Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current oversupply situation in the nickel market, highlighting the increasing inventory levels and the implications for future prices [2][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - On March 18, 2025, the main nickel contract opened at 133,860 CNY/ton and closed at 129,490 CNY/ton, marking a daily decline of 2.87% [2][4]. - Nickel prices have fallen below 130,000 CNY/ton, reversing gains made over the previous two weeks [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of March 17, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 200,900 tons, marking the first time it surpassed 200,000 tons [6]. - SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,500 tons to 28,200 tons, a 5.56% increase week-on-week [6]. - Domestic social inventory increased by 4,500 tons to 49,200 tons, reflecting a 9.96% week-on-week rise [6]. Group 3: Production Insights - As of February 2025, electrolytic nickel monthly production was 29,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [6]. - Despite a slight decrease in production due to the Spring Festival, production rates are expected to rise as new lines come online in East China [6]. Group 4: Indonesian Policy Changes - The Indonesian government proposed adjustments to nickel tax rates, suggesting an increase from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19% for nickel ore [8][9]. - New regulations regarding the calculation of metal mineral benchmark prices (HMA) were introduced, with updates occurring twice a month [9]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - The article suggests that the recent price rebound in nickel may be limited due to high inventory levels and the expectation of increased supply as the rainy season ends [12]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with a recommendation for investors to observe the situation closely [2][12].