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每日机构分析:9月26日
Group 1: European Debt Market - Societe Generale indicates a significant downtrend in both realized and implied volatility in the European government bond market, creating favorable conditions for arbitrage trading [1] - The firm highlights French government bonds (OATs) as particularly attractive, alongside Spanish and Italian bonds, due to recent credit rating upgrades and anticipated improvements in ratings [1] Group 2: Indonesia Economic Outlook - Fitch's BMI notes that Indonesia's GDP growth may gradually slow over the next decade due to domestic political concerns and structural issues, despite the president's ambitious growth targets [2] - The report suggests that these measures may not be sufficient to elevate growth rates above the long-term average of 5.0% [2] Group 3: Japan's Trade and Investment - Capital Economics believes that if Japanese companies continue to serve U.S. clients through subsidiaries, the impact of U.S. trade policies on profits and investments will be limited [2] - Despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, Japan's direct foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to reach a record high this year, driven by strong U.S. economic performance [2] Group 4: Thai Baht and Monetary Policy - Citigroup anticipates that the Bank of Thailand may lower interest rates in October to curb the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, which has risen nearly 6% this year [2] Group 5: UK Economic Concerns - Barclays analysts point out that the combination of a strong dollar and weakened domestic growth is suppressing the British pound, with policy uncertainty ahead of the November budget exacerbating the situation [3][4] - The unexpected rise in public borrowing and weak bond auctions are further damaging market sentiment towards the pound [4] Group 6: Eurozone Debt Supply - Barclays expects a slowdown in Eurozone government debt supply in October, forecasting total issuance of €116 billion, down from approximately €127 billion in September [4][5] - The report also notes that redemptions are expected to rise to €118 billion, indicating a shift in the debt market dynamics [5] Group 7: Singapore Manufacturing Sector - DBS Bank reports that Singapore's manufacturing sector is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with August output declining by 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest drop since March 2024 [5] - The semiconductor cycle remains supported by structural developments in artificial intelligence, despite global economic uncertainties [5]