2025 年 08 月 20 日 对等关税 2.0 后，行业关税或将成关键新变量 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 已达成贸易协定：阶段性框架协定为主，实质内容不多 1. 特朗普政府在贸易谈判上取得了一定成果。截至 8 月 18 日，特朗普政府与英 国、欧盟、日本、韩国等国家和地区达成了贸易协定，这些国家和地区占 2024 年美国商品总进口的比例为 38.6%，占美国 2024 年商品逆差的 49.8%（不含英 国）。但除了英国与美国达成的贸易协定相对具体外，其他国家的贸易协定更像 是一个临时性质的框架协定，缺乏具体的内容安排。且无论美国对贸易伙伴是顺 差/逆差，美国都是单方面征收关税，所有协定均存在明显的关税税率不对等。 2. 美英贸易协定：10%普征关税叠加行业出口配额。美英双方于 5 月 8 日达成 美英经济繁荣协议一般条款（EPD）：一是部分行业关税税率的相互降低，但设 定了不同程度的限额；二是非关税壁垒的放宽，主要涉及市场准入标准以及共同 监管问题；三是增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of US trade policy remains Trump himself, and his controversial tariff strategy is expected to be prevalent in the next two to three years, with any country aiming to gain future discourse power needing to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System 2.0 - During his first term, Trump initiated a trade revolution centered on "America First," using tariffs as a primary weapon, which ignited global trade disputes and altered the existing international trade landscape [4][5]. - In his second term, Trump's tariff tactics evolved into a more structured and comprehensive approach, consisting of four main components: reciprocal tariffs for trade balance, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, tariffs on transshipment to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [5][6]. Group 2: Reciprocal Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariffs" create a trade circle centered around the US, with countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face higher rates based on their trade relations and concessions made to the US [6][7]. - As of August 29, 2023, new regulations require small packages valued at $800 or less to pay certain taxes upon entry, with specific rates based on the country of origin [7]. Group 3: Punitive Tariffs - Trump increasingly uses punitive tariffs as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [9][10]. - The US has implemented significant tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and additional tariffs on Chinese products, with the potential for further increases based on cooperation in drug trafficking issues [9][10]. Group 4: Transshipment Tariffs - To close potential loopholes in tariff policies, the Trump administration established a "transshipment" clause allowing customs to impose a 40% tariff on goods attempting to circumvent tariffs through third countries [11]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and creates uncertainty for US customs [12][13]. Group 5: Industry Tariffs - The US has invoked the 1962 Trade Expansion Act's Section 232 to impose high tariffs on strategically important industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and enhance domestic supply chain resilience [16][17]. - Tariffs have been applied to steel, aluminum, and are expected to extend to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a notable exemption for companies investing in the US [16][17][18]. Group 6: Oral Agreements and Execution Discrepancies - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on oral agreements, leading to confusion and disputes over key terms [20][21]. - Discrepancies in the interpretation of agreements have hindered finalizing trade deals, as seen in negotiations with Japan and South Korea [20][21][22]. Group 7: Transition to Inventory Reduction Cycle - Following the implementation of high tariffs, the US has entered a phase of inventory reduction, with significant declines in inventory growth rates for durable and non-durable goods [28][29]. - The shift in import demand is attributed to the finalization of tariff policies and the completion of pre-tariff procurement, leading to a focus on inventory digestion and price adjustments [29][30]. Group 8: Global Trade Landscape Transformation - The global trade structure is undergoing a profound transformation towards a multipolar development, moving away from reliance on the US-China economic model to a more decentralized network of regional trade alliances [23][30]. - Countries aiming to secure future discourse power must position themselves as essential hubs within these diverse trade networks [23].

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The Trump administration's tariff policy includes three types of tariffs: national tariffs, industry-specific tariffs, and tariffs to close loopholes in transshipment [5][7] - Four categories of countries are identified based on their trade relations with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to over 30% [7][8] - The new tariff system emphasizes additional conditions, such as commitments to invest in the US and open markets [8][9] Group 2: Impact on China and Industries - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will lead to a decrease in US imports, which may cause a decline in China's export levels in the second half of the year [3][11] - If China manages to limit the cumulative tariff to 10%, its actual import share may rebound, while transshipment tariffs will lead to increased production capacity overseas [3][11] - Industries such as home appliances, light manufacturing, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the tariff changes [3][19] Group 3: Tariff Cost Burden - The effective import tariff rate in the US has reached its highest level since 1934, but the import price index has not shown a significant decline [32][35] - Exporters currently bear about 13% of the tariff costs, with US importers and consumers absorbing the majority [35][41] - The burden on consumers is expected to rise, with projections indicating that up to two-thirds of the tariff costs may eventually be passed on to them [51][53] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to be limited, with an estimated increase in inflation of only 0.4-0.8 percentage points by the end of the year [62][64] - The focus should shift from inflation concerns to potential job market deterioration, which may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [64]

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US imposing a 15% tariff and Japan committing to invest $550 billion [1] - The agreement includes Japan's purchase of $8 billion worth of US goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, 100 Boeing aircraft, and additional defense equipment [1] - The deal serves as a template for other countries like the EU and South Korea, pressuring them to accelerate negotiations to achieve lower tariffs [1] Group 2 - Experts believe the US-Japan trade agreement sets a benchmark for tariffs below a prohibitive level, with a target of keeping tariffs under 20% [2] - The EU and South Korea are expected to intensify their negotiations, particularly in the automotive sector, with reports suggesting the US is close to a similar agreement with the EU [2][3] - Japan successfully negotiated a reduction in automotive export tariffs from 25% to 15%, indicating the flexibility of the Trump administration in trade negotiations [3] Group 3 - Historical precedents suggest that the Trump administration may be willing to negotiate on industry tariffs, as seen in past adjustments to steel and aluminum tariffs [3] - Despite the emphasis on "buying American" and investment commitments, analysts remain cautious about the actual economic impact of these promises [4] - Previous commitments have often been re-packaged plans with limited real economic effects, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of such agreements [4]

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：特朗普继续与美国商务部长卢特尼克就行业关税进行沟通。 ...

韩国贸易官员：美国在将行业关税纳入贸易协议方面非常谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean Trade Minister is engaging in discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo regarding manufacturing cooperation, emphasizing the necessity of including industry tariffs in U.S. trade agreements [1] Group 1 - The South Korean Trade Minister will hold further talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo on Wednesday [1] - The discussions focus on collaboration in the manufacturing sector [1] - The inclusion of industry tariffs is highlighted as a critical aspect of the U.S. trade agreement [1]

据ABC新闻：美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，电子产品将纳入即将出台的行业关税，并将在一个月左右 的时间内实施。制药行业关税将在下个月或两个月内出台。 ...