Summary of the Conference Call for Greenme (格林美) Company Overview - **Company**: Greenme (格林美) - **Industry**: Nickel and Cobalt Recycling, Tungsten Recovery, Battery Recycling Key Points and Arguments Nickel Project Performance - The Indonesian MHP project shipped over 110,000 tons in 2025, with the company's equity share around 50%-55% and costs controlled between $8,500 and $9,000 per ton. Nickel price increases have ensured project profitability, with total shipments expected to reach 140,000-150,000 tons by 2026, and the company's equity share projected at 75,000-80,000 tons [2][4][8] Tungsten Recovery Business - The tungsten recovery business is expected to grow significantly, with recovery volume projected to increase to around 10,000 tons by 2025, driven by rising tungsten prices. This segment's revenue is anticipated to improve substantially due to price increases and capacity expansion [2][4][8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is adjusting its precursor strategy by reducing low-margin products and shifting focus to high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel products. The cobalt tetroxide business is expected to grow steadily, with annual shipments of over 20,000 tons and a normal growth rate of 5%-10% anticipated for 2026 [2][4][8] Appliance Recycling and Scrap Vehicle Business - The appliance recycling business is expected to be divested in 2026, with an estimated loss of over 100 million yuan impacting 2025 profits. The scrap vehicle business is reducing losses, projected to decrease from over 150 million yuan in 2023 to below 100 million yuan in 2024, and is expected to synergize with the battery recycling business [5][6] Battery Recycling Business - The battery recycling segment has maintained profitability and is expanding, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in recovery volume expected in 2025. The business is projected to continue its strong profitability in 2026 due to rising lithium prices [7][8] Nickel Price Forecast - The company expects nickel prices to stabilize in the range of $18,000-$19,000 per ton in 2026, with a projected increase of about 20% compared to 2025. The Indonesian government is implementing quota controls to stabilize the nickel resource market [3][10][15][16] Financial Costs and Impact - Financial costs are calculated based on investment intensity, working capital needs, and turnover rates. The company faces higher costs in foreign operations due to dollar-denominated expenses [9] Market Dynamics and Government Regulations - The Indonesian government controls approximately 60% of global nickel resources and aims to prevent significant price drops through regulatory measures. This aligns with the government's goal of promoting the development of new energy applications through industrial upgrades [16][17] New Capacity and Project Progress - New projects in collaboration with Vale began construction in 2025, with an expected completion date by the end of 2026. However, potential policy adjustments may delay the timeline [18][19] Recovery Business Details - The company recycles various products, including scrap tools and hard alloys, primarily containing tungsten and cobalt. The annual shipment volume is expected to reach 10,000 tons by 2026, with a gross margin maintained between 15%-20% [20][21] Market Share and Competitive Position - The market share for the company's APP terminal products is estimated to be between 10%-20%, although specific data requires confirmation from business departments [23] Pricing Strategies - The company has established long-term pricing agreements with suppliers, with coverage ratios between 60%-70%. The pricing for long-term contracts has increased compared to the previous year [26] Impact of Competitors - The new projects by Qingshan Company are not expected to significantly impact Greenme, as Qingshan's supply to Greenme is minimal [28] Production Capacity - The company’s maximum production capacity is 150,000 tons, with quarterly production expected to range between 36,000 to 39,000 tons, limiting the potential for significant overproduction [29] Inventory Management - Inventory absorption is expected in the third and fourth quarters, primarily through nickel-cobalt hydroxide rather than raw material sales due to tight raw material supplies [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current oversupply situation in the nickel market, highlighting the increasing inventory levels and the implications for future prices [2][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - On March 18, 2025, the main nickel contract opened at 133,860 CNY/ton and closed at 129,490 CNY/ton, marking a daily decline of 2.87% [2][4]. - Nickel prices have fallen below 130,000 CNY/ton, reversing gains made over the previous two weeks [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of March 17, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 200,900 tons, marking the first time it surpassed 200,000 tons [6]. - SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,500 tons to 28,200 tons, a 5.56% increase week-on-week [6]. - Domestic social inventory increased by 4,500 tons to 49,200 tons, reflecting a 9.96% week-on-week rise [6]. Group 3: Production Insights - As of February 2025, electrolytic nickel monthly production was 29,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [6]. - Despite a slight decrease in production due to the Spring Festival, production rates are expected to rise as new lines come online in East China [6]. Group 4: Indonesian Policy Changes - The Indonesian government proposed adjustments to nickel tax rates, suggesting an increase from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19% for nickel ore [8][9]. - New regulations regarding the calculation of metal mineral benchmark prices (HMA) were introduced, with updates occurring twice a month [9]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - The article suggests that the recent price rebound in nickel may be limited due to high inventory levels and the expectation of increased supply as the rainy season ends [12]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with a recommendation for investors to observe the situation closely [2][12].