新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 市场分析 2026-02-25日沪镍主力合约2605开于139000元/吨，收于141250元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化2.32%，当日成交量为 221614（+88557）手，持仓量为38264（37428）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约强势收涨，日内先抑后扬，资金与情绪共振推升价格。隔夜LME镍大涨3.64%至 17,915 美元/吨，叠加全球有色金属板块普涨，提振国内沪镍多头信心。今日国内商品市场有色全线飘红，沪镍跟随板块 走强，资金流入明显。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，节后镍矿市场交投氛围逐步恢复。印尼市场因基准价调整小幅回调，但进口菲律宾 矿价格持续走高；菲律宾矿山报价延续涨势，国内市场则暂以观望为主。 现货方面：日内镍价继续走高，精炼镍现货成交整体转冷。沪镍主力合约更换至2605合约，但贸易商多数仍使用 沪镍2603作为报价合约，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水整体持稳，金川资源现货升水继续回落。其中金川镍升水变化-350 元/吨至8550元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为53177 （1 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to continuous fermentation of the Indonesian nickel mine event, nickel prices are in high - level oscillations. Near the Spring Festival, prices are expected to fluctuate, and interval operations are recommended. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips [2][3][4] - For the stainless - steel market, influenced by the cost support from nickel and factors such as pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, prices are also expected to fluctuate near the Spring Festival. Interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips can be considered when the price drops substantially [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 139,960 yuan/ton and closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 433,838 (-84,787) lots, and the open interest was 70,629 (-5,811) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose with a reduction in positions and closed up. Driven by the significant reduction of the Indonesian nickel mine quota policy, the price rebounded strongly, but near the Spring Festival, funds and trading were cautious. On February 11, the Indonesian government planned to significantly cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel. Its ore production quota this year dropped from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a decrease of up to 71%, far exceeding market expectations [2] - **Nickel Mines**: The RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. With a large - scale mine's quota reduced by over 70%, the premium of Indonesian nickel mines continued to rise, driving up the nickel - iron quotation. The supply of nickel mines was tight, and the premium of some large - island Indonesian nickel mines rose to 32 - 35 US dollars/wet ton, strongly supporting the bottom price of nickel - iron. In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased significantly due to raw - material shortages and pre - holiday centralized maintenance of some projects. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in February. Currently, the quotes of high - nickel pig iron from suppliers are mainly concentrated around 1,060 - 1,070 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the market quotes tend to rise [3] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 149,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market basically entered the vacation state, and spot transactions were suspended. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined - nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 750 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 (636) tons [3] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 14,190 yuan/ton and closed at 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 (+3,307) lots, and the open interest was 100,602 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened high and closed low, fluctuating and closing down. Supported by the cost of Shanghai nickel but suppressed by pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, its overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. Near the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises basically stopped work, spot - market transactions were suspended, and traders gradually took holidays. Stainless - steel social inventories entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and supply pressure gradually emerged [4][5] - **Spot**: Spot trading was basically suspended, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,051.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5] Figures - There are 14 figures in the report, including LME closing price and spot price, Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price and SMM spot price, refined - nickel import profit and loss, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts, SMM nickel six - region total inventory, red - soil nickel - ore mainstream quotes, Chinese mainstream nickel - iron prices, Chinese mainstream imported chrome - ore prices, main - producing - area high - carbon ferrochrome prices, Foshan stainless - steel coil prices, 304/2B cold - rolled stainless - steel coil prices, 304 stainless - steel mainstream production profit margins, and stainless - steel total inventory. The data sources