橡胶板块2025年12月第1周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：泰国降雨恢复正常，顺丁持续边际去库 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：天然橡胶人民币市场均价重心窄调，上海全乳胶均价14845元/吨，山东市场STR20#混合胶均价14543元/吨。顺丁橡胶华北地区 BR9000市场价10000元/吨，华北地区BR9000均价10030元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶供应国内降、海外增。云南产区停割，海南受降雨影响产出；海外泰国东北部天气正常，南部、越南产区受降雨扰动。 顺丁橡胶国内高顺丁装置平均开工负荷71.05%，振华新材料装置负荷提升，茂名石化停车检修。 需求方面：天然橡胶胶价区间震荡走低，下游逢低刚需补货，但看跌预期下工厂整体采买积极性一般。顺丁橡胶山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负 荷62.99%，较上周走低0.92个百分点。 库存方面：青岛地区天然橡胶总库存47.5万吨，较上期增加1.26万吨，涨幅2.72%；一般贸易库存40.05万吨，较上期增加1.22万吨，涨幅 3.14%。顺丁橡胶库存继续走低，降幅8.02%，总体库存水平下滑。 ◼【策略推荐】 1.单边：RU01合约空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber's center of gravity has slightly declined, with the weekly decline of Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber and Shanghai full - latex rubber being about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed, with the operating load of Shandong all - steel tires rising by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires also increasing significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices [4]. - The NR - RU spread has been strengthening since the delivery of the 09 contract. Fundamentally, the low Thai water - cup spread supports the strength of NR, while sufficient domestic production capacity supports the weakness of RU. However, most other data do not support the continuous strengthening of NR [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis - **Valuation**: The center of gravity of natural rubber has slightly declined. Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber is at 14,586 yuan/ton, and Shanghai full - latex rubber is at 14,387 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: In Hainan and Xishuangbanna, rainfall has affected production, with the daily glue output being only over a thousand tons, and the domestic raw material purchase price has been reduced by 650 - 750 yuan/ton in total. In northeastern Thailand, the weather has improved, and the cup - lump rubber has fallen to 50.4 Thai baht/kg. The synthetic rubber supply has increased, with the comprehensive operating rate rising to 74.8% and the social inventory increasing by 14.6% month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed. The operating load of Shandong all - steel tires has risen by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires has also increased significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices. Generally, when truck and bus tires are stronger than car tires, rubber prices tend to be weak, but now car tires also show signs of stabilization [4]. Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side**: Hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract, and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,000 points; wait and see for the NR main 12 contract, and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,360 points; try to go long on the BR main 12 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of 10,790 points [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Intervene in RU2601 - NR2601 at an appropriate time; hold the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 lots to 1 lot) position at - 4,010 points, and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of - 4,090 points [5]. - **Options**: Sell the RU2601 put 13,500 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the high of 103 points last Friday; pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 219 points for the BR2512 call 11,200 contract [5]. Focus - NR Valuation (NR - RU Spread) - **Negative factors for the spread**: The import volume of Indonesian standard rubber has increased significantly and has become the main body of NR delivery [8]. - **Positive factors for the spread**: The Thai water - cup spread has reached a new low, indicating that the raw materials for standard rubber are extremely strong; the increasing trend of domestic rubber production is relatively unfavorable for RU valuation [10][13]. Natural Rubber Supply - The year - on - year decline of Thai glue is greater than that of RU. As of October, Thai glue has closed at 54.1 Thai baht/kg, with a year - on - year decline of - 34.8%, and the decline is expanding, far greater than the year - on - year decline of - 7.0% of the RU contract [26]. - The water - cup spread in Yunnan also shows that the RU contract is still overvalued. The average daily weighted rainfall in Thailand in October has increased year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive months, which means an increase in supply [26]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate has increased, the butadiene port inventory has increased, and the butadiene rubber trader and factory inventory has increased [36]. Mixed Basis - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 456,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month. The bonded area inventory has increased, and the general trade inventory has decreased. After the festival, the macro - atmosphere in the rubber market is bearish, and downstream enterprises are mostly waiting and watching [39]. Downstream Consumption - **After - festival all - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 64.5%, and the finished product inventory has been accumulating for 7 consecutive weeks to 40 days, with active inventory