串12-1日运九高企可 02估值中性偏低。核心在干短期难以证明,征伪阳季不旺，今年过年较晚。旺季启动推迟中属正常：今年欧线货量整体较好, 能会压制高度，但我们不给予过分想观预期。后续观察揽货情况，运价高点多在春节前4-5周，若后续赶季逐步兑现，02或有更高想象空间。 04仍建议逢高空思路对待。 近期欧线现货情况: Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMINI和PA联盟报价在2400-2500之间，OA在2500-2700美金，均值约2500美金 (折盘1750点左右) 。 周一, OOCL调降至2530美金, CMA调降至2645美金。 点评: 周 -盘面震荡运行 12估值中性，持仓量明显减少, 将逐步走向交割逻辑, 12月第一周中枢约2400-2500美金，后续或以企稳为主 카드 | | | | | A B A B | Call Collection | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the bullish sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On November 17, the 02 contract opened high and moved high, with the overall disk oscillating strongly. The main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a gain of 6.73%, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [2][4]. Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (comprehensive index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (comprehensive index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, and the previous value was 52; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [4]. - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not carry losses, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In November, the freight rate did not reach the announced increase, and there was a long - short game in the market. It is recommended to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2] - After the wide - range shock of the market, attention should be paid to the tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 14, the NCFI (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% [1] - On November 14, the SCFI was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4%; the SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1%; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7%; the SCFI US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59%; the CCFI (US West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, previous value 45; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, previous value 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, previous value 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 previously, forecast - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The US October S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, previous value 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, previous value 53.9 [2] Contract Information - On November 14, the main contract 2602 closed at 1605.0, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 20,000 lots and an open interest of 38,000 lots, an increase of 759 lots from the previous day [3] - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract at the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests waiting and seeing or lightly trying under the current situation [4] - The long - term strategy suggests taking profits when the contracts rise and waiting for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Information - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will not establish a Palestinian state, the IDF will驻守 the Hermon mountain peak and its security zone, the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and Hamas will be disarmed [5] - The Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip is broken, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [5]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the market strengthened significantly due to rumors of MSK opening bookings and raising prices. The far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts. The December contract has multiple positive drivers such as price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, but its valuation is not low, and it will follow the spot market in the future. It is recommended to take a long position on dips. [2] - The February 2026 contract has high uncertainty and is expected to mainly follow the December contract's trend in the next month. [2] - The April 2026 contract is a off - season contract, which maintains a narrow - range oscillation under the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of shipping, it is recommended to take a short position on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts were 1946.0, 1652.0, 1199.6, 1426.1, 1497.1, and 1142.8 respectively, with daily increases of 1.89%, 3.66%, 0.81%, 1.07%, 0.81%, and 0.69% respectively. [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 746.4, 294.0, and 452.4 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 26.5, - 22.2, and 48.7 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCFIS index on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 7.87% from the previous period; the CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81 points, an increase of 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62 points, an increase of 17.43% from the previous period. [2] Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Early November**: PA's price dropped the most to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN dropped to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA dropped to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market). [3] - **Late November**: Shipping companies mostly announced price increases to 2500 - 3100 US dollars, and MSK quoted 2250 US dollars. [3] News - **Price Increase Notices**: On Tuesday, MSC and HPL issued price increase notices for the second half of November, announcing price increases to 3000 and 3100 US dollars/FEU respectively. MSK's opening quotation for the second half of November was 2250 (+50) US dollars/FEU, lower than the previous market rumors/expectations of 2400 - 2500 US dollars; MSK also issued a price increase notice for December, raising the European line price to 3200 US dollars, while MSC's price dropped to 2365 US dollars. [4] - **Related Geopolitical News**: On November 5, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the Israeli army would unrestrictedly destroy Hamas tunnels and armed personnel in the controlled areas of the Gaza Strip. [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market may be optimistic about future freight rates, leading to an upward trend in the market. However, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [2]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - For the arbitrage strategy, due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [2]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Market Conditions - On October 21, the main contract 2512 closed at 1769.3, up 5.10%, with a trading volume of 42,900 lots and an open interest of 28,400 lots, an increase of 2333 lots from the previous day [2]. - The SCFIS increased significantly, boosting the bullish sentiment. The market is optimistic about future freight rates, and the market fluctuated upward. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Policy and Event News - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [2]. - The Hamas delegation is discussing the next stage of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Cairo, Egypt. Hamas is committed to implementing all the terms of the Gaza cease - fire agreement. The issue of Hamas disarmament has been put on the agenda and needs to be resolved through consensus and in - depth dialogue among Palestinian political parties [2]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to adjourn the special meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), which was held from October 14 to 17, 2025, to consider and adopt the draft amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention, including the IMO net - zero framework. The special meeting will be reconvened in 12 months [2]. Trading Rules Adjustment - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is following a downward trend, the market is in the process of bottom - building, the basis is tightening, and recent fluctuations are significant. Due to the complexity of the geopolitical conflict and tariff instability, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - In the context of international instability, the seasonal logic of each contract remains, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Shipping Freight Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 2. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US's August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US's August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. 3. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - Recently, the Israeli military has expanded its military operations against Hamas, and the Houthi armed forces have launched a missile attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea [5]. 4. Futures Market - On September 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, a decrease of 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 5. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try a light - position long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add more positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations in each contract [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. The subsequent drivers continue to be weak. The current discount of the October contract to the spot is around 450 points, and there is still expected to be room for decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 closed at 2083.8 with 0.00% change, EC2510 at 1373.6 with 1.04% change, EC2512 at 1763.0 with 2.30% change, EC2602 at 1530.1 with 0.57% change, EC2604 at 1332.0 with - 0.22% change, and EC2606 at 1487.5 with - 0.50% change [2][16] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: Trading volumes for EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 82, 31099, 6018, 1011, 1068, and 93 respectively. Open interests were 2506, 54859, 11324, 4438, 5549, and 822 respectively, with changes of - 50, - 1839, 193, 14, 90, and - 13 [2][16] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2508 - 2510 spread was 710.2 with a daily change of - 14.2 and a weekly change of 39.0; EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 389.4 with a daily change of - 25.6 and a weekly change of - 48.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 232.9 with a daily change of 31.0 and a weekly change of 0.0 [2][16] Indexes - **Totenit**: Updated on 2025/8/11, the current value is 2235.48 points, with a monthly change of - 2.71% and a quarterly change of - 0.31% [2][16] - **SCF (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1820 dollars/TEU, with a monthly change of - 7.19% and a quarterly change of - 4.39% [2][16] - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1790.47 points, with a monthly change of - 0.48% and a quarterly change of 0.53% [2][16] - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1188.69 points, with a monthly change of - 5.49% [2][16] Recent European Line Quotes - Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is 2850 US dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points). Among them, the PA alliance quotes 2500 US dollars, MSK quotes 2300 US dollars, and the OA alliance quotes 2700 - 2800 US dollars [3][17] Related News - On 8/13, the leader of the German Left Party called for a complete halt to arms supplies to Israel. On 8/17, Israel began transporting supplies to Gaza in preparation for military operations, and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that the unconditional release of all detainees is a prerequisite for a cease - fire. On 8/16, Trump said he would temporarily not impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [4][18]