1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries will resume asphalt production this week, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1][4] - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1] - Market sentiment: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 0.51% to 3,373 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,374 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,115 to 16,054 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 163 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with that from January to November. The recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]