Tariff Policy Impact - On September 25, Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on various goods effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs[2] - The estimated total import value of the affected goods in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total[4] Tariff Rate Changes - The effective tariff rate on imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947[3] - Trump's tariffs on China have increased by 54% this year, with 24% currently suspended, while other trading partners with a surplus have seen a minimum 15% increase[3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data includes the September ADP employment numbers and ISM manufacturing PMI, scheduled for release on October 1[5] - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, indicating a downturn, while mortgage rates have decreased, leading to a significant rise in mortgage applications[6][25] Financial Conditions - U.S. financial conditions have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while Eurozone conditions have tightened[7] - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds has widened, indicating increased risk perception in the market[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement made by Trump regarding the imposition of new tariffs on various goods starting October 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 100% [2][4]. Group 1: New Industry Tariffs and Import Scale - Trump announced tariffs on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related goods at 50%, upholstered furniture at 30%, patented and branded drugs at 100% (with exemptions for certain pharmaceutical companies), and heavy trucks at 25% [5][15]. - The estimated total import value for these four categories in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total [5][16]. - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947 [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming important economic data includes the ADP employment numbers, S&P manufacturing PMI final value, and ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1, followed by the non-farm payroll report on October 3 [6][17]. - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, while mortgage loan rates have decreased, leading to a significant increase in mortgage applications [7][25]. - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market [29]. Group 3: Financial Conditions and Market Trends - Financial conditions in the U.S. have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while those in the Eurozone have tightened [35]. - The offshore dollar liquidity has shown signs of tightening, particularly in the euro to dollar exchange [37]. - The credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, reflecting changing market conditions [40].