Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [3] 2. Core View - The nickel price is expected to rebound under macro - support, but the oversupply fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price may still face pressure after the sentiment fades [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Nickel Price Movement**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract rising 0.67% to 122,440. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply and Price of Nickel Ore**: The impact of precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter is limited, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply and downward price pressure [8] - **NPI Price**: Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 921.5 yuan/nickel point on the 12th [8] - **Nickel Salt Price**: Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the nickel salt price continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 12th increased by 60 to 27,510 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesian Investment in Nickel Downstream**: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through syndicated loans [9][10] - **Battery Energy Storage Projects** - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 gigawatts [10] - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10]

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The long - term surplus pressure of primary nickel remains significant. Short - term price rebounds of industrial chain products are due to long - term low prices, and should be treated as short - term rebounds. After the macro - optimistic sentiment fades, prices are likely to continue to face pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 11th, Shanghai nickel strengthened again, with the main contract rising 0.8% to 122,130. The spot market had sufficient available supply, but the receiving sentiment was average. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - The precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply, and prices are under downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end [7] - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 919 yuan/nickel point on the 11th. Large stainless steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt prices rebounded due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and low inventories of nickel salt plants. On the 11th, it continued to rise by 10 to 27,450 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [9] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high performance [9] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]

日期 2025 年 8 月 6 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 镍日报 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 5 日沪镍震荡偏强，主力 2509 收涨 0.83%报 120910，指数总持仓减少 5588 至 191375 手。金川一号镍平均升水环比上日跌 100 报 2250 元/吨，国内主流品牌 电积镍现货升贴水报价区间为-100-300 元/吨。菲律宾以及印尼镍矿供应后续宽 松预期较强，价格有进一步下跌压力，矿端支撑转弱；NPI 价格持续回升，5 日平 均报 916 元/镍点，但镍矿短期尚处高位，印尼铁厂大多仍处于成本倒挂状态，因 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, with a notable decline following the U.S.-China tariff war [1][2] - The overall trajectory of nickel prices has shifted downward, indicating potential challenges for the second half of the year, driven by structural oversupply and slowing demand from the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains a key driver of nickel price volatility, with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts potentially improving market sentiment and liquidity [2][3] - However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose significant risks to the demand outlook for nickel [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The nickel industry faces severe oversupply, primarily due to the rapid expansion of low-cost production capacity in Indonesia, which has led to a significant imbalance between supply and demand [4][5] - The demand side is also weakening, with stainless steel production slowing and the growth rate of nickel sulfate for electric vehicle batteries declining, leading to a dual weakness in demand [5][6] Group 4: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure as the cost support shifts from marginal costs to integrated production costs, indicating a potential further decline in price levels [7][8] - The market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with nickel prices fluctuating between 105,000 and 130,000 yuan per ton, constrained by oversupply and cost dynamics [8][9] Group 5: Strategic Considerations - Industry participants are advised to focus on survival strategies rather than expecting a market recovery, emphasizing cost control and cash flow management amid ongoing oversupply [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted from capacity expansion to a focus on cost management, highlighting the need for companies to adapt to the current market conditions [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - **L利多因素**: Inventory is continuously decreasing, with both Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories reducing, alleviating short - term supply pressure; Nickel ore in Indonesia is in short supply, and prices are firm, providing cost support for nickel prices [3]. - **利空因素**: The long - term supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the bearish fundamental pattern persists; The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, and the improvement in terminal orders is insufficient, dragging down nickel prices [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: The market is intertwined with long and short factors, lacking new drivers, and overall maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **镍期货价格**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 1,470 yuan (-1.21%); the price of LME Nickel 3M is 15,105 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars (-2.28%) [4]. - **不锈钢期货 price**: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (1%) [4]. - **镍现货 price**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 122,650 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (-0.22%); the price of imported nickel is 120,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (-0.29%) [4]. - **库存情况**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons; LME Nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 thousand tons, an increase of 15.5 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [4][6]. 3.2 Charts - **盘面信息**: There are charts showing the trends of domestic and foreign nickel futures, stainless steel futures, nickel spot average prices, etc., as well as seasonal charts of supply, production, and inventory in various aspects of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, including China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel total supply, domestic and LME nickel inventories, nickel ore prices and inventories, nickel iron production, downstream battery - grade nickel sulfate prices and production, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33].

紫金天风期货新能源组 【20250318】 【镍云评论】交易过剩现实 观点小结 以下文章来源于新能源萱言 ，作者新能源组 新能源萱言 . 2025年3月18日，沪镍主力2505合约开于133860元/吨，收于129490元/吨，日内高点133860元/ 吨，低点128830元/吨，日跌2.87%。至此，镍价重回13万元/吨以下，基本收回前两周的涨幅。 自2月底以来，沪镍盘面走势一路向上，市场情绪有所好转，期间纯镍供需格局并未发生明显变 化。镍价上涨主因短期镍矿供应紧张和主产国印尼政策扰动，导致市场对镍成本抬升的预期增 加。但综合来看，菲律宾方面，镍矿发运量减少系季节性因素，且当前随着南部苏里高矿区雨 季即将结束，部分矿山陆续报盘装期；印尼方面，由于传统斋月的影响，镍矿供应偏紧的趋势 或延续至四月，但短期扰动未改长期供应格局，从全年来看，印尼MHP项目的投产将导致电积 镍产能的持续释放。 后续来看，纯镍过剩局面已成定局，且库存短期内不断累增，这也预示着精炼镍需求不足的现 实。此外，镍作为供应集中的品种，市场对资源端扰动的敏感性也会相应提升。当前镍价单日 面临深度回调，市场情绪尚未完全统一，建议投资者谨慎观望。 ...