格林美 20260130 摘要 格林美印尼 MHP 项目全年出货量超 11 万吨，公司权益量约 50%- 55%，成本控制在 8,500-9,000 美元/吨。镍价上涨保障了该项目盈利 能力，预计 2026 年总出货量将达 14-15 万吨，公司权益量 7.5-8 万吨。 钨回收业务显著增长，2025 年回收量增至 1 万吨左右，钨价上涨带动 收益大幅提升。预计 2026 年受益于价格上涨和产能扩张，收益将有较 好表现。 公司调整前驱体策略，减少低毛利产品，转向高镍、超高镍产品。四氧 化三钴业务稳定增长，年出货量约 2 万多吨，预计 2026 年将有 5%- 10%的常态增长。 家电回收业务预计 2026 年剥离，对 2025 年利润影响约为亏损 1 亿多 元。报废汽车业务持续减亏，未来将与动力电池回收产生协同效应。 动力电池回收业务保持盈利并扩大规模，2025 年回收量同比增长近 50%。预计 2026 年受益于锂价上涨，将继续保持良好盈利能力。 镍矿价格上涨，2026 年较 2025 年涨幅约 20%。公司与印尼当地矿山 企业合作，确保镍矿供应，预计合作矿企将在 2026 年 2-3 月获得配额。 公司预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current oversupply situation in the nickel market, highlighting the increasing inventory levels and the implications for future prices [2][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - On March 18, 2025, the main nickel contract opened at 133,860 CNY/ton and closed at 129,490 CNY/ton, marking a daily decline of 2.87% [2][4]. - Nickel prices have fallen below 130,000 CNY/ton, reversing gains made over the previous two weeks [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of March 17, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 200,900 tons, marking the first time it surpassed 200,000 tons [6]. - SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,500 tons to 28,200 tons, a 5.56% increase week-on-week [6]. - Domestic social inventory increased by 4,500 tons to 49,200 tons, reflecting a 9.96% week-on-week rise [6]. Group 3: Production Insights - As of February 2025, electrolytic nickel monthly production was 29,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [6]. - Despite a slight decrease in production due to the Spring Festival, production rates are expected to rise as new lines come online in East China [6]. Group 4: Indonesian Policy Changes - The Indonesian government proposed adjustments to nickel tax rates, suggesting an increase from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19% for nickel ore [8][9]. - New regulations regarding the calculation of metal mineral benchmark prices (HMA) were introduced, with updates occurring twice a month [9]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - The article suggests that the recent price rebound in nickel may be limited due to high inventory levels and the expectation of increased supply as the rainy season ends [12]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with a recommendation for investors to observe the situation closely [2][12].