短期基本面压力明显， 镍价或继续承压 镍周报 2025/11/22 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格稳中微跌。菲律宾方面，国内镍铁冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，港口库存累积明显。虽然本周菲律宾矿价 未有下跌，但预计后市在终端需求走弱背景下，矿价或将承压运行。印尼方面，近期镍矿石产量增长明显，火法矿整体供需相对宽松，加之镍 铁价格持续下跌，印尼铁厂利润率接近为零，对高价矿接受程度较低，预计后市矿价或小幅下跌；湿法矿市场仍相对平淡，预计在MHP需求支 撑下价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周终端消费表现疲软，负反馈效应带动高镍生铁价格继续下滑。需求端，当前处于不锈钢需求传统淡季，终端消费表现疲软，下游企 业在库存高企，采购谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。供应端，市场 ...

据中国海关数据统计，2025年10月中国精炼镍进口量9939.65吨，环比减少65.21%，同比增长0.31%。 2025年1-10月，中国精炼镍累计进口量19.71万吨，同比增加174%。 分国别来看，变动主要来自俄罗斯及挪威。自俄罗斯进口精炼镍1043.77吨，环比下降94.6%；自挪威进 口精炼镍2150.086吨，环比下跌29.58%。 2025年10月中国精炼镍出口量13667.471吨，环比减少445吨，降幅3.15%；同比增加286吨，增幅 2.14%。10月精炼镍净出口3728吨。2025年1-10月，中国精炼镍累计出口量147104.519吨，同比增加 52398吨，增幅55.33%。 分国别来看，国内精炼镍出口主要流向仍为韩国及新加坡等几处LME交割仓库所在地，10月出口至中 国台湾1174.559吨，占比9%；出口至新加坡9096.374吨，占比66%；出口至韩国2177.21吨，占比16%。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

11月19日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼镍产量为 32.55万吨，消费量为30.84万吨，供应过剩1.71万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球精炼镍产量为287.69万吨，消费量为260.24万吨，供应过剩27.45万吨。 2025年9月，全球镍矿产量为37.83万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球镍矿产量为314.62万吨。 ...

世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球原铝产量为601.63万吨，消费量为 620.84万吨，供应短缺19.21万吨。2025年1-9月，全球原铝产量为5454.99万吨，消费量为5583.53万吨， 供应短缺128.54万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球锌板产量为119.35万吨，消费量为 122.92万吨，供应短缺3.57万吨。2025年1-9月，全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨，消费量为1073.69万吨， 供应短缺37.37万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼铅产量为113.79万吨，消费量 为0.48万吨，供应过剩113.31万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼铅产量为1006.41万吨，消费量为912.27万 吨，供应过剩94.14万吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼锡产量为3.25万吨，消费量为 2.76万吨，供应过剩0.49万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼锡产量为26.02万吨，消费量为26.95万吨，供应 短缺0.92 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 美元指数上行，压制镍不锈钢价格走势 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-17日沪镍主力合约2512开于117020元/吨，收于116750元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.28%，当日成交量 为102806（-15915）手，持仓量为107341（-4908）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现明显弱势下行走势，价格延续11月14日破位后跌势。近日，美联储政策不确定 性增加，美元指数走强，对大宗商品形成普遍压制。叠加供需关系趋于宽松，库存持续走高，沪镍短期下行趋势 较为明确。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场新招标即将落地，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面，北部Eramen1.4% 镍矿招标、Benguet1.25%锦矿招标。下游镍铁价格报价走跌，铁厂当前对原料镍矿采购多观望，仍持压价心理。 印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在 +25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120500元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌1200元/吨。由于价格持续走低，下游企 业采购积极性有所回 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 镍价短期承压，中长线转变仍需等待 （2025.11.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 行情回顾 沪镍价走势 数据来源：博易大师 | | | | 全球镍元素供给及预期(万镍吨) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | | 原生镍总供应 | | 256 | 269 | 306 | 331 | 338 | 369 | | 全球纯银产量 | | 85 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 90 | 99 | | 全球镍铁产量 | | 140 | 169 | 190 | 206 | 205 | 221 | | | NPI ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures, with the continuous weakness of ferronickel prices being the direct cause and the decline in nickel sulfate demand exacerbating the surplus expectation of refined nickel [2][5][12]. - The short - term support level for nickel prices may be around 115,000 yuan/ton, but it is not recommended to buy at this level [12]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Recent Nickel Price Decline - Recently, nickel prices broke through the previous shock platform, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 117,080 yuan/ton on November 14, a decline of 2.16%, and the LME nickel at $14,860/ton, a weekly decline of 1.07% [5]. - The decline is due to the continuous growth of refined nickel inventory since October, the accelerated decline of ferronickel prices since November, the expected increase in refined nickel supply, and the weakening demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Weak Ferronickel Price and High - Ice Nickel Conversion Expectation - Stainless steel demand is weak, driving down ferronickel prices. As of November 14, the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price has dropped to around 900 yuan/nickel point [7]. - The price deviation between refined nickel and ferronickel has led to a higher premium of refined nickel, increasing the expectation of ferronickel conversion to high - ice nickel. High - ice nickel production reached 36,000 tons in October and is expected to increase in November [7]. Weakening Nickel Sulfate Demand - Affected by the over - expected growth of new energy vehicles, ternary battery production was strong in the third quarter, but nickel sulfate demand may have reached its annual high seasonally [9]. - The cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 may lead to a decline in new energy vehicle sales, and a significant drop in the premium of nickel sulfate over refined nickel may push intermediates into the refined nickel market, exacerbating the surplus expectation [9]. Short - Term Support for Nickel Prices - The continuous weakness of ferronickel prices and the decline in nickel sulfate demand are the main reasons for the decline of refined nickel prices [12]. - The current ferronickel profit level is at an absolute low, and the ferronickel price may be close to a phased low. The corresponding nickel price support level is around 115,000 yuan/ton [12].

镍矿供应相对充足 根据印尼镍矿协会的最新数据，2025年RKAB（采矿工作计划与预算报告）已经批准3.64亿湿吨配额， 相比年初（2.98亿湿吨）增加超22%。若按照85%开采效率测算，2025年印尼实际镍矿供应会在3亿湿吨 左右，而镍矿需求在2.6亿湿吨左右，镍矿供需整体由年初的偏紧转向宽松格局。受此影响，镍矿价格 有所回落。印尼内贸红土镍矿最新到厂价为52.2美元／湿吨，相比年内的高点下跌7%左右。海关总署 的数据，9月国内进口镍矿611万吨，环比小幅下降3.6%，同比增加33%；1—9月国内累计进口3224万 吨，同比增加11.6%。其中，从菲律宾进口2918万吨，同比增加10.87%，占比超90%。 综上所述，供需宽松格局驱动镍价走弱，但是考虑到镍矿端的支撑，预计继续向下的空间有限。首先， 菲律宾苏高里地区将进入雨季，镍矿的开采能力将受限，镍矿的发运量将季节性回落。其次，目前印尼 镍矿内贸价格坚挺，镍价越向下成本支撑越强。截至11月7日，印尼内贸红土镍矿到厂价为52.7美元／ 湿吨，与7月初基本持平。最后，印尼政府于2025年10月3日发布《关于2026年矿产与煤炭采矿活动的工 作计划与预算编制提交批 ...