Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of asphalt decreased last week, with the start - up rate dropping to 21.8%, and the national shipment volume decreasing by 37.6% to 10.99 tons. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand gradually recovered, and the start - up rates of most downstream industries increased. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The basis in Shandong was still low. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries and the tense situation in the Middle East, the price of asphalt is expected to be strong and volatile in the near future [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, mainly because some refineries such as Tahe Petrochemical stopped work or reduced their loads [4][21]. - The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 37.6% to 10.99 tons week - on - week due to reduced supply from refineries in East China and high - price suppression of transactions [4][26]. Demand - In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of road transportation was - 0.6%, showing a negative growth but an improvement compared with - 6.0% in January - December 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant rebound from - 2.2% in January - December 2025 [31]. - After the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [4][31]. Inventory - As of the week of March 20, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 17.6% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [36]. Price - The ratio of asphalt to crude oil rose to 5.76 [13]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, at a low level [16].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The asphalt futures rose significantly, boosting the sentiment of the asphalt spot market. With the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the expanding production cuts by Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries, oil prices are on an upward trend, providing strong support for the cost of asphalt. It is expected that asphalt will mainly operate strongly [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: For BU2606, the opening price was 4053 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4464 yuan/ton, the highest was 4504 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3982 yuan/ton, the increase was 10.63%, and the trading volume was 112.76 million lots. For BU2609, the opening price was 3874 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4160 yuan/ton, the highest was 4190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3810 yuan/ton, the increase was 7.24%, and the trading volume was 6.62 million lots. The spot prices of asphalt in North China and East China were generally stable, while those in other regions increased to varying degrees [6]. Group 5: Industry News - **Shandong market**: The mainstream intended price of 70A - grade asphalt was 3930 - 4150 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The continuous rise of international oil prices and the new high of asphalt futures in the session were beneficial to the asphalt price from the cost and market sentiment. The price increases by refineries and traders drove up the low - end price in the Shandong market [7]. - **South China market**: The mainstream intended price of 70A - grade asphalt was 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The prices of asphalt from major refineries were generally raised above 4000 yuan/ton, and the limited supply from major refineries boosted market sentiment. The approaching of the asphalt futures to the daily limit in the session made traders more wait - and - see, and the intended selling prices generally increased, driving up the price in the South China market [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of South China asphalt, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][14][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support. Given the tense situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the expectation of refinery production cuts has increased. It is predicted that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations. Investors should participate with caution and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the supply side, last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the estimated domestic asphalt production is 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [3] - After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production. After the price increase, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the shipment volume increased significantly. The national shipment volume increased by 12.67% week-on-week to 176,100 tons, but it was still at a relatively low level [3][25] - The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week-on-week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [3][35] - The asphalt price in Shandong adjusted downward, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. With the current attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries in March [3] - A small amount of Iranian asphalt is imported into China. Asphalt imported from the Middle East, such as the UAE and Iraq, accounts for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production [3] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovered. The asphalt market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support [3] Price and Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to -119 yuan/ton, being at a relatively low level [15] Operating Rate - Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years [20] Demand - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [30] - As of the week ending March 13, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][30] Inventory - As of the week ending March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared to the week ending March 6, and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile following the crude oil price in the near future, with significant cost support and increasing supply and demand. Market participants should be cautious and monitor the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1][4] - This week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production, and downstream stocking enthusiasm increased after the price increase. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 12.67% week-on-week to 176,100 tons, but it is still at a low level [1] - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained flat week-on-week, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - The asphalt price in Shandong decreased, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level [1][3] - China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and the Middle East raw material supply will be affected by the US-Israel attacks on Iran. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] - Next week, Dongming Petrochemical will resume production, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the supply and demand of asphalt will both increase. The cost support is significant [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2606 rose 3.10% to 4,089 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,970 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4,098 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 10,880 to 186,318 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract dropped to -119 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it is still negative [4] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation [4] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [4] - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared with the week of March 6, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil prices in the near future, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][19] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons, an increase of 13.0%, and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons, a decrease of 1.9% [3] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production this week, and the asphalt开工率 will increase slightly [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工率 increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [29] 3.3 Market Conditions - The asphalt 2604 contract showed a strong upward trend [4] - The asphalt/原油 ratio dropped significantly to 5.67 [12] - The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,570 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 201 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [15] 3.4 Shipping Volume - As of the week of March 6, refineries in Shandong region resumed production, and the continuous price increase promoted the downstream stocking sentiment. The shipping volume increased significantly, and the national shipping volume increased by 19.86% week - on - week to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level [3][24] 3.5 Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared with the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has not fully resumed production, and the asphalt plant inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [33] 3.6 Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There is news that the large trader Vitol China quotes a discount of $5/barrel for Venezuelan crude oil, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13/barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. In addition, due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the raw material supply from Iran will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [3] - China imports relatively little asphalt from Iran. Imports of asphalt from the Middle - East such as the UAE and Iraq account for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared with China's asphalt production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt price is expected to rise following the crude oil price in the near term, with the asphalt's supply and demand both increasing. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle - East situation and the raw material shortage of domestic refineries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%) [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1] - This week, refineries in Shandong resumed production, and the continuous price increase boosted downstream stocking sentiment. The national shipment volume increased by 19.86% to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt refinery inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. There are signs that the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but the imports are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attack on Iran by the US and Israel may affect the raw material supply, and the market is worried about the raw material shortage of domestic refineries in March [1] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production next week, the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the asphalt's supply and demand will both increase [1] 3.2期现行情 - Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 3.34% to 3,771 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,656 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,834 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,388 to 85,886 lots [2] 3.3基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,570 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract fell to - 201 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.4基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, individual refineries in the north resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative [5] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation [5] - From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [5] - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [5] - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared with the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt refinery inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries will resume asphalt production this week, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1][4] - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1] - Market sentiment: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 0.51% to 3,373 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,374 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,115 to 16,054 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 163 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with that from January to November. The recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows crude oil fluctuations [6] - Demand in various regions is gradually weakening due to cooling and approaching the Spring Festival, but supported by low inventory and supply, spot prices remain stable, showing a supply - demand dual - weak situation [6] - There are still expectations of a raw material shortage and cost increase in the long - term asphalt market [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On February 9, 2026, compared with February 6, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) fell 52 points to 3334, a decline of 1.54%; BU2604 fell 54 points to 3347, a decline of 1.59%; BU2605 fell 48 points to 3341, a decline of 1.42%; SC2603 fell 1.2 points to 464.2, a decline of 0.26%; Brent first - line fell 1 point to 67.34, a decline of 1.49%. The main contract position decreased by 1.6 million hands to 6.7 million hands, a decline of 18.95%, and the trading volume decreased by 3.9 million hands to 12.3 million hands, a decline of 24.22%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 40,070 tons [2] - **Basis and Spread**: BU04 - 05 decreased by 6 points to 6, a decline of 50%; BU04 - 03 increased by 2 points to - 13, an increase of 13.33%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 24 points to - 7, an increase of 77.42%; the East - China - main contract basis increased by 64 points to - 87, an increase of 42.38%; the South - China - main contract basis increased by 54 points to - 37, an increase of 59.34% [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price fell 30 points to 3210, a decline of 0.93%; the East - China market price increased 10 points to 3260, an increase of 0.31%; the South - China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline increased 13 points to 7183, an increase of 0.18%; Shandong diesel fell 35 points to 5613, a decline of 0.62%; Shandong petroleum coke fell 20 points to 2760, a decline of 0.72%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price fell 0.01 to 6.9523, a decline of 0.10% [2] - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit increased 27.44 to - 50.98, an increase of 34.99%; the refined - oil comprehensive profit increased 37.03 to - 99.38, an increase of 27.14%; the BU - SC cracking decreased 39.03 to - 426.71, a decline of 10.07%; the gasoline spot - Brent increased 68.12 to 734.38, an increase of 10.23%; the diesel spot - Brent increased 25.65 to 35, an increase of 274.27% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: On February 9, the domestic asphalt market average price remained unchanged at 3324 yuan/ton. In the north, terminal projects were stagnant, and prices were stable. In the south, the rush - work demand decreased, and prices were firm. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3220 - 3230 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3260 - 3260 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: The asphalt market follows crude oil due to geopolitical factors. Demand is weakening, but low inventory and supply support stable prices. There are still expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases in the long - term [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides charts including BU main - contract closing price, BU main - contract position, East - China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline, and Shandong refinery diesel [9]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market has shown relative stability at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both futures and spot markets despite a drop in crude oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main asphalt futures contract opened with a premium exceeding 200 yuan/ton after the New Year holiday, ultimately rising by 111 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot market also experienced a substantial increase, with average price rises between 130 to 150 yuan/ton [1]. - The valuation of asphalt has significantly increased, with the asphalt-to-Brent crude oil ratio rising above 1.03 for futures and reaching 1.02 for spot prices, both at historically high seasonal levels [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market fundamentals remained relatively healthy in 2025, with effective inventory reduction leading to low inventory levels, particularly in factory stocks [2]. - Despite high profits for refineries in 2025, the winter storage prices were unexpectedly high, indicating a tight supply situation [2]. - There is a potential for significant contraction in asphalt demand in 2026, which could lead to increased production by refineries due to current high profit margins [2]. Group 3: Price Pressures and Future Outlook - The recent rapid increase in asphalt prices has likely already reflected positive expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicators, which could downgrade demand expectations and weaken valuation support [3]. - The ability to maintain price premiums will largely depend on fluctuations in crude oil costs, with the current crude oil market lacking a clear breakout logic [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for asphalt is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly due to financial constraints on road projects and shrinking housing new construction areas. The cost side will be a more important concern. Oil prices will face supply pressure at least in the first half of 2026, and the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, the price may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [3][70][71] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Annual Review of Asphalt Market - **Domestic Supply Increase and Resilient Imports**: From January to November 2025, the national petroleum asphalt production reached 26.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in supply was mainly due to the decline in international oil prices and the widening discount of diluted asphalt. Local refineries' production was more volatile, with an output of 14.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, while the output of major refineries was 12.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.02%. In the same period, the domestic asphalt import volume reached 3.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with Middle Eastern asphalt gradually squeezing the market share of Southeast Asian countries [17][26] - **Demand Growth Driven by Road Project Deliveries**: In 2025, as the end - year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, road construction projects entered the concentrated delivery period. From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt reached 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25%, with a 25% year - on - year increase in the third quarter. However, highway investment continued to decline, and the waterproofing market demand was weak due to the low real - estate climate [28] 2. Persistent Tight Funds, Road Demand Hard to Improve Substantially - **New Road Construction**: Most road construction projects rely on government fiscal funds or special bonds. Currently, local governments face significant financial pressure, making it difficult for project funds to be in place in a timely manner. Although the new special bond issuance increased in 2025, the funds available for new road projects continued to shrink [37][38] - **Road Maintenance**: The maintenance funds for expressways and ordinary national and provincial roads are facing shortages. The establishment of toll stations can only meet their own funding needs, and the overall road maintenance fund gap will exist for a long time [40] 3. Refineries without Quotas Gradually Exit, No Excessive Concerns about Raw Material Imports - **Exit of Refineries without Quotas under New Consumption Tax Deduction Policy**: Since 2025, Shandong Province has adjusted the consumption tax deduction policy for local refineries, which has led to an increase in asphalt production costs. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 40% year - on - year, and many small and medium - sized local refineries without quotas have stopped production [43][44] - **Limited Impact of US Sanctions on Raw Material Imports**: Although the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, the supply of asphalt raw materials remains stable overall. In 2025, the import of Merey crude oil increased significantly, and other oil types such as Urals, Buzios, and Mero also became important supplements [52][54] 4. International Oil Prices are Still Suppressed by Supply Release, Cost - Side Rebound is Restricted - **Supply Growth in Non - US and Non - OPEC+ Countries**: In 2026, the global crude oil production is expected to reach 79.55 million barrels per day, with non - US and non - OPEC+ countries contributing an incremental supply of 230,000 barrels per day. Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will be the main sources of supply growth [61] - **Inventory Pressure**: Since September 2025, the global crude oil floating storage has increased sharply. If the floating storage is released into the market, it will put pressure on oil prices in the first half of 2026 [67] 5. Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline in the first half of the year. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, it may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [71]