1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets continue to show a volatile trend under macro - level pressure. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with long - term support from Indonesian policy on the cost side and suppression from the macro and supply - demand pattern. The stainless - steel market has a strong supply growth expectation compared to the demand side, but cost support remains, and it will follow the nickel price trend and maintain volatility in the short term [1][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,000 yuan/ton and closed at 133,480 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.42% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 442,345 (- 21,537) lots, and the open interest was 181,146 (+ 1,440) lots. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support from stainless - steel mills and new - energy vehicles, but it is in the off - season with limited improvement [1] Nickel Ore - The cost - side of raw materials has a stronger expectation of price increase, and the bargaining center of the nickel ore market continues to move up. In the Philippines, the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to a significant increase in nickel ore shipping costs and mining costs, and the price of Philippine nickel ore is under short - term pressure. In Indonesia, the approval progress of RKAB ore quotas is slow, and the premium of domestic trade nickel ore remains strong, with some premiums rising to $45 - 50 per wet ton [2] Spot - The domestic refined nickel spot market continues to show a weak and volatile trend, with a slight downward movement in the price center. The supply side has increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell goods, and some holders have lowered the premium to recover funds. The demand side has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with only rigid - demand users replenishing inventory at low prices. The trading is light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by - 300 yuan/ton to 6,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 58,006 (+ 374) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,888 (+ 96) tons [3] Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range volatile pattern in a macro - bearish environment. It is expected to remain in an interval - volatile state in the short term. The recommended strategy is mainly interval operation [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,070 yuan/ton and closed at 14,290 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 262,223 (+ 87,100) lots, and the open interest was 124,889 (- 4,171) lots. The supply side is expected to have a total production of 3.5364 million tons of stainless - steel crude steel in March, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The demand side has a slower - than - expected recovery in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, with only rigid - demand replenishment. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices. The spot market has seen some recovery in confidence, with an increase in inquiries and transactions [5] Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but cost support remains. The stainless - steel price will follow the nickel price trend in the short term and is expected to maintain volatility. The recommended strategy is neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the macro - risk increases, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the disk is in a volatile adjustment. The raw material end has accumulated contradictions, and the fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 134,000 - 145,000 [3]. - For stainless steel, the raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strengthening, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually recovering. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Supply - In February 2026, affected by holidays, the production data of refined nickel in China weakened. The output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. In March, the estimated output is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [3]. Demand - The demand side shows no obvious improvement. Downstream maintains a rigid procurement rhythm, and the spot trading is generally light. The overall demand of the electroplating downstream is relatively stable, with little room for growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounts for the majority, and the alloy demand in military and shipping industries is good. In March, stainless steel plants resumed production, but the current profit of steel plants is low, and large - scale procurement has not started after the holiday. The high price of MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but the demand is flat, and the price of nickel sulfate fluctuates mainly [3]. Inventory - Overseas inventory remains at a relatively high level, domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the bonded area inventory remains stable. As of March 13, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,866 tons; the SMM domestic six - region social inventory was 87,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,953 tons; the bonded area inventory was 2,200 tons, with no change week - on - week [3]. Cost - Due to the tightening of raw materials, the external procurement cost has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process has increased. On March 13, the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate was 153,900 yuan/ton, from externally purchased MHP was 146,400 yuan/ton, and from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte was 143,100 yuan/ton. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from Indonesia's integrated MHP was 113,300 yuan/ton, and the production cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process was 141,700 yuan/ton [3]. Basis - The mainstream premium and discount quotation of SHFE nickel 2604 is 6,500 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week; the real - time converted premium and discount range of Jinchuan nickel's ex - factory price in Shanghai area to the SHFE disk is 2,870 - 7,320 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared with last week. The mainstream premium and discount quotation of Russian nickel to SHFE nickel 2604 is - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation remains the same as last week [3]. Stainless Steel Raw Materials - The supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia has further intensified. During the Ramadan, the supply release rhythm has slowed down, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the price of wet - process ore continues to rise. The premium on the main island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and that on the outer island has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton. The tender price of Philippine mines continues to rise. The tender price of 1.3% grade in Benguet this week is 54 US dollars/ton (FOB), a further increase of 2 US dollars compared with last week. The price center of the high - grade nickel pig iron market has steadily moved up, and some scattered orders have been traded in the market [4]. Supply - According to Mysteel statistics, in February 2026, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 2.695 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 841,400 tons, a decrease of 23.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.32%. The output of 300 - series was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 538,700 tons, a decrease of 28.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%. In March, the estimated crude steel production of stainless steel is 3.6795 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 984,500 tons, an increase of 36.