期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】 周四，市场围绕霍尔木兹海峡的关闭与重启激烈博弈 ，化工连续上涨后出现剧烈调整，橡胶期价吞没前期部分涨幅。市 场对于美伊冲突影响的解读出现分化，橡胶的主要风险在于下游轮 胎出口可能受阻。中国轮胎对中东出口占总出口量约 22%，是仅 次于欧盟的第二大出口区域。短期：出口量价承压，部分订单延迟 或取消。中期：若冲突持续，占比或阶段性回落，企业转向非洲、 拉美等市场分散风险。因此此次冲突除原油大涨导致合成橡胶成本 大涨之外，下游需求端的潜在风险也不容忽视，国内天胶建议暂时 观望为主，避免高位追涨。 【重要资讯】国内现货季节性累库，截 至2026年3月1日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量67.99 万吨，环比上期增加1.22万吨，增幅1.82%。保税区库存11.81万吨 ，增幅6.52%；一般贸易库存56.18万吨，增幅0.89%。青岛天然橡 胶样本保税仓库入库率减少6.75个百分点，出库率减少2.39个百分 点；一般贸易仓库入库率减少8.75个百分点，出库率减少0.02个百 分点。 【市场逻辑】春节后商品市场情绪回暖。供需基本面，当前 橡胶产地现货逐步进入停 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market shows a pattern of decreasing supply in China and increasing supply overseas, with price fluctuations and inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market, especially the butadiene rubber segment, has sufficient supply and a decreasing inventory trend. The downstream consumption of the rubber sector shows a phenomenon where the farther from rubber, the stronger the data growth, while the closer data has not yet stabilized [3][35]. - The report provides trading strategies for rubber futures, including holding short - positions in RU01, NR01, and BR02 contracts, holding the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The average price of natural rubber in the RMB market has a narrow adjustment. The average price of Shanghai full - latex is 14,845 yuan/ton, and the average price of STR20 mixed rubber in the Shandong market is 14,543 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in North China is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,030 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: For natural rubber, domestic supply decreases while overseas supply increases. The Yunnan production area has stopped tapping, and Hainan's output is affected by rainfall. Overseas, the weather in northeastern Thailand is normal, while the southern part and the Vietnamese production area are affected by rainfall. The average operating load of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber plants is 71.05%, with the Zhenhua New Materials plant increasing its load and the Maoming Petrochemical plant under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The price of natural rubber fluctuates within a range and moves downward. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm of factories is average due to the bearish expectation. The operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.99%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. The general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14%. The butadiene rubber inventory continues to decline, with a decrease of 8.02% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Trading**: Hold short - positions in the RU01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,270 points; hold short - positions in the NR01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 12,105 points; hold short - positions in the BR02 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,600 points [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601 (1 lot to 1 lot) at + 3085 points, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of + 3065 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Thailand Rubber Situation - **Price and Relationship with RU**: Since December, the price of Thai latex has dropped to 55.5 baht/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%, with the decline narrowing and two consecutive months of marginal strengthening, which is bullish for the RU unilateral position. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2023. In November, the price of Thai cup lump dropped to 48.2 baht/kg, and the latex - cup lump spread is + 7.28 baht/kg, a year - on - year weakening of 2.69 baht/kg, still in a 13 - month marginal weakening trend. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2022 [7][12]. - **Rainfall**: Since November, Thailand has experienced severe floods due to heavy rainfall. Last week, the weighted rainfall for natural rubber production reached 39.01 mm/day, a record high since March 2011. However, this week, the rainfall has rapidly dropped to 1.05 mm/day, and the impact of abnormal weather is rapidly fading, with the market starting to trade on the expectation of increased production after heavy rain [17]. 3.4 Climate Data - In November, the Southern Oscillation Index rose to 12.5 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points; from September to November, the El Niño index cooled to - 0.6°C for six consecutive months, a year - on - year cooling of 0.3°C. The climate data has fallen back, which is bearish [21]. 3.5 African Rubber as a Substitute for NR - African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will announce the premium or discount (most likely a discount). If the discount is large, it will not attract sellers for delivery, having a small impact on the existing contract. If the discount is small or at par, it will attract a large amount of delivery due to delivery profit, thus having a greater impact on the current pricing of the NR contract [26]. 3.6 Rubber Downstream Consumption - **Stock Index**: As of December 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has fallen to 729 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [35]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and has been increasing year - on - year for five consecutive months [35]. - **Rubber and Plastics Industry Electricity Consumption**: In September 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for four consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, the highest since January 2024 [35]. - **Tire Production**: In October 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [35]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply and Profit - **Butadiene Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the profit of the C4 extraction process is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is - 1709 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of raw material naphtha has risen, increasing the cost pressure on butadiene, and the price of Sinopec's butadiene has remained stable, reducing the extraction process profit. The oxidative dehydrogenation and coal - to - oil processes have increased their process profits due to the firm supply price [44]. - **Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the theoretical production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, the ex - factory price and market price have slightly increased, and the theoretical production profit generally remains at a high level [44]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons or 0.34% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises next week will be 32,000 tons, a slight decrease from this period. After the hype atmosphere of raw materials and natural rubber cools down, the premium space in the butadiene market is expected to narrow, and the inventory level is expected to gradually shift from the factory end to the middle and lower reaches [52]. 