accumulation [46]. - **Semi - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 72.7%, and the product inventory has been de - stocking for 9 consecutive weeks to 45 days, with passive de - stocking and a tightening balance [46]. - **European automobile industry**: As of October 2025, the European automobile industry index has declined month - on - month but strengthened year - on - year, which is positive for the RU single - side [53]. - **Domestic automobile inventory**: As of September 2025, the domestic automobile inventory index has been accumulating for 2 consecutive months to 57.9 points, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, which is negative for the RU single - side [53]. RU Month - spread - In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for 4 consecutive months, which determined the narrowing of the September - January space. As of October, the RU warehouse receipts have been de - stocking for 6 consecutive months to 140,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.8%, which is positive for the near - end [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rubber shows an oscillating performance. The supply and demand fundamentals of rubber remain relatively stable, with normalizing weather in production areas and an expected loosening supply. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons or 0.7% from the previous period. The downstream tire factory's operating rate will gradually recover after the holiday. In the short term, macro - logic is dominant, and rubber may continue to oscillate under the influence of external macro factors. The trading strategy is to temporarily wait and see on a single - side basis, hold a small bottom - position for the arbitrage of going long on Br/NR and short on RU, and also pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - Domestic futures: RU主力 rose from 14895 to 14900 (+5), NR主力 rose from 12235 to 12315 (+80), and BR主力 rose from 10895 to 11135 (+240). - Foreign futures: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 311.8 to 311.5 (-0.3), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 169.0 [3] Futures Spread - Inter - period spread: For example, RU2605 - RU2601 changed from 0 to - 10, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 40 to - 50, and BR主力 - 次主力 increased from 60 to 85. - Inter - variety spread: RU - NR decreased from 2660 to 2585 (-75), RU - BR decreased from 4000 to 3765 (-235), and NR - BR decreased from 1340 to 1180 (-160). - Inter - market spread: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 27 to 29 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased from 27 to 38 (+11) [3] Raw Material Prices - Thailand: The price of smoked sheet rubber increased from 57.19 to 57.39 (+0.20), the price of glue remained unchanged at 54.10, and the price of cup rubber increased from 49.65 to 50.00 (+0.35). - Hainan and Yunnan: The price of Hainan glue (concentrated latex) increased from 13400 to 13600 (+200), and other prices remained relatively stable [3] Factory Costs and Profits - Full - latex delivery profit: In Hainan, it decreased from - 2006 to - 2199 (-193), and in Yunnan, it increased from - 486 to - 479 (+1). - Concentrated latex production profit: In Thailand, it decreased from 660 to 632 (-29), and in Hainan, it decreased from - 114 to - 144 (-30). - Smoked sheet and 20 - grade rubber gross profit: Thailand's 20 - grade rubber decreased from 167 to 51 (-116), and domestic 9710 remained unchanged at 450 [3] Domestic Spot - Light - colored rubber: The prices of old full - latex and Vietnamese 3L remained unchanged, while the prices of Thai clay and Malaysian mixture increased by 80. - Dark - colored rubber: The price of Thai standard decreased by 5, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged. - Latex: The price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk increased by 100. - Synthetic rubber: The price of butadiene rubber BR9000 increased by 100, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1502 increased by 50 [3] Overseas Spot - The prices of Thai - mixed CIF, Malaysian - mixed CIF, Thai - standard CIF, Malaysian - standard CIF, and Indian - standard CIF all increased by 10 [3] Futures - Spot Spread - RU spread: RU - Thai - mixed decreased from 295 to 220 (-75), RU - old full - latex increased from 595 to 600 (+5), and RU - Vietnamese 3L increased from - 55 to - 50 (+5). - NR spread: NR - Thai - standard delivery profit increased from - 722 to - 689 (+33), NR - Indian - standard delivery profit increased from - 116 to - 48 (+68), and NR - Malaysian - standard delivery profit increased from - 651 to - 618 (+33) [3] Spot Spread - Variety spread: For example, the price difference between Thai - standard and Thai - mixed ($) remained unchanged at 10, the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai - mixed decreased from 350 to 270 (-80), and the price difference between domestic standard II and Thai - mixed decreased from - 850 to - 930 (-80) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange rates: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6659, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased from 7.0995 to 7.0968 (-0.003), and other exchange rates remained relatively stable. - Interest rates: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.316, and SHIBOR - F - large increased from 1.414 to 1.419 (+0.005) [3]