factors such as capital position transfer and greater geopolitical influence on far - month contracts. In the long - term logic of resumption of navigation and off - season, the strategy is mainly to go short on rallies [3][13] Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: EC2512 closed at 1604.8 with a - 0.51% change; EC2602 at 1822.9 with a - 0.09% change; EC2604 at 1169.9 with a 1.31% change; EC2606 at 1374.0 with a 4.39% change; EC2608 at 1497.7 with a 0.78% change; EC2610 at 1054.7 with a 0.51% change [2][12] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 434.9, with a day - on - day change of - 23.3 and a week - on - week change of - 66.4 [2][12] Spot Market - **Indices**: SCEIS on December 29, 2025, was 1742.64 points, up 9.66% from the previous period; SCFI on December 26, 2025, was 1690 dollars/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; CCFI on December 26, 2025, was 1519.06 points, up 3.06% from the previous period; NCFI on December 26, 2025, was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period [2][12] - **European Line Spot Situation**: In Week 1, MSK opened at 2500 dollars, OA at 2700 - 2800 dollars, PA at 2800 dollars, with a central price of 1950 dollars. In Week 2, MSK remained at 2500 dollars, and the price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period). YML reduced the price of a voyage in Week 2 by 200 dollars to 2600 dollars, and ONE increased the second - half - month quote by 500 dollars to 3335 dollars [4][14] Geopolitical News - On December 30, 2025, US President Trump said he reached an agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on most matters, talked about disarming Hamas, and hoped to enter the second phase of the Gaza plan soon [4][14] - On December 29, 2025, Hamas accused Israel of not fulfilling the cease - fire agreement and called on the US to pressure Israel [5][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is no obvious trending market recently, and the market fluctuates widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening and sailing suspension [1] - After January 2026, the focus is on the spot market trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate highs often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but the container capacity in January may suppress the increase [1] - At the current level, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - In the short term, the downside space for the 04 contract is limited. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rallies that the 04 contract may bring following the spot market or recovering the basis [2] - For the far - month contracts, use the positive spread trading strategy. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rallies for the 10 contract [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1624.4 with a decline of 0.47% and a change of - 113.8, and the trading volume was 122. Other contracts such as EC2602, EC2604 also showed different price changes and trading volumes [1] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 515.6, with a day - on - day increase of 7.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 58.8 [1] Spot Market Information - **Spot Rate Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) index on December 15, 2025, was 1510.56 points, with a weekly increase of 0.10%. The SCFI (European Line) on December 12, 2025, was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a change of 9.86% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.55, with an increase of 1.59%, and the NCFI was 1064.13, with an increase of 9.98% [1] - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 51, MSK opened cabins at 2400 (a month - on - month increase of 200), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. In Week 52, MSK opened cabins at 2300 (a month - on - month decrease of 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively [3] News and Other Information - **Geopolitical News**: On December 19, mediators for the Gaza cease - fire will meet in the US to discuss the second phase of the cease - fire [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For contracts after 02, the trend mainly depends on the spot market. The key lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase. Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the 04 contract, the short - term downside space is small. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when 04 may follow the spot market or close the basis [3]. - For far - term contracts, use a positive spread strategy. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Contract Market Data - **Contract Prices and Volumes**: EC2512 closed at 1631.5 with a - 1.11% change, EC2602 at 1686.8 (- 3.39%), EC2604 at 1112.7 (- 3.22%), EC2606 at 1290.0 (- 1.28%), EC2608 at 1462.4 (- 1.18%), and EC2610 at 1041.2 (- 1.20%). Trading volumes were 212 for EC2512, 27798 for EC2602, 7161 for EC2604, 279 for EC2606, 216 for EC2608, and 641 for EC2610. Open interest and its changes also varied for each contract [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 had a spread of 518.8, with a day - on - day increase of 18.7 and a week - on - week decrease of - 73.3. Different month - to - month spreads showed various trends [2]. - **Index Data**: The ટરદાર index on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 with a 0.10% increase. SCFI (on 2025/12/12) was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% increase, CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% increase, and NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% increase [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 51**: MSK opened bookings for 2400 (200 more than the previous week). MSC and OA quoted between 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [4]. - **Week 52**: MSK opened bookings for 2300 (100 less than the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 quotes [4]. - **January**: MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively [4]. - **Monday**: MSC opened bookings at 2864 dollars, equivalent to 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Tuesday**: MSK quoted 2700 dollars/FEU for the China - Europe route to London (2800 for 40 - foot high - cube containers) [4]. Related News - On 12/15, the White House privately rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Israel killed a Hamas deputy commander in Gaza City on Saturday without informing or consulting the US [5]. - On 12/16, the Israeli Defense Forces attacked a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic with little deviation. P1 is around 1550 - 1600 points, P2 is between 1650 - 1700 points, and P3 is expected to be flat [3]. - The EC02 contract has a neutral valuation with short - term upward drivers. Due to the improvement in cargo volume, there are expectations of stable freight rates in late December and price increases in January. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to - late January 2026). However, the large amount of available capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. A cautious long - position view is maintained [3]. - The EC04 contract has limited short - term downside space. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it may rise following the near - month contract [3]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1658.6, up 0.58% with a trading volume of 443 and an open interest of 3500, a decrease of 231 [2]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1609.9, up 1.57% with a trading volume of 37284 and an open interest of 32215, a decrease of 2007 [2]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1092.9, up 0.26% with a trading volume of 4598 and an open interest of 19350, an increase of 229 [2]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1252.5, down 0.21% with a trading volume of 180 and an open interest of 2108, a decrease of 33 [2]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1367.1, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 88 and an open interest of 1226, an increase of 10 [2]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1040.0, down 0.02% with a trading volume of 406 and an open interest of 3976, an increase of 15 [2]. Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2504: The month - spread was 565.7, with a day - on - day increase of 6.7 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The month - spread was 48.7, with a day - on - day decrease of 15.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The month - spread was 517.0, with a day - on - day increase of 22.1 [2]. Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated on 2025/12/5, at 1400 dollars/TEU, down 0.28% [2]. - CCFI: Updated on 2025/12/5, at 1447.56 points, down 0.12% [2]. - NCFI: Updated on 2025/12/5, at 967.55 points, down 5.57% [2]. European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 50: Maersk's opening price dropped to $2200, setting the tone. Other shipping companies followed suit, with OA at $2300 - 2400 and PA at $1900 - 2100. The current central price is $2200, equivalent to 1550 points on the futures market [4]. - Week 51: Maersk's opening price was $2400 (+$200), and COSCO's offline price was $2400 (+$200). Maersk announced a price increase for January, with the freight for 20 - foot/40 - foot containers on the European line rising to $2275/$3500 respectively [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract has had a seasonal rebound, suggesting a light - position participation [4]. - With the mixed long and short information, including some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Freight Index - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. The Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [3]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In October, the US's S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the closing price of the main contract 2602 was 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%. The trading volume was 24,700 lots, and the open interest was 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1,882 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract has rebounded after retracement, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. It is recommended for risk - takers to take a small - position trial long on the main contract. Do not add more positions when the market dives slightly, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position trial [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5].