3.9 Synthetic Rubber Apparent Consumption - In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene decreased for two consecutive months to 490,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with the growth rate narrowing. Since September 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth. In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene rubber increased for two consecutive months to 142,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and three consecutive months of marginal growth. Since October 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth [69]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing; the total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [78]. 3.11 Natural Rubber Inventory - This week, the futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber has increased. As of Thursday this week, the total futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber is 45,700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from the previous period. The total futures warehouse receipt inventory of 20 - rubber is 56,500 tons, an increase of 5200 tons from the previous period. As of the week of November 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area is 74,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.54%, and the general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14% [83][84]. 3.12 Mixed Rubber Basis - In October, domestic mixed rubber imports were 261,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%, and a marginal decrease for three consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, global automobile sales increased to 8.64 million vehicles for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and a marginal increase for nine consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; the US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% for two consecutive months, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The growth rate of the Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined marginally for two consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, domestic commercial vehicle production decreased to 364,000 vehicles, and passenger vehicle production increased to 2.995 million vehicles for three consecutive months. In October, South Korean commercial vehicle production decreased to 18,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, and passenger vehicle production decreased to 285,000 vehicles. The Sino - Korean automobile production has increased marginally for two consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber basis [93]. 3.13 Tire Consumption - As of December 4, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days from the previous period and an increase of 5.38 days year - on - year; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days from the previous period and a decrease of 1.79 days year - on - year [94]. - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading is weak during the month - end period. The all - season tire market is weakly stable, and at the end of the month, distributors have replenishment needs according to the task volume, with general channel sales. The snow tire market has sufficient supply, and the demand needs further improvement. In the all - steel tire market, the market trading is dull, affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand has further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus is on digesting existing inventory, and the purchase enthusiasm is average. The market transaction price is stable with a downward trend, and some merchants have promotional activities according to their own inventory [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber's center of gravity has slightly declined, with the weekly decline of Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber and Shanghai full - latex rubber being about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed, with the operating load of Shandong all - steel tires rising by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires also increasing significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices [4]. - The NR - RU spread has been strengthening since the delivery of the 09 contract. Fundamentally, the low Thai water - cup spread supports the strength of NR, while sufficient domestic production capacity supports the weakness of RU. However, most other data do not support the continuous strengthening of NR [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis - **Valuation**: The center of gravity of natural rubber has slightly declined. Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber is at 14,586 yuan/ton, and Shanghai full - latex rubber is at 14,387 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: In Hainan and Xishuangbanna, rainfall has affected production, with the daily glue output being only over a thousand tons, and the domestic raw material purchase price has been reduced by 650 - 750 yuan/ton in total. In northeastern Thailand, the weather has improved, and the cup - lump rubber has fallen to 50.4 Thai baht/kg. The synthetic rubber supply has increased, with the comprehensive operating rate rising to 74.8% and the social inventory increasing by 14.6% month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed. The operating load of Shandong all - steel tires has risen by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires has also increased significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices. Generally, when truck and bus tires are stronger than car tires, rubber prices tend to be weak, but now car tires also show signs of stabilization [4]. Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side**: Hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract, and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,000 points; wait and see for the NR main 12 contract, and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,360 points; try to go long on the BR main 12 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of 10,790 points [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Intervene in RU2601 - NR2601 at an appropriate time; hold the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 lots to 1 lot) position at - 4,010 points, and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of - 4,090 points [5]. - **Options**: Sell the RU2601 put 13,500 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the high of 103 points last Friday; pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 219 points for the BR2512 call 11,200 contract [5]. Focus - NR Valuation (NR - RU Spread) - **Negative factors for the spread**: The import volume of Indonesian standard rubber has increased significantly and has become the main body of NR delivery [8]. - **Positive factors for the spread**: The