Group 1: European Debt Market - Societe Generale indicates a significant downtrend in both realized and implied volatility in the European government bond market, creating favorable conditions for arbitrage trading [1] - The firm highlights French government bonds (OATs) as particularly attractive, alongside Spanish and Italian bonds, due to recent credit rating upgrades and anticipated improvements in ratings [1] Group 2: Indonesia Economic Outlook - Fitch's BMI notes that Indonesia's GDP growth may gradually slow over the next decade due to domestic political concerns and structural issues, despite the president's ambitious growth targets [2] - The report suggests that these measures may not be sufficient to elevate growth rates above the long-term average of 5.0% [2] Group 3: Japan's Trade and Investment - Capital Economics believes that if Japanese companies continue to serve U.S. clients through subsidiaries, the impact of U.S. trade policies on profits and investments will be limited [2] - Despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, Japan's direct foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to reach a record high this year, driven by strong U.S. economic performance [2] Group 4: Thai Baht and Monetary Policy - Citigroup anticipates that the Bank of Thailand may lower interest rates in October to curb the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, which has risen nearly 6% this year [2] Group 5: UK Economic Concerns - Barclays analysts point out that the combination of a strong dollar and weakened domestic growth is suppressing the British pound, with policy uncertainty ahead of the November budget exacerbating the situation [3][4] - The unexpected rise in public borrowing and weak bond auctions are further damaging market sentiment towards the pound [4] Group 6: Eurozone Debt Supply - Barclays expects a slowdown in Eurozone government debt supply in October, forecasting total issuance of €116 billion, down from approximately €127 billion in September [4][5] - The report also notes that redemptions are expected to rise to €118 billion, indicating a shift in the debt market dynamics [5] Group 7: Singapore Manufacturing Sector - DBS Bank reports that Singapore's manufacturing sector is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with August output declining by 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest drop since March 2024 [5] - The semiconductor cycle remains supported by structural developments in artificial intelligence, despite global economic uncertainties [5]

期交易员预计，到年底美联储将累计降息三次，首次降息大概率在美东时间周三的会议上落地。此前市场仅预计年底前降息一 次，而5月美国非农就业新增人数较预期减少20%，甚至让市场短暂押注本周降息幅度可能扩大至50个基点，后因通胀数据企 稳才回落至25个基点。 周一美国国债相对其他全球主权债的收益率优势，已从1月的200多个基点收窄至120个基点。 2025年，市场对美联储重启降息周期的预期持续升温，此前因美国赤字占GDP比例持续高于6%，不少分析师担忧债务偿付压 力，甚至建议减持美债，而如今预期转向直接推动美国国债在全球主要主权债券市场中脱颖而出，跃居收益榜首。 据彭博指数统计，以本币计价的2025年美国国债回报率达到5.8%，在全球15大债券市场中位列第一。不过尽管美国国债相对 全球同类债券的额外收益率仍保持显著优势，但已降至三年低点。 2025年美元指数较年初回调约3%，以美元计价的投资者在配置海外主权债时，除债券本身收益外，还能获得汇率转换带来的 额外收益，这使得海外资产的表面回报高于美国国债。但如果剔除汇率干扰，仅聚焦债券本身表现便会发现，在多重利空冲击 下，其他主要市场主权债均显逊色。 因美元下跌，意大利国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the Federal Reserve restarting its interest rate cut cycle has reversed the market's bearish sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries, leading to their top performance among major sovereign bonds globally [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Performance - In 2025, U.S. Treasuries are projected to yield a return of 5.8%, the best performance among the 15 largest bond markets globally [1] - The yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds has narrowed from over 200 basis points in January to 120 basis points [2][5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 50 basis points this year, currently hovering near a five-month low [2] Group 2: Global Context - Other major markets, including Japan, the UK, and France, are facing multiple fiscal and political challenges, negatively impacting their bond market sentiment [1][6] - In contrast, U.S. Treasuries are benefiting from weak employment data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which are currently dominating market trends [6] Group 3: Currency Impact - When accounting for currency fluctuations, U.S. Treasuries' performance appears less favorable, with Italian bonds showing a return of 16% and Spanish bonds at 15% for 2025 [7] - The depreciation of the dollar has provided additional returns for investors in non-dollar-denominated assets [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Some investment firms, such as BlackRock, are favoring European and UK bonds over U.S. Treasuries from a relative value perspective [10] - The anticipated new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve may further support U.S. Treasuries, potentially offsetting the negative impact of a weaker dollar [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has shifted the outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds, making them the top-performing sovereign debt market globally [1][4] - According to Bloomberg's statistics, the return on U.S. government securities is projected to be 5.8% by 2025, outperforming 15 other major bond markets [1][4] - The excess return of U.S. Treasury assets compared to global peers has decreased to its lowest point in three years, despite still being significantly higher than developed markets [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are based on a weakening economy rather than a strong one, which could support U.S. Treasury performance [2][4] - Market focus is shifting towards the specifics of the Federal Reserve's easing policy, with expectations of three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [4][5] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has decreased by approximately 50 basis points this year, indicating rising bond prices [5] Group 3 - The ongoing weak U.S. dollar has led international investors to seek returns in non-dollar assets, impacting the relative performance of U.S. Treasuries [8][11] - Despite strong performance in local currency terms, U.S. Treasuries have lagged behind other sovereign bonds when measured in U.S. dollars due to currency fluctuations [11] - Major investment firms are currently favoring European and UK bonds over U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [11]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a slight decline, with an overall increase in market risk appetite, leading to a drop in government bond futures and a rise in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.18% to 116.680, the 10-year main contract down 0.03% to 107.955, the 5-year main contract down 0.02% to 105.57, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.412 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds generally increased, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.871%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.77% [2]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 2,557 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan for the day [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.314%, and the 7-day rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.431%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions suggest that while the bond market may not be overly pessimistic, the overall liquidity in the secondary market remains weak, with structural highlights in certain floating-rate bonds [5]. - The outlook for September indicates that the central bank will maintain a reasonable liquidity level, especially considering the seasonal pressures from the end of the quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term US Treasury bonds experienced a slight increase, influenced by better-than-expected demand in the 30-year Japanese government bond auction and rising German bonds ahead of the European Central Bank decision [1] Group 1: US Treasury Market - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds remained relatively flat, with the 7-year segment showing minor fluctuations [1] - Long-term yields decreased by 2-3 basis points compared to the previous trading day, while short-term yields saw a slight increase [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose by less than 2 basis points to 4.34%, underperforming compared to UK and German bonds of the same maturity by 1-2 basis points [1] Group 2: European Bond Market - Strong demand was noted in the bond auctions for French and Spanish government bonds, which positively impacted European bonds during early trading in London [1] - The German bond market showed an upward trend in anticipation of the European Central Bank's decision, contributing to the overall performance of European bonds [1]

周五（5月30日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌0.8个基点，报2.5%，5月份累计上涨5.6个基 点，5月14日曾涨至2.701%。 两年期德债收益率涨0.7个基点，报1.776%，5月份累涨9.0个基点，5月14日曾达到1.952%；30年期德债 收益率累涨9.8个基点，报2.980%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌1.396个基点，报+72.218个基点，5月份累跌3.259个基点。 法国10年期国债收益率累跌0.7个基点，报3.160%，整体呈现出A形冲高回落，5月14日达到3.381%。 希腊10年期国债收益率累跌4.4个基点，报3.253%。 意大利10年期国债收益率累跌8.5个基点，报3.480%，5月14日曾达到3.714%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率累跌2.1个基点，报3.092%。 ...