Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rubber shows an oscillating performance. The supply and demand fundamentals of rubber remain relatively stable, with normalizing weather in production areas and an expected loosening supply. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons or 0.7% from the previous period. The downstream tire factory's operating rate will gradually recover after the holiday. In the short term, macro - logic is dominant, and rubber may continue to oscillate under the influence of external macro factors. The trading strategy is to temporarily wait and see on a single - side basis, hold a small bottom - position for the arbitrage of going long on Br/NR and short on RU, and also pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - Domestic futures: RU主力 rose from 14895 to 14900 (+5), NR主力 rose from 12235 to 12315 (+80), and BR主力 rose from 10895 to 11135 (+240). - Foreign futures: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 311.8 to 311.5 (-0.3), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 169.0 [3] Futures Spread - Inter - period spread: For example, RU2605 - RU2601 changed from 0 to - 10, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 40 to - 50, and BR主力 - 次主力 increased from 60 to 85. - Inter - variety spread: RU - NR decreased from 2660 to 2585 (-75), RU - BR decreased from 4000 to 3765 (-235), and NR - BR decreased from 1340 to 1180 (-160). - Inter - market spread: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 27 to 29 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased from 27 to 38 (+11) [3] Raw Material Prices - Thailand: The price of smoked sheet rubber increased from 57.19 to 57.39 (+0.20), the price of glue remained unchanged at 54.10, and the price of cup rubber increased from 49.65 to 50.00 (+0.35). - Hainan and Yunnan: The price of Hainan glue (concentrated latex) increased from 13400 to 13600 (+200), and other prices remained relatively stable [3] Factory Costs and Profits - Full - latex delivery profit: In Hainan, it decreased from - 2006 to - 2199 (-193), and in Yunnan, it increased from - 486 to - 479 (+1). - Concentrated latex production profit: In Thailand, it decreased from 660 to 632 (-29), and in Hainan, it decreased from - 114 to - 144 (-30). - Smoked sheet and 20 - grade rubber gross profit: Thailand's 20 - grade rubber decreased from 167 to 51 (-116), and domestic 9710 remained unchanged at 450 [3] Domestic Spot - Light - colored rubber: The prices of old full - latex and Vietnamese 3L remained unchanged, while the prices of Thai clay and Malaysian mixture increased by 80. - Dark - colored rubber: The price of Thai standard decreased by 5, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged. - Latex: The price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk increased by 100. - Synthetic rubber: The price of butadiene rubber BR9000 increased by 100, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1502 increased by 50 [3] Overseas Spot - The prices of Thai - mixed CIF, Malaysian - mixed CIF, Thai - standard CIF, Malaysian - standard CIF, and Indian - standard CIF all increased by 10 [3] Futures - Spot Spread - RU spread: RU - Thai - mixed decreased from 295 to 220 (-75), RU - old full - latex increased from 595 to 600 (+5), and RU - Vietnamese 3L increased from - 55 to - 50 (+5). - NR spread: NR - Thai - standard delivery profit increased from - 722 to - 689 (+33), NR - Indian - standard delivery profit increased from - 116 to - 48 (+68), and NR - Malaysian - standard delivery profit increased from - 651 to - 618 (+33) [3] Spot Spread - Variety spread: For example, the price difference between Thai - standard and Thai - mixed ($) remained unchanged at 10, the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai - mixed decreased from 350 to 270 (-80), and the price difference between domestic standard II and Thai - mixed decreased from - 850 to - 930 (-80) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange rates: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6659, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased from 7.0995 to 7.0968 (-0.003), and other exchange rates remained relatively stable. - Interest rates: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.316, and SHIBOR - F - large increased from 1.414 to 1.419 (+0.005) [3]