mainly include SMM and Mysteel [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Indonesia's nickel mining policy significantly impacts global nickel prices, with recent announcements leading to a notable increase in nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [1][3][23] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining production target of 260 to 270 million tons for 2026, with major mines like Weda Bay Nickel receiving a reduced approval rate of only 30% [1][3][10] - The tightening of supply due to policy changes has led to a significant price increase, with the SHFE nickel futures contract reaching a high of 140,230 and closing at 139,360, marking a daily increase of 4.51% [1][3][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the synergistic support for nickel prices from both endogenous and exogenous factors, suggesting that the current market conditions do not warrant a bearish outlook on nickel prices [2][11] - Exogenous factors include the strengthening of nickel's financial attributes and its strategic metal positioning, while endogenous factors highlight structural shortages in the spot market and rising industry costs that limit price declines [2][11] - The overall expectation is that the main price range for SHFE nickel will stabilize between 135,000 and 140,000, with potential catalysts from future policy adjustments [2][23] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that Indonesia's nickel mining policies have been inconsistent, often leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations and prices [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy revisions and quota distributions, particularly in February and March, as well as the mid-year review of the RKAB [24] - The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to face challenges, with potential shortfalls if the government implements strict policies too quickly [8][10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 宏观情绪有所修复，镍价震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-09日沪镍主力合约2603开于133020元/吨，收于134520元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.45%，当日成交量为 417105（-137339）手，持仓量为83976（-1500）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约探底回升，美元指数走弱，伦镍隔夜涨 1.03% 带动内盘氛围回暖；国内资金向有色 金属板块流入，为沪镍提供流动性支撑，前期超跌后空头止损推动价格反弹。此外，镍矿价格持稳，镍铁成本支 撑存在，部分高成本冶炼厂减产预期抬头，供应边际收缩预期对价格形成一定支撑。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场整体表现平静，价格持稳运行。随着春节假期临近，市场参与者逐步 减少，交投氛围趋于清淡，买卖双方均以观望为主，价格在高位维持平稳。国内工厂因原料成本高企，即期生产 压力较大，对当前价位的镍矿采购意愿低迷。考虑到长假因素，多数工厂以消耗现有库存、执行长协为主，暂停 了新的现货采购计划，市场实际成交稀少。印尼市场同样进入节前平稳期，未有新的重大成交或政策消息传出。 市场继续执行2月上半月的定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

宏观支撑减弱，现实压 力逐步体现 镍月报 2026/02/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：1月镍矿价格在菲律宾雨季扰动叠加LME镍价走强下明显上行。菲律宾方面，苏里高降雨致开采及驳船装运暂停，供应收紧支撑国内矿 价，中国港存进一步降至736万吨。印尼方面，湿法矿供需平稳、价格持稳；火法矿受强降雨叠加MOMS/RKAB核验与监管高压、矿方惜售，1.6% 品位镍矿到厂价涨至61.4美元/湿吨，后续基准价与升水预计仍偏强运行。 ◆ 镍铁：1月国内高镍生铁价格维持强势，月底SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1054元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受期现价差拉大及上游挺价推动。 印尼部分铁厂转产高冰镍叠加贸易商套利锁货，导致市场流通货源偏紧。下游虽处淡季，但期货上涨改善不锈钢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel futures market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in prices across global markets [1][2]. Market Performance - The latest closing price for London nickel (LME) is $17,060, down $270 per ton, a decrease of 1.56%, with a trading volume of 8,626 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel main contract (2603) closed at 134,250 yuan per ton, down 1,130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.83% [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is characterized by "oversupply and demand vacuum" ahead of the Spring Festival, with downstream industries like stainless steel and new energy battery manufacturers halting production and procurement [2]. - LME nickel inventory stands at 286,071 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous day, while global refined nickel production has increased by 22.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Chain Status - The entire nickel industry chain is in a state of dormancy, with upstream mining prices high but lacking domestic demand, and downstream processing enterprises experiencing a sharp decline in operating rates [3]. Short-term Price Forecast - The main contract for Shanghai nickel is expected to test the key support level of 130,000 yuan per ton, with multiple pressures from macroeconomic factors, weak fundamentals, and policy adjustments making price increases difficult [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, with light or no positions during the holiday, while traders should adopt a quick in-and-out strategy [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will shift back to fundamentals, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics as downstream production resumes, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4].

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]