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亚翔集成(603929):景气加速上行,空间依然充足
Guoxin Securities· 2026-03-30 09:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The cleanroom has become a core bottleneck in global AI infrastructure, with significant demand driven by the explosion of AI computing needs [1][18] - The company, as a leading cleanroom engineering service provider, is expected to see rapid order and revenue growth, significantly enhancing profit margins [3][40] - The sustainability of AI capital expenditures is a key variable determining the valuation of companies in the industry, with expectations of continued growth through 2028 [2][69] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profit for 2026-2028 is 19.45 billion, 31.35 billion, and 41.38 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of +118%, +61%, and +32% [3][72] - Revenue projections for the same period are 9.07 billion, 14.79 billion, and 20.06 billion yuan, with growth rates of +84.8%, +63.1%, and +35.6% [4][72] - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 222.90 and 251.97 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20%-35% from the current stock price [3][75] Market Dynamics - The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing a significant increase in demand due to the rapid expansion of the semiconductor industry, driven by AI applications [1][18] - The company benefits from a strong binding relationship with clients and suppliers, which reduces the likelihood of client turnover and enhances revenue stability [40][42] - The company is positioned to leverage its parent company's resources to expand into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [48][61] Valuation Insights - The company is expected to maintain a high valuation due to the ongoing "super cycle" of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a conservative estimate placing the peak of this cycle at 2028 [2][69] - The projected price per share based on a 20x PE ratio for 2027 is approximately 300 yuan, reflecting the anticipated growth in orders and revenue [2][73]