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. Among them, the output of 300 - series is 1.9008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 581,400 tons, an increase of 44.07%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05%. Steel plants have completed most of their maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the overall production schedule in March has increased [4]. Inventory - The social inventory is steadily being digested, the warehouse receipts remain stable, and the inventory pressure has marginally improved. As of March 12, the social inventory of 300 - series in Wuxi and Foshan was 532,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,400 tons. On March 13, the stainless steel futures inventory on the SHFE was 51,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 713 tons [4]. Basis and Cost - As of March 13, the spot price of Wuxi Hongwang 304/2B 2.0 is 14,450 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week; the basis is 430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Recently, the cost center has increased. The cold - rolling cash cost of high - grade nickel pig iron is 14,640.04 yuan/ton, and the production cost of cold - rolled products from scrap stainless steel is 14,364.47 yuan/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment soared due to the shutdown of production capacities of four Indonesian enterprises, but then nickel prices fell again as the positive factors were digested and the international situation changed. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to the cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints** - For Shanghai nickel, this week, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply in March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, the inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - **Strategies** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [7][83]. - The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [8][83]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $74 to $77, a rise of 4.05%; the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $69 to $72, a rise of 4.35% [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased from 31,750 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%; the price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) increased from 1,090 yuan/nickel point to 1,100 yuan/nickel point, a rise of 0.92% [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 144,160 yuan/ton to 144,970 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.56%; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 137,060 yuan/ton to 138,020 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144,400 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,112.5 yuan/ton to 15,087.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17% [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: The nickel ore price increased by $3/wet ton this week, and the ocean freight increased by $5/wet ton. - **Inventory**: On March 12, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.5834 million wet tons, a decrease of 659,900 wet tons or 7.14% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 8.2334 million wet tons, a decrease of 604,900 wet tons or 6.84%; the nickel ore from other countries was 350,000 wet tons, a decrease of 55,000 wet tons or 13.58% [16]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% month - on - month, and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [16]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Purchase**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the price strengthened due to the shutdown of four Indonesian wet - smelting plants, but then fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream maintained rigid demand purchases [22]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. The estimated output in March 2026 is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 5,100 tons or 27.88%. The net import of refined nickel in this month was 10,097.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 525.23%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 231,188.825 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133,916 tons or 137.67%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,370 tons or 21.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3,839 tons or 22.40% [33]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons, including 56,462 tons of futures inventory. The total inventory was 83,746 tons, an increase of 2,397 tons from the previous week [38]. 2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of low - nickel iron decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of high - nickel iron increased by 10 yuan/nickel to 1,100 yuan/nickel [44]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 21,100 tons in metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the output of low - nickel pig iron was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% [46]. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.1149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 217,200 tons or 24.2% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel [52]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four places) decreased by 25 yuan/ton this week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Output**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that the stainless steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons [67]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively [72]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative output was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6% [75]. 3. Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, the demand in Indonesia provides strong support, and the mine quotations are firm [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost support is strong [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. The output increases, and the inventory is at a high level [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory decreases slightly but is still at a high level, and the consumption is weak [81]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and the output decreases significantly month - on - month [81]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average; the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market shows a trend of oscillation and strength. On March 9th, four Indonesian hydrometallurgical plants entered a shutdown and maintenance phase due to a landslide accident caused by improper tailings disposal last month. The expected shutdown period will last for several weeks. The four projects involved in the production cut have a combined annual capacity of about 150,000 metal tons, and the monthly production is expected to be affected by about 9,000 - 10,000 metal tons. The tightening supply and cost support resonate, providing a bottom - up effect on nickel prices. Policy - wise, although the Indonesian government's attitude towards quotas has been inconsistent, the quota increase expectation may not be confirmed before July, and the core logic of the tightening nickel ore supply remains unchanged. However, price fluctuations caused by the exit of speculative funds and the shift in macro - expectations need to be watched out for [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - **Nickel Price**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract opened at 141,550 yuan/ton last week, closed at 137,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,550 yuan/ton and a low of 134,480 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.12% [9]. - **Nickel Ore Price**: As of March 6th, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content increased by 1, 3.5, and 6 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared to last week, reaching 31, 74, and 87.5 US dollars/wet ton. