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珂玛科技(301611):首次覆盖报告:氮化铝陶瓷加热器和静电卡盘:半导体沉积和刻蚀环节核心组件业务值得期待
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-10-10 05:19
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Kema Technology (301611) with a "Buy" rating, projecting a neutral target price of 76 CNY per share and an upward target price of 89 CNY per share for the next six months [3][11]. Core Insights - The demand for Kema's products is driven by the 3D integration of storage chips and the upgrade of logic chip processes, particularly under the influence of AI, leading to a high growth trend in the demand for PECVD/ALD equipment [1][10]. - The company is expected to significantly increase its production capacity of aluminum nitride ceramic heaters from 60 units per month in 2024 to 200 units per month by the end of 2025, aligning with the shipping needs of core customers [1][10]. - Kema Technology is positioned as a leader in the domestic market with a low domestic substitution rate of around 14%, indicating substantial room for growth in the domestic replacement process [2][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for Kema Technology is expected to grow from 11.81 billion CNY in 2025 to 16.53 billion CNY in 2026, with a corresponding net profit of 4.28 billion CNY and 6.32 billion CNY respectively [4][56]. - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 60 for 2025 and 41 for 2026, with a target valuation of 52x for 2026 [3][56]. - The report highlights that Kema's functional modules, including ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks, are expected to account for a significant portion of revenue, with a notable increase in profit margins from 17% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2024 [25][56].