行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日 ...

Market Overview - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market is expected to be 3375 CNY/ton on November 17, reflecting a decrease of 32 CNY/ton, or 0.94% from the previous day [1] - The total operating rate of asphalt in China has decreased by 0.7% to 29.0%, while the operating rate in Shandong has increased by 6.8% to 35.4% [1] - Social inventory among 70 sample enterprises is reported at 825,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,000 tons [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil [2] - Refineries are releasing a significant amount of low-priced forward contracts, leading to substantial pressure on spot prices [3] - The operating rate may slightly decline due to profit margins falling, and adverse weather conditions are expected to limit downstream demand in certain regions [3] Price Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with weak spot prices and a neutral basis for asphalt in Shandong [2] - Given the dual decline in supply and demand, with supply decreasing at a slower rate than demand, the outlook for asphalt prices remains bearish [3]

Group 1 - The domestic crude oil futures market showed a strong performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a price increase of 2.34%, reaching a high of 3234.00 yuan/ton [1] - Industry data for the third week of October indicates an increase in both supply and demand from refineries, although the absolute demand remains low, aligning with historical lows [1] - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term, with price support at the bottom due to stable inventory levels [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, demand in the northern regions is expected to decline as temperatures drop, while southern regions may see a boost in consumption once rainfall decreases [2] - The recent trial reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not expanded further, leading to price disparities in the southern regions due to restrictions from crude oil quotas and consumption taxes [2] - Overall, the current peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations, and there is a focus on upcoming macroeconomic meetings for potential demand growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is currently experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term due to low terminal demand and unstable cost support from international crude oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 11, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory remained stable at 39,350 tons, while the warehouse futures inventory was also unchanged at 42,950 tons [1]. - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.9% for the week ending July 9, reflecting a 0.8% increase week-on-week, with a weekly asphalt production of 566,000 tons, up 2.4% from the previous week [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, marking a 1.0% increase week-on-week [1]. - The planned production volume for asphalt refineries nationwide in July is expected to remain consistent with May and June levels, with the East China region experiencing an earlier end to the rainy season compared to previous years, providing a favorable market condition [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that oil prices are operating within a range, and asphalt prices are expected to remain volatile. Recent shipping volumes have significantly decreased, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The demand during the peak season has not exceeded market expectations, and attention should be paid to inventory depletion in the short term [2]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the current asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the operating load of enterprises is low, changes are limited. The terminal demand remains sluggish, leading to a cautious market sentiment among downstream users and traders. The cost support from international crude oil prices is also unstable, suggesting that asphalt prices will likely continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for asphalt has shown significant activity, with the main contract opening at 3493.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3532.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.44% [1] - As of June 10, the total shipment volume of asphalt from 54 domestic enterprises was 434,000 tons, representing a week-on-week decrease of 4.0%. Notably, the North China and East China regions experienced significant changes in shipment volumes [1] - The total inventory level of asphalt in domestic refineries is at 30.29%, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%, while the social inventory rate is at 34.80%, with a slight increase of 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that asphalt futures prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, with supply remaining at a low to medium level and demand aligning with seasonal trends [2] - Current operating rates for asphalt enterprises are at a relatively high level for the year, but still low compared to previous years, indicating a subdued overall demand [2] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are expected to influence asphalt prices, with recommendations for a cautious trading approach focusing on market oscillations [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Weekly Report - Fluctuating with Costs [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view: It was the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season would affect demand, weakening the strength of asphalt, but it was still expected to be stronger than crude oil products in the same period [7] - This week's price trend: This week, asphalt fluctuated in place, generally following the cost-side crude oil without additional upward momentum [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries increased, and both factory and social inventories were at low levels compared to the same period, providing some support for pricing before the peak season. However, the impact of the rainy season on demand needed to be considered in the short term [7] - This week's view: It is still the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season will affect demand, and the recent repair of asphalt profits has boosted the willingness to start work. It is expected that the previous relative strength will be weakened [7] Group 4: Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The report presents data on asphalt futures trends, monthly spreads (BU6 - BU9), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data includes asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Data on asphalt shipments, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption from 2020 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - The report shows data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Information on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes from 2021 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Data on Shandong's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The report includes data on East China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Information on South China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table shows the maintenance information of multiple refineries, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time. The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 20.36 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 738,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33]

Group 1 - The asphalt spot price in East China on May 26 was quoted at 3580.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 54.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 3526.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market saw the main asphalt contract close at 3526.00 CNY/ton on May 26, with a slight increase of 0.06%, reaching a high of 3544.00 CNY/ton and a low of 3493.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 255,407 lots [2] - The latest asphalt shipment volume was 435,000 tons, reflecting an increase of 43,000 tons compared to the previous period [3] Group 2 - As of May 22, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 54,000 tons, while the inventory of 104 sample traders fell by 16,000 tons [4] - According to a report from Zhonghui Futures, while costs are a drag, downstream demand remains relatively optimistic, leading to asphalt prices performing better than crude oil. The current supply-demand imbalance is not pronounced, with demand showing an upward trend, particularly stronger in the north compared to the south [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a marginal improvement. The supply in the north is tight, while that in the east and south is relatively abundant. The positives include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. The negatives are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, with short - term prices remaining weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. It is recommended to monitor actual inventory conditions and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and it is advisable to consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1] Group 2: Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - From April 24th to April 30th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 22 yuan to 3408 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased by 22 to 112 [1] Other Prices - The FOB price from South Korea to East China remained at 463, and the RMB - converted price decreased by 1 to 4076 yuan. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4260 yuan [1] Production and Inventory - The daily asphalt production is 6.3 (+0) million tons. This week, factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with overall stable inventories [1] Market Conditions - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly [1]