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% increased by 2 and 5 US dollars/wet ton respectively to 25 and 68.7 US dollars/wet ton [3][31]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of February 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production decreased by 0.31 million tons to 3.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.22% and a year - on - year increase of 22.18%. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 7,999 tons to 84,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.45% [3][43][45]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of February 2026, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 1.71 million tons to 115,000 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.94%. As of March 6th, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point to 1,089 yuan/nickel point, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [3][24][62]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly production decreased by 3,251 tons to 30,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67%. The demand for battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel is in a weak post - holiday recovery state [3][56]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected that in March 2026, China's stainless steel crude steel production will be 3.6335 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.69% and a year - on - year increase of 3.46%. As of March 6th, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 22,700 tons to 1.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.94% [3][72][75]. Industry News Updates - On March 9, 2026, four hydrometallurgical projects in the IMIP Park in Indonesia entered a shutdown and maintenance phase due to a landslide in the shared tailings treatment area in February, with the shutdown expected to last for several weeks. These four projects have a combined capacity of 150,000 nickel metal tons, and they produced 108,200 nickel metal tons of MHP in 2025 [7]. - On March 2, 2026, the Secretary of the Director of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revealed that in calculating the country's non - tax revenue, the nickel ore production target for 2026 is 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the approved RKAB quota of 260 - 270 million tons [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) said that the revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July. The revised RKAB is expected to increase this year's nickel production quota by up to 30% [7]. - On February 26, 2026, a fire broke out at the Indonesian Huafei Nickel Cobalt Company in the Indonesian Wedabay Industrial Park, caused by a small amount of rainwater seeping into the quicklime storage warehouse due to a sudden rainstorm. There were no casualties and the property loss was minimal [7]. - Jutai's refined nickel project has been officially put into production, with a capacity of 300,000 tons. It is expected to be launched in the market next month, with a planned output of 1,000 to 1,500 tons in March [7]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province for mining in forest areas without a forest area use permit (PPKH) [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, affected by the double impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, the nickel ore trading in the Philippines was light and supply was limited. In Indonesia, the tightening of RKAB mining quotas and the approaching of the rainy season and Ramadan restricted supply growth. Overall, the price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - The price of high - nickel pig iron in February was strong, with the average price rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point. The upstream price support was strong, and the downstream rigid demand procurement drove the price up [12]. - The nickel intermediate product market in February showed a clear differentiation. The supply of MHP was reduced, and the price and nickel coefficient increased. The supply - demand of high - grade nickel matte was weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - In February, the nickel price rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. The domestic social inventory increased by 7391 tons to 76,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term. The operating range of Shanghai nickel in March is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and the operating range of LME 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was limited, and the supply growth in Indonesia was restricted. The overall price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron was strong, with the upstream supporting the price and the downstream rigid demand increasing the volume [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The MHP market was in short supply, and the high - grade nickel matte market was weak. The price of sulfur declined [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The price rose slightly in February, the domestic social inventory increased, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile. It was recommended to operate in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton for LME 3M contract [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price was in a high - level wide - range shock in February. It fell sharply at the beginning of the month and then rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of February 27, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.46% month - on - month [17]. - The import nickel premium was stable at a low level after the Spring Festival, indicating a loose spot supply [19]. - The nickel iron price rose steadily, the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron returned to normal, and the nickel sulfate price fluctuated with the nickel price [22]. 3. Cost Side - The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rose to 70.24 US dollars per ton, and the price of wet - process ore rose to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][30]. - In January, the nickel iron output in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron [33]. - In January, due to the sharp increase in MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron, the output of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly [37]. - The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [40][42]. 4. Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the national refined nickel output was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [47]. - In January 2026, the domestic stainless steel output was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November, and the inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [50]. - Global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 9073 tons compared with the same period last month [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate output was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [61][63]. - The production profit rate of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the global primary nickel supply was generally on the rise, and the demand also showed an upward trend. There was a supply surplus in each period, and the surplus showed an increasing trend [69]. - The supply - demand gap of global refined nickel also showed an increasing trend in general, and the proportion of the supply - demand gap in the overall supply - demand situation was relatively large [69]. - The global refined nickel visible inventory continued to increase [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The tight supply situation of nickel ore has boosted the continuous rise of nickel and stainless steel. Due to the contraction expectation of nickel ore supply and macro - factors, nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel opened at 139,000 yuan/ton and closed at 141,250 yuan/ton, a 2.32% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 221,614 (+88,557) lots, and the open interest was 38,264 (37,428) lots. The overnight LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915/ton, and the global non - ferrous metal sector generally rose, boosting the confidence of domestic Shanghai nickel bulls. The domestic non - ferrous metals in the commodity market were all in the green, and Shanghai nickel followed the sector to strengthen with obvious capital inflow [1] - **Nickel Ore**: After the Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market gradually recovered. The Indonesian market slightly declined due to the benchmark price adjustment, but the price of imported Philippine ore continued to rise. Philippine mines' quotes continued to rise, while the domestic market mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude [1] - **Spot**: The nickel price continued to rise during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel turned cold. Most traders still used the Shanghai nickel 2603 as the quotation contract. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were generally stable, and the spot premium of Jinchuan resources continued to decline. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 350 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,177 (1253) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 287,808 (480) tons [2] Strategy - The supply of nickel ore is expected to remain in a contraction state due to Indonesian policies and the rainy season. Coupled with macro - factors, the nickel price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend. However, the price is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the main contract 2604 of stainless steel opened at 14,150 yuan/ton and closed at 14,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,416 (+33,299) lots, and the open interest was 84,875 (-4,171) lots. The stainless steel main contract opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed with a small positive line, following the non - ferrous metal sector to operate strongly, with a smaller increase than Shanghai nickel. The overnight LME nickel rose sharply, and LME copper/LME tin also strengthened synchronously. The domestic non - ferrous futures were all in the green, and stainless steel followed the sector sentiment to rise, with a dominant long - side atmosphere. The Shanghai nickel 2603 rose 2.32%, the nickel iron price rebounded, and the cost line of stainless steel increased, providing bottom support for the futures price [3] - **Spot**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work was gradually promoted. The inquiring and trading activities in the spot market increased, and traders' quotes rose. The market had a preliminary expectation of the demand recovery in March. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (+100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+150) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 135 to 335 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 16.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,070.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Affected by the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and the support of the nickel price at the cost end, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend. However, the price is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to continuous fermentation of the Indonesian nickel mine event, nickel prices are in high - level oscillations. Near the Spring Festival, prices are expected to fluctuate, and interval operations are recommended. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips [2][3][4] - For the stainless - steel market, influenced by the cost support from nickel and factors such as pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, prices are also expected to fluctuate near the Spring Festival. Interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips can be considered when the price drops substantially [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 139,960 yuan/ton and closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 433,838 (-84,787) lots, and the open interest was 70,629 (-5,811) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose with a reduction in positions and closed up. Driven by the significant reduction of the Indonesian nickel mine quota policy, the price rebounded strongly, but near the Spring Festival, funds and trading were cautious. On February 11, the Indonesian government planned to significantly cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel. Its ore production quota this year dropped from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a decrease of up to 71%, far exceeding market expectations [2] - **Nickel Mines**: The RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. With a large - scale mine's quota reduced by over 70%, the premium of Indonesian nickel mines continued to rise, driving up the nickel - iron quotation. The supply of nickel mines was tight, and the premium of some large - island Indonesian nickel mines rose to 32 - 35 US dollars/wet ton, strongly supporting the bottom price of nickel - iron. In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased significantly due to raw - material shortages and pre - holiday centralized maintenance of some projects. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in February. Currently, the quotes of high - nickel pig iron from suppliers are mainly concentrated around 1,060 - 1,070 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the market quotes tend to rise [3] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 149,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market basically entered the vacation state, and spot transactions were suspended. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined - nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 750 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 (636) tons [3] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 14,190 yuan/ton and closed at 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 (+3,307) lots, and the open interest was 100,602 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened high and closed low, fluctuating and closing down. Supported by the cost of Shanghai nickel but suppressed by pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, its overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. Near the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises basically stopped work, spot - market transactions were suspended, and traders gradually took holidays. Stainless - steel social inventories entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and supply pressure gradually emerged [4][5] - **Spot**: Spot trading was basically suspended, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,051.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5] Figures - There are 14 figures in the report, including LME closing price and spot price, Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price and SMM spot price, refined - nickel import profit and loss, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts, SMM nickel six - region total inventory, red - soil nickel - ore mainstream quotes, Chinese mainstream nickel - iron prices, Chinese mainstream imported chrome - ore prices, main - producing - area high - carbon ferrochrome prices, Foshan stainless - steel coil prices, 304/2B cold - rolled stainless - steel coil prices, 304 stainless - steel mainstream production profit margins, and stainless - steel total inventory. The data sources mainly include SMM and Mysteel [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]