Thai water - cup spread has reached a new low, indicating that the raw materials for standard rubber are extremely strong; the increasing trend of domestic rubber production is relatively unfavorable for RU valuation [10][13]. Natural Rubber Supply - The year - on - year decline of Thai glue is greater than that of RU. As of October, Thai glue has closed at 54.1 Thai baht/kg, with a year - on - year decline of - 34.8%, and the decline is expanding, far greater than the year - on - year decline of - 7.0% of the RU contract [26]. - The water - cup spread in Yunnan also shows that the RU contract is still overvalued. The average daily weighted rainfall in Thailand in October has increased year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive months, which means an increase in supply [26]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate has increased, the butadiene port inventory has increased, and the butadiene rubber trader and factory inventory has increased [36]. Mixed Basis - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 456,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month. The bonded area inventory has increased, and the general trade inventory has decreased. After the festival, the macro - atmosphere in the rubber market is bearish, and downstream enterprises are mostly waiting and watching [39]. Downstream Consumption - **After - festival all - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 64.5%, and the finished product inventory has been accumulating for 7 consecutive weeks to 40 days, with active inventory accumulation [46]. - **Semi - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 72.7%, and the product inventory has been de - stocking for 9 consecutive weeks to 45 days, with passive de - stocking and a tightening balance [46]. - **European automobile industry**: As of October 2025, the European automobile industry index has declined month - on - month but strengthened year - on - year, which is positive for the RU single - side [53]. - **Domestic automobile inventory**: As of September 2025, the domestic automobile inventory index has been accumulating for 2 consecutive months to 57.9 points, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, which is negative for the RU single - side [53]. RU Month - spread - In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for 4 consecutive months, which determined the narrowing of the September - January space. As of October, the RU warehouse receipts have been de - stocking for 6 consecutive months to 140,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.8%, which is positive for the near - end [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rubber shows an oscillating performance. The supply and demand fundamentals of rubber remain relatively stable, with normalizing weather in production areas and an expected loosening supply. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons or 0.7% from the previous period. The downstream tire factory's operating rate will gradually recover after the holiday. In the short term, macro - logic is dominant, and rubber may continue to oscillate under the influence of external macro factors. The trading strategy is to temporarily wait and see on a single - side basis, hold a small bottom - position for the arbitrage of going long on Br/NR and short on RU, and also pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - Domestic futures: RU主力 rose from 14895 to 14900 (+5), NR主力 rose from 12235 to 12315 (+80), and BR主力 rose from 10895 to 11135 (+240). - Foreign futures: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 311.8 to 311.5 (-0.3), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 169.0 [3] Futures Spread - Inter - period spread: For example, RU2605 - RU2601 changed from 0 to - 10, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 40 to - 50, and BR主力 - 次主力 increased from 60 to 85. - Inter - variety spread: RU - NR decreased from 2660 to 2585 (-75), RU - BR decreased from 4000 to 3765 (-235), and NR - BR decreased from 1340 to 1180 (-160). - Inter - market spread: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 27 to 29 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased from 27 to 38 (+11) [3] Raw Material Prices - Thailand: The price of smoked sheet rubber increased from 57.19 to 57.39 (+0.20), the price of glue remained unchanged at 54.10, and the price of cup rubber increased from 49.65 to 50.00 (+0.35). - Hainan and Yunnan: The price of Hainan glue (concentrated latex) increased from 13400 to 13600 (+200), and other prices remained relatively stable [3] Factory Costs and Profits - Full - latex delivery profit: In Hainan, it decreased from - 2006 to - 2199 (-193), and in Yunnan, it increased from - 486 to - 479 (+1). - Concentrated latex production profit: In Thailand, it decreased from 660 to 632 (-29), and in Hainan, it decreased from - 114 to - 144 (-30). - Smoked sheet and 20 - grade rubber gross profit: Thailand's 20 - grade rubber decreased from 167 to 51 (-116), and domestic 9710 remained unchanged at 450 [3] Domestic Spot - Light - colored rubber: The prices of old full - latex and Vietnamese 3L remained unchanged, while the prices of Thai clay and Malaysian mixture increased by 80. - Dark - colored rubber: The price of Thai standard decreased by 5, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged. - Latex: The price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk increased by 100. - Synthetic rubber: The price of butadiene rubber BR9000 increased by 100, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1502 increased by 50 [3] Overseas Spot - The prices of Thai - mixed CIF, Malaysian - mixed CIF, Thai - standard CIF, Malaysian - standard CIF, and Indian - standard CIF all increased by 10 [3] Futures - Spot Spread - RU spread: RU - Thai - mixed decreased from 295 to 220 (-75), RU - old full - latex increased from 595 to 600 (+5), and RU - Vietnamese 3L increased from - 55 to - 50 (+5). - NR spread: NR - Thai - standard delivery profit increased from - 722 to - 689 (+33), NR - Indian - standard delivery profit increased from - 116 to - 48 (+68), and NR - Malaysian - standard delivery profit increased from - 651 to - 618 (+33) [3] Spot Spread - Variety spread: For example, the price difference between Thai - standard and Thai - mixed ($) remained unchanged at 10, the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai - mixed decreased from 350 to 270 (-80), and the price difference between domestic standard II and Thai - mixed decreased from - 850 to - 930 (-80) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange rates: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6659, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased from 7.0995 to 7.0968 (-0.003), and other exchange rates remained relatively stable. - Interest rates: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.316, and SHIBOR - F - large increased from 1.414 to 1.419 (+0.005) [3]