宏观氛围积极，周期底 部渐明 镍月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：近期镍矿价格持稳运行为主。菲律宾方面，虽然国内镍铁价格下跌，需求走弱，但菲律宾主产区雨季即将到来，矿山挺价意愿偏强， 预计菲律宾镍矿价格短期或难有下跌。印尼方面，整体供需依旧宽松，但RKAB 最新一轮配额修订预计将在本月公布，随后将提交2026年的新 RKAB，出于对四季度及2026年RKAB审批额度的担忧，冶炼厂已加快备库，整体矿价下行空间有限。 ◆ 镍铁：近期镍铁价格有所走弱，主要系不锈钢社会库存去库速度较缓，旺季对不锈钢价格支撑有限，钢企采购意愿普遍低迷，带动镍铁价格走 弱。目前，市场逐步转向交易旺季之后的基本面悲观预期，预计后市仍有进一步下跌空间。 ◆ 中间品：供应端， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 假期有色行情提振，镍不锈钢价格拉涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-10-09日沪镍主力合约2511开于121300元/吨，收于124480元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化2.39%，当日成交量为 130864（+3674）手，持仓量为86038（9898）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开高走、震荡上行的态势。国庆长假期间，国内方面出台文旅与基建新政， 强化了新能源与高端制造对关键金属的中长期需求预期。叠加市场对四季度 "稳增长" 政策加码的期待，基本金属 板块风险偏好显著提升。沪镍高开或部分反映了资金对政策红利的提前布局。海外方面，美联储 9 月降息 25BP 落 地后，市场对 10 月下旬议息会议进一步宽松的押注升温。美元指数昨日微跌 0.10% 至 98.76 点，人民币汇率同 步走强（美元兑人民币报 7.1280，上涨 0.13%），降低了以美元计价的进口镍成本，同时增强了国内市场的风险资 产配置意愿。 镍矿方面：节后镍矿市场观望为主，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿山即将步入雨季，矿山报价延续 坚挺。近期，菲律宾棉兰地区发生地震，经Mysteel ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 星期五 | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 85740 | 83240 | +2500.00 | 3.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜开贴水 15 | JE | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 85700 | 83362 | +2335.00 | 2.80% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 30 | 90 | -60.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 85650 | 83145 | +2505.00 | 3.01% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 -75 | -80 | +5.00 | - | 元/肥 | | 精废价差 3400 | 3149 | +350.42 | 11.13% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -29 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 镍：底部运行，警惕供给端扰动 报告日期 2025-9-29 四季度报告 ⚫ 观点总结 展望四季度，美联储降息路径仍有不确定性，国内稳增长政策有望陆 续出台，"反内卷"叙事影响反复，镍价仍受到宏观事件带来的阶段 性影响。基本面来看，原生镍过剩格局延续，需求端暂难有起色，镍 价料底部盘整，价格对供给端扰动更为敏感，四季度重点关注矿端消 息及宏观变化，纯镍估值区间可关注一体化电积镍生产成本（随矿价 浮动）。操作上以短线区间为主，可持续通过卖出虚值看涨期权等组 合策略增厚收益，注意控制风险。 ⚫ 风险提示 资源国镍相关政策变动、国内外宏观消息扰动、镍库存变化 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 LME&SHFE 镍价格走势 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源：Wind 往期相关报告 1.基本面暂乏驱动，镍不锈钢宽幅 震荡 2025.08.20 2.不锈钢期货震荡反弹，关注期现 正套机会 2025.08.05 3.印尼 PNBP 镍新政落地，影响如 何？2025.04.17 投资观点： 区间震荡 | 镍（NI） | | --- | 分析师： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 宏观分歧渐起，镍不锈钢价格弱势震荡 市场分析 2025-09-23日沪镍主力合约2510开于121140元/吨，收于120730元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.58%，当日成交量 为52899（-13200）手，持仓量为37993（6250）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约低开低走，全天呈弱势震荡走势，最高121440元/吨，最低120500元/吨。宏观面来看， 继上周美联储降息 25 个基点后，美联储内部再现政策分歧，多位官员发声抑制降息预期，强调当前利率水平适宜， 对镍价形成一定压力。 镍矿方面：新一轮报价开出，菲律宾CNC矿山1.3%FOB31。近期受台风天气影响，部分沿海地区镍矿卸货受阻。 菲律宾方面，矿山报价维持坚挺。装船方面，苏里高等矿区未受影响，下游铁厂亏损仍存，对原料镍矿采购维持 谨慎压价心理。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。9月(二期)内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元，内贸升水方面， 当前升水维持+24，升水区间为+23-24。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格123000元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投有所升温，各品牌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]

8月中国未锻压镍出口量15048.344吨，环比减少497吨，降幅3.20%；同比增加2553吨，增幅20.43%。8 月中国未锻压镍净进口9378.5吨。2025年1-8月，中国精炼镍累计出口量11.93万吨，同比增加68.02%。 7月精炼镍进口大幅飙升，8月显著回落，但仍处于相对高位；8月精炼镍出口量保持平稳，净进口规模 环比下降明显。 据中国海关数据统计，中国2025年8月未锻压镍进口量为24,426.84吨，环比减少36.11%，同比上升 172.34%。2025年1-8月，中国精炼镍累计进口量15.86万吨，同比增加82%。 数据来源：海关总署 数据来源：海关总署 数据来源：海关总署 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the nickel price may decline to find a valuation bottom if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, but in the long - term, the nickel price is supported by the US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and the new RKAB approval, so it is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Grouping by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices were stable this week. In the Philippines, the weather improved, but due to the rising nickel - iron price, the subsequent mine quotes may increase. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand was loose, the wet - process ore price declined slightly, but the downward space was limited as smelters accelerated stockpiling due to concerns about RKAB quotas [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: The nickel - iron price was stable. The supply side had stable ore prices, and although the smelter's profit loss was repaired, it was still low, so smelters held back supply. The demand side was supported by the expected increase in steel mills' production in September, but steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement. The nickel - iron price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available goods was tight, increasing the sellers' bargaining power. The demand side entered the peak season, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP increased, leading to a higher MHP coefficient price [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and some funds cashed in previous expectations, pressuring the non - ferrous sector. The spot market trading was average, and the spot premium of refined nickel was stable [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Refined nickel prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, LME closing price, and SHFE closing price all decreased, with declines of - 0.06%, - 0.22%, - 0.79%, and - 0.39% respectively. The import loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.10% [16]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory, SHFE inventory, and nickel - plate spot inventory increased by 1.49%, 8.49%, and 5.72% respectively, while the nickel - bean spot inventory decreased by - 0.12%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [16]. - **Spot premium**: The Russian nickel spot premium to the near - month contract was 300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the Jinchuan nickel spot premium averaged 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The domestic high - nickel pig iron price was 949 - 960 yuan/nickel point, up 1 yuan/nickel point from last week, and the domestic nickel sulfate price was 28,020 - 28,220 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port nickel - ore inventory increased by 1.0% to 1400.1 million tons as of September 19. The nickel - ore prices were stable, with the 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore at 52.2 US dollars/wet ton and the 1.2% grade at 23 US dollars/wet ton, and the 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore at 57 US dollars/wet ton, all unchanged from last week [32][35]. - **Nickel - iron**: No specific new cost - related information was provided other than the production profit situation in previous periods [39]. - **Intermediate products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4000 tons month - on - month. As of September 19, the Indonesian MHP FOB price was 13,152 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient of 0.875 (up 0.005 from last week), and the high - grade nickel matte was 13,415 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient of 0.9 (unchanged) [42][47]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In August 2025, the national refined nickel production reached 37,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [52]. - **Demand**: No new significant demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of stainless - steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand [54][56]. - **Import and export**: No new import - export data or trends were provided other than historical import - export volume and import profit - loss trends [58]. - **Inventory**: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 2.1% to 269,000 tons this week [62]. - **Cost**: No new cost - related information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [64]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No new supply - related information was provided other than the historical production and net - import volume data [68]. - **Demand**: No new demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of ternary power - battery loading volume and ternary precursor production [71]. - **Cost and price**: No new cost - price information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [73]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global nickel supply and demand situation from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4 was presented. The total supply exceeded the total demand in most quarters, with a cumulative supply - demand surplus of 166,400 nickel tons in 